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'No Rate Cuts In Q1 2025,' Strategist Says After Fed's December Minutes

'No Rate Cuts In Q1 2025,' Strategist Says After Fed's December Minutes

'战略家表示,在美联储的12月会议纪要后,2025年第一季度不会降息。
Benzinga ·  05:06

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting released on Wednesday show officials are uncertain about the path of future rate cuts, as President-elect Donald Trump's policies and how they could affect inflation remain unknown.

周三发布的美联储十二月会议纪要显示,官员们对未来降息的路径感到不确定,因为当选总统特朗普的政策及其可能对通货膨胀的影响尚不清楚。

Expert Ideas: Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, highlighted the Federal Reserve's use of the word "uncertain or a derivation thereof" 12 times throughout the official record from the Federal Open Market Committee and noted that participants find it increasingly difficult to map out a path for interest rates in the face of uncertainty.

专家观点:LPL Financial的首席经济学家杰弗里·罗奇强调,美联储在联邦公开市场委员会的官方记录中使用了“没有明确或者相关衍生词”这一说法12次,并指出参与者在不确定的情况下越来越难以规划利率路径。

Roach also pointed to "surprising" comments indicating Fed officials think "the strength of economic activity was unlikely to be a source of upward inflation pressures."

罗奇还指出,有“令人惊讶”的评论表明,美联储官员认为“经济活动的强劲不太可能成为通货膨胀上行压力的源头。”

He also referred to industry data that suggests hiring plans are softening and said markets could "get choppy" if Friday's payroll report surprises to the downside.

他还提到行业数据表明招聘计划正在减弱,并表示如果周五的非农就业报告低于预期,市场可能会“变得动荡。”

Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, projects the Fed to stay "on pause" for the next few meetings given ongoing sticky inflation and continued strength in the job market.

蓝筹股日报的首席技术策略师拉里·坦塔雷利预计,由于持续的高通胀和就业市场的持续强劲,美联储在接下来的几次会议上将保持“暂停”。

However, he also said there is "possible risk to the upside at 5.00% for 10-year yields" if Friday's nonfarm payrolls report comes in above forecast.

然而,他还表示,如果周五的非农就业报告超出预期,则存在“10年期国债收益率5.00%的上行风险。”

"Our view for investors is they should expect no rate cuts in Q1 2025 and 10-year US Treasury yields in the 4.50 to 5.00% range at least for the first quarter of 2025," Tentarelli wrote.

坦塔雷利写道:“我们对投资者的看法是,他们应该预计在2025年第一季度不会有降息,10年期美国国债收益率在4.50%到5.00%的区间内,至少在2025年第一季度。”

Markets React: Markets are ended Wednesday mixed following the release of the Fed minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.25% and the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) also finished marginally higher on the session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), was down 0.06% at the closing bell.

市场反应:周三,在美联储会议纪要发布后,市场呈现混合走势。道琼斯指数上涨0.25%,而通过SPDR 标普500指数ETF(纽交所:SPY)追踪的标普500指数也微幅上涨。以纳指100为主的纳斯达克,在通过纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(纳斯达克:QQQ)追踪时,收盘下跌0.06%。

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