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Rate Cuts Could Mean Big Gains for These Canadian Stocks

Rate Cuts Could Mean Big Gains for These Canadian Stocks

降息可能意味着这些加拿大股票的巨大收益
The Motley Fool ·  01/07 16:00

Interest rates have been on the decline thus far in 2025. Most investors are aware that the Bank of Canada has been among the most aggressive of the G7 central banks in cutting rates, as the Canadian economy has slowed more considerably than many of its peers due to the importance of the housing sector on overall domestic economic activity.

到目前为止,2025年的利率一直在下降。大多数投资者都知道,加拿大银行在G7中央银行中是最积极降息的,因为由于住房行业对整体国内经济活动的重要性,加拿大经济放缓比许多同行更为明显。

However, as the Bank of Canada continues to cut rates and signals that more rate cuts could be on the horizon, Canadian investors may want to think differently about their potential investing options. In this article, I'm going to highlight two very different businesses (one growth stock and one dividend-paying bank stock) that may benefit in different ways from future interest rate cuts.

然而,随着加拿大银行继续降息并暗示可能会有进一步的降息,加拿大投资者可能需要重新考虑他们潜在的投资选项。在本文中,我将重点介绍两种截然不同的业务(一个成长股票和一个支付股息的银行股票),它们可能会以不同的方式受益于未来的利率下降。

Toronto-Dominion Bank

多伦多道明银行

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) is among the largest financial institutions in Canada, and is actually a bank with a strong presence in the U.S. market as well. This is the Canadian bank most investors looking for exposure to the U.S. market may gravitate toward, as the simple reality is that TD's footprint south of the border is larger than it is in Canada.

多伦多道明银行(TSX:TD)是加拿大最大的金融机构之一,实际上在美国市场也有着强大的存在。这家加拿大银行是大多数寻求进入美国市场的投资者可能倾向选择的银行,因为实际上道明银行在美国的足迹比在加拿大更大。

The company's core lending business certainly took a hit following the various Bank of Canada interest rate hikes over the past two years. Interest rate increases did what they were supposed to do, slowed down economic activity. For banks like TD that rely on continued growth to see underlying earnings growth, that's not a good thing.

公司的核心贷款业务在过去两年加拿大银行的多次加息后确实受到了打击。利率的上升达到了预期的效果,经济活动减缓了。对于像道明这样的银行而言,依赖持续增长来实现基础收益增长的情况并不好。

However, with lower interest rates comes the prospect of greater long-term growth in loan demand, as well as improved credit metrics for borrowers, many of whom have become increasingly indebted of late. Canadian household debt is among the highest in the G7, and this is presenting a problem for the system at this point.

然而,低利率带来了更大的贷款需求长期增长的前景,以及借款人的信贷指标改善,许多借款人近来债务不断增加。加拿大家庭债务在G7中是最高的,这在当前为系统带来了问题。

I think TD's status as one of the most efficient and innovative banks should position investors well to manage through any economic backdrop moving forward. The company has maintained profitability during previous hiking and cutting cycles, and I think this will be another one of those cycles to invest around. If we do see a significant drop moving forward, TD is a company I'd consider adding.

我认为道明作为最有效和最具创新性的银行之一的地位,应该能使投资者很好地应对未来的任何经济环境。公司在以往的加息和降息周期中保持了盈利能力,我认为这将是另一个可以投资的周期。如果我们确实看到未来出现显著下降,道明是我考虑增持的公司。

Shopify

shopify

The leading e-commerce platform provider in Canada (and in many parts of the world as well), Shopify (TSX:SHOP) is certainly worth considering as a potential rate cut beneficiary, for very different reasons than TD Bank. Yield curves and net interest margins aren't the story here. Rather, it's about how investors intrinsically value stocks, and how multiples are applied to higher-growth businesses overall.

作为加拿大领先的电子商务平台提供商(在世界许多地方也是如此),Shopify(TSX:SHOP)毫无疑问值得考虑作为潜在的利率下调受益者,这与TD银行的原因截然不同。这里的故事并不是收益曲线和净利差。而是投资者如何内在地评估股票,以及对整体高增长企业应用的倍数。

Indeed, during the rock-bottom interest rate environment of the pandemic, Shopify's valuation absolutely skyrocketed. When there's really no alternative in which to invest one's capital (outside of stocks) for a reasonable return, companies like Shopify look like a decent value at multiples that may otherwise seem daunting.

确实,在疫情期间的超低利率环境下,Shopify的估值绝对飙升。当几乎没有其他合理的投资选择(除了股票)为资本获取合理回报时,像Shopify这样的公司看起来在倍数上是一个不错的价值。

Of course, interest rate increases change that narrative, with stocks like Shopify beginning to look expensive and investors looking to rotate toward growth stocks with better perceived value.

当然,利率的上升改变了这一叙事,像Shopify这样的股票开始显得昂贵,投资者开始倾向于旋转到具有更好感知价值的成长股。

I'm of the view that as discount rates decrease, valuations for companies like Shopify should get a boost. In this sort of environment, a barbell approach with more value-oriented rate cut beneficiaries and higher-growth companies that could see valuation premium surges could be the way to go.

我认为,随着贴现率的降低,像Shopify这样的公司的估值应该会得到提升。在这种环境下,以更多价值导向的利率下调受益者和可能会看到估值溢价激增的高增长公司为主的哑铃策略可能是可行的。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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