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Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600316) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600316) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

洪都航空股份有限公司(SHSE:600316)股市表现强劲,但基本面看起来不确定:未来将如何发展?
Simply Wall St ·  01/08 13:52

Most readers would already be aware that Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry's (SHSE:600316) stock increased significantly by 14% over the past three months. However, we decided to pay attention to the company's fundamentals which don't appear to give a clear sign about the company's financial health. In this article, we decided to focus on Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry's ROE.

大多数读者可能已经意识到洪都航空(SHSE:600316)的股票在过去三个月中上涨了14%。然而,我们决定关注公司的基本面,而这些基本面似乎没有明确显示出公司的财务健康状况。在本文中,我们决定专注于洪都航空的ROE。

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

净资产收益率(ROE)是一项测试,旨在评估公司如何有效地增长其价值并管理投资者资金。换句话说,它是一个盈利能力比率,衡量由公司股东提供的资本的回报率。

How Is ROE Calculated?

净资产收益率怎么计算?

The formula for ROE is:

roe的公式是:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

股东权益回报率 = 净利润(来自持续运营)÷ 股东权益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry is:

因此,根据上述公式,洪都航空的ROE为:

0.7% = CN¥38m ÷ CN¥5.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

0.7% = CN¥3800万 ÷ CN¥53亿(基于截至2024年9月的过去十二个月)。

The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every CN¥1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CN¥0.01 in profit.

‘回报’是指年度利润。这意味着在每CN¥1的股东权益下,公司创造了CN¥0.01的利润。

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

ROE为什么对净利润增长很重要?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

到目前为止,我们已经了解到ROE是衡量公司盈利能力的指标。根据公司重新投资或“保留”的利润数量及其有效性,我们能够估计公司盈利增长潜力。假设其他一切保持不变,ROE和利润保留率越高,相对于不一定拥有这些特征的公司而言,公司的增长率就越高。

Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry's Earnings Growth And 0.7% ROE

洪都航空的收益增长和0.7%的ROE

It is quite clear that Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry's ROE is rather low. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 5.1%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 16% seen by Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry over the last five years is not surprising. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

洪都航空的ROE相当低,甚至与行业平均ROE 5.1%相比,该公司的ROE也显得非常糟糕。在这种情况下,洪都航空在过去五年中净利润下降16%并不令人意外。我们认为,可能还有其他方面对公司的收益前景产生负面影响。例如,公司有非常高的分红派息比率,或者面临竞争压力。

That being said, we compared Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 13% in the same 5-year period.

话虽如此,我们将洪都航空的表现与行业进行了比较,当我们发现该公司的收益在下降时,而行业在同一五年期间以13%的速度增长其收益时,我们感到担忧。

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SHSE:600316 Past Earnings Growth January 8th 2025
SHSE:600316 过去的收益增长 2025年1月8日

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

收益增长是股票估值的一个重要因素。投资者接下来需要判断的是,预期的收益增长或其缺乏是否已经反映在股价中。这将帮助他们判断这只股票的未来是光明还是暗淡。如果你在思考洪都航空的估值,可以参考其市盈率与行业的比较。

Is Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

洪都航空是否有效利用其留存收益?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 33% (that is, a retention ratio of 67%), the fact that Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry's earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

尽管正常的三年中位派息比例为33%(即留存比例为67%),但洪都航空的收益却出现缩减,这一点相当令人困惑。因此,可能还有其他解释。例如,公司的业务可能正在恶化。

Moreover, Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth.

此外,洪都航空至少已经支付了十年以上的分红,这表明管理层必须意识到股东更喜欢分红而不是收益增长。

Summary

总结

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. You can see the 3 risks we have identified for Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

总体而言,我们对洪都航空的看法褒贬不一。尽管公司有很高的利润留存率,但其较低的收益率可能正在阻碍其盈利增长。总结一下,我们对这家公司需要保持谨慎,其中一种方法是关注业务的风险特征。您可以通过访问我们的平台,在这里免费查看我们为洪都航空识别出的三个风险。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇来自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,采用无偏见的方法,我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。它不构成对任何股票的买入或卖出建议,也未考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。

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