Easing Inflation Brings Hope To Restaurants In 2025 But Uncertainty Lingers: Analyst Upgrades Shake Shack And Dutch Bros
Easing Inflation Brings Hope To Restaurants In 2025 But Uncertainty Lingers: Analyst Upgrades Shake Shack And Dutch Bros
Despite these challenges, most have shared optimistic outlooks on recent sales trends.Barclays analyst Jeffrey A. Bernstein has outlined top themes to watch out for in the U.S. restaurants in 2025.
巴克莱银行分析师杰弗里·A·伯恩斯坦列出了2025年美国餐厅需要关注的主要主题。
The restaurant industry, according to the analyst, is experiencing mixed results as it navigates a volatile environment heading into the third quarter of 2024.
根据分析师的说法，餐厅行业在进入2024年第三季度时正面临混合的结果，正在应对动荡的环境。
A recent preview highlighted that many companies have struggled to meet expectations regarding same-store sales and earnings per share, noted the analyst.
最近的预览强调，许多公司在同店销售和每股收益方面难以满足预期，分析师指出。
Despite these challenges, most have shared optimistic outlooks on recent sales trends.
尽管面临这些挑战，大多数公司对最近的销售趋势持乐观态度。
As 2024 progresses, the key focus remains the consumer outlook, which has been unpredictable. On a positive note, unemployment rates remain near record lows, and wages continue to rise, contributing to a healthy increase in real disposable income, the analyst added.
随着2024年的推进，关键关注点仍然是消费前景，而其不稳定。不过好的一面是，失业率仍接近历史低点，工资继续上涨，这有助于实际可支配收入的健康增长，分析师补充道。
Inflation has also eased, allowing the Federal Reserve to slow down its rate changes, said the analyst.
通货膨胀也有所缓解，这使得联邦储备能够放慢加息步伐，分析师表示。
However, the analyst warned that the cost of living, including high rent and basic expenses, continues to pressure consumers.
然而，分析师警告说，生活成本，包括高租金和基本开支，继续给消费者施加压力。
Consumer confidence has remained lower than pre-pandemic levels, and many restaurants are working to improve traffic by offering greater value in response to inflation concerns.
消费者信心仍低于疫情前水平，许多餐厅正努力通过提供更大的价值来改善客流，以应对通货膨胀相关的担忧。
Commodity inflation, excluding coffee, has shown signs of normalization and December 2024 saw a year-on-year increase of around 16%, mainly driven by coffee prices, asserted the analyst.
商品通胀（不包括咖啡）已经出现正常化的迹象，2024年12月同比增长约16%，主要受到咖啡价格驱动，分析师表示。
Restaurants are expecting mid-single-digit inflation in 2025, assuming current prices hold and the industry is hoping for a more stable cost environment that can support margins amidst uncertain sales projections, added the analyst.
餐厅预计在2025年将出现中个位数的通胀，假设当前价格持稳，行业希望能够在销售预测不确定的情况下，获得一个更稳定的成本环境以支持利润，分析师补充道。
The analyst expressed concern about labor costs and said while wage inflation has slowed from the peaks seen during 2021 and 2022, December 2024 saw a year-on-year wage increase of 10.3%.
分析师对劳动力成本表示担忧，并指出尽管工资通胀已从2021年和2022年看到的高峰有所放缓，但2024年12月同比工资增长达到10.3%。
In menu pricing, restaurants are easing the aggressive price hikes seen in recent years and overall, the industry is moving towards smaller price increases as commodity and labor inflation stabilizes, said the analyst.
在菜单定价方面，餐厅正在放缓近年来激烈的价格上涨，整体行业趋向于较小的价格上涨，因为商品和劳动力通胀逐渐稳定，分析师表示。
The analyst upgraded both Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:SHAK) and Dutch Bros Inc (NYSE:BROS) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
分析师将Shake Shack Inc（纽交所：SHAK）和Dutch Bros Inc（纽交所：BROS）的评级从均衡上调至超配。
The analyst downgraded Bloomin' Brands Inc (NASDAQ:BLMN) and Dine Brands Global Inc (NYSE:DIN) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
分析师将Bloomin' Brands Inc（纳斯达克：BLMN）和Dine Brands Global Inc（纽交所：DIN）的评级从超配下调至均衡。
Photo via Shutterstock.
图片来自shutterstock。