Bitcoin Could Drop As Low As $75,000 If It Fills This Liquidity Gap, Expert Warns
Bitcoin Could Drop As Low As $75,000 If It Fills This Liquidity Gap, Expert Warns
A significant gap in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (NASDAQ:CME) Bitcoin futures contract near $75,000, suggests a potential downside move for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) in the short-term, according to Joe McCann, founder of Asymmetric.
根据Asymmetric创始人Joe McCann的说法,芝加哥商品交易所(纳斯达克:CME)比特币期货合约在$75,000附近存在显著缺口,这暗示比特币在短期内可能会下跌。
What Happened: McCann's analysis from Tuesday paints a bearish picture, shifting away from previous bullish sentiments, as he notes a confluence of technical and macroeconomic indicators pointing toward a near-term price correction.
发生了什么:McCann周二的分析描绘了一幅看淡的图景,远离了之前的看好情绪,因为他注意到多项技术性和宏观经济因子的汇聚,指向近期价格修正。
McCann highlighted several factors supporting his short-term bearish outlook, including technical patterns, market liquidity and broader economic conditions.
McCann强调了多个支持他短期看淡前景的因素,包括技术模式、市场流动性和更广泛的经济状况。
"The month of December printed a shooting star candle," McCann noted, a technical signal that historically indicates bearish sentiment.
McCann指出:“12月份出现了一根射击之星蜡烛,”这是一种历史上通常表明看淡情绪的技术信号。
"There is a massive gap to be filled in the CME Bitcoin futures product...down near $75,000," he added.
他补充说:“CME比特币期货产品中有一个巨大的缺口要填补……大约在$75,000附近。”
According to McCann, Bitcoin's recent price action has shown weakness, with Tuesday's movement described as "a classic rejection beneath a multi-month regression channel."
根据McCann的说法,比特币最近的价格波动显示出疲软,周二的走势被描述为“在多个月的回归通道下的经典拒绝。”
He sought to highlight the significance of the 10-month moving average, which has historically acted as a pullback level during bull markets.
他试图强调10个月移动平均线的重要性,这在牛市期间历来作为回调水平。
"In this case, the 10 MA is right around...$75,000," McCann stated.
McCann表示:“在这种情况下,10 MA大约在……$75,000。”
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The bearish narrative isn't solely rooted in technical indicators. McCann also flagged a contraction in global liquidity, noting that "nearly $1 trillion in nominal terms" was drained last week alone.
看淡的局势并不仅仅根植于技术因子。麦坎还指出,全球货币流动性收缩,提到“上周几乎有1万亿美元名义货币流出”。
This tightening liquidity, compounded by a recent contraction in Tether's outstanding supply, adds to the uncertainty in the crypto market.
这种流动性的收紧,加上泰达币发行量的近期收缩,增加了加密市场的不确定性。
"Tether's supply peaked the day after the FOMC crashed the markets," McCann observed, marking a potential shift in sentiment.
麦坎观察到:“在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)使市场崩溃的第二天,泰达币的供应达到了顶峰,”这标志着情绪的潜在变化。
On the macroeconomic front, McCann drew attention to the U.S. dollar's unexpected strength, which he labeled a "problem for risk assets, especially Bitcoin."
在宏观经济方面,麦坎提到美元意外的强劲,他称其为“风险资产,尤其是比特币的问题”。
He elaborated on the peculiar market dynamics: "The $DXY actually moved up on a day the Fed cut interest rates...smashing through a multi-year resistance level that is now turning into support."
他详细说明了奇特的市场动态:“$DXY实际上在美联储降息的那天上涨……突破了一个多年的支撑位,现在变成了压力位。”
What's Next: Despite his current bearish stance, McCann remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory.
接下来:尽管他目前看淡,但麦坎对比特币的长期走势持乐观态度。
"Higher is my meme forever," he said, suggesting that Bitcoin's upward march to new all-time highs would resume in due time. However, for now, he emphasized a tactical approach. "The easy money is over. It's time to be tactical, and for now, I'm tactically bearish."
他说:“高是我永远的梗,”这表明比特币会在适当的时候恢复向新历史高点的上升。然而,目前他强调采取战术性的方式。“轻松赚钱的机会已经结束。现在是时候采取战术,而目前我则是战术性看淡。”
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该图片使用Midjourney人工智能创建。