Psychiatric Hospital Operator Acadia Healthcare Earns Upgrade Amid Expected Recovery In 2025
Psychiatric Hospital Operator Acadia Healthcare Earns Upgrade Amid Expected Recovery In 2025
Medicare Advantage (MA) managed care organizations (MCOs) are still facing higher costs, but the funding situation for MA could improve in the first half of 2025, offering a clearer path for profit recovery in 2026 and beyond.KeyBanc Capital Markets writes that Healthcare Services stocks are expected to see significant changes in 2025.
KeyBanc 资本市场表示，医疗服务 股票预计在2025年将发生重大变化。
Strong volumes, increased enrollment in health insurance exchanges (HIX) and Medicaid-directed payment programs (DPPs) will likely benefit hospitals.
强劲的成交量、健康保险交易所（HIX）和针对医疗补助的支付计划（DPP） enrollment 增加将可能惠及医院。
However, the uncertain policies under Trump may still affect investor confidence.
然而，特朗普政府的不确定政策仍可能影响投资者信心。
Medicare Advantage (MA) managed care organizations (MCOs) are still facing higher costs, but the funding situation for MA could improve in the first half of 2025, offering a clearer path for profit recovery in 2026 and beyond.
医疗保险优势（MA）管理照护组织（MCOs）仍面临较高成本，但MA的资金情况可能在2025年上半年改善，为2026年及以后的利润回升提供更清晰的路径。
As the industry approaches 2025, KeyBanc analyst Matthew Gillmor says he prefers stocks tied to higher patient volumes that are somewhat protected from policy changes.
随着行业接近2025年，KeyBanc 分析师马修·吉尔摩表示他更偏好与较高患者成交量相关且在政策变化中受到一定保护的股票。
The analyst expects patient volumes to stay high due to strong HIX enrollment and ongoing post-COVID trends, which will benefit hospitals' earnings but may limit earnings growth for MCOs.
分析师预计，由于强劲的HIX enrollment和持续的后疫情趋势，患者成交量将保持高位，这将有利于医院的盈利，但可能限制MCOs的盈利增长。
KeyBanc highlights that volume comparisons will be tough and will monitor proprietary data for trend changes.
KeyBanc 指出，成交量的比较将会很困难，并将监控专有数据以寻找趋势变化。
Healthcare policy will be a key focus in the first half of 2025, with HIX subsidies and Medicaid DPP being important for hospitals and the 2026 MA rate notice as well as Humana Inc's (NYSE:HUM) lawsuit being key for MCOs.
医疗保健政策将在2025年上半年成为关键焦点，HIX补贴和医疗补助DPP对医院而言至关重要，而2026年的MA费率通知以及人寿保险公司（NYSE:HUM）的诉讼则对MCOs至关重要。
KeyBanc expects the policy situation for MA MCOs to improve by April, with UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) being the top choice to benefit from this. Additionally, sentiment around behavioral hospitals, particularly Acadia Healthcare Co (NASDAQ:ACHC), is likely at its lowest.
KeyBanc 预计到四月MA MCOs的政策形势将改善，UnitedHealth Group Inc (纽交所:UNH) 是最受益的首选。此外，围绕行为医院的情绪，尤其是阿卡迪亚医疗保健公司 (纳斯达克:ACHC)，可能处于低谷。
KeyBanc has upgraded Acadia Healthcare to Overweight from Sector Weight with a price target of $70, citing meaningful higher inflection during 2025 as investors gain visibility into the potential 2026 EBITDA acceleration and valuation returns to historical ranges.
KeyBanc 已将阿卡迪亚医疗保健的评级从行业板块权重上调至超配，目标价格为70美元，指出2025年期间的显著更高转折，因投资者对2026年EBITDA加速的潜力有了可见度，估值回到了历史范围内。
Acadia's stock lagged behind the market in 2024 due to external challenges and rising startup expenses, which hurt EBITDA in 2024 and 2025. The analyst believes these issues will improve by 2026, as new beds added in 2024-2025 start to pay off and the increase in startup losses during 2025 slows down or stabilizes.
由于外部挑战和不断上升的启动费用，阿卡迪亚的股票在2024年落后于市场，这影响了2024年和2025年的EBITDA。这位分析师认为这些问题到2026年将会改善，因为在2024-2025年新增的床位开始产生效益，并且在2025年的启动损失增加的速度减缓或稳定。
Price Action: ACHC stock is up 1.45% at $45.50 at last check Tuesday.
价格动态：截至周二最后检查，ACHC 股票上涨1.45%，现报45.50美元。
