Mohamed El-Erian Warns US Treasury Yields Poised To Hover Near 5% Through 2025, Maps Out Survival Strategy
Mohamed El-Erian Warns US Treasury Yields Poised To Hover Near 5% Through 2025, Maps Out Survival Strategy
Although significantly higher yields are a common theme across advanced economies, there have been notable country-specific trends.U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward march as prominent economist Mohamed El-Erian predicts yields could remain elevated through 2025, highlighting persistent inflation concerns and shifting market dynamics.
美国国债收益率持续上涨，著名经济学家穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安预测收益率可能会在2025年前保持高位，突显出持续的通胀担忧和市场动态的变化。
What Happened: The 20-year Treasury yield reached 4.96%, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.66% on Wednesday, reflecting broader moves across fixed-income markets.
发生了什么：20年期国债收益率达到了4.96%，而10年期国债收益率在周三为4.66%，反映了固定收益市场的广泛动向。
El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, suggested on the social media platform X that the 10-year Treasury yield could "spend quite a bit of 2025 in the 4.75-5% range," despite consistent inflows into fixed income from both domestic and international investors.
埃尔-埃里安，安联的首席经济顾问，在社交媒体平台X上建议，尽管国内外投资者持续流入固收，但10年期国债收益率可能在2025年有相当一段时间维持在4.75%-5%区间。
Although significantly higher yields are a common theme across advanced economies, there have been notable country-specific trends.
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) January 8, 2025
Take the UK, for example.
The increase in yields there has matched the US, leading to a slightly higher overall level for its 10-year Gilt.
However,... pic.twitter.com/vCio1LkKAk
虽然显著更高的收益率是发达经济体中的一个常见主题，但各国之间有一些显著的特定趋势。
——穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安 (@elerianm) 2025年1月8日
以英国为例。
那里的收益率上升与美国相匹配，导致其10年期国债的整体水平略高。
然而，... pic.twitter.com/vCio1LkKAk
The yield trajectory comes amid uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's rate path, particularly as markets digest potential policy shifts under the incoming administration. Recent Fed minutes revealed officials used variations of the word "uncertain" twelve times, according to Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
收益率的变化发生在关于联邦储备利率路径的不确定性中，特别是当市场消化新政府潜在的政策变化时。根据LPL Financial的首席经济学家杰弗里·罗奇的说法，最近的联邦会议纪要显示官员们使用了"不确定"这个词的变体十二次。
Speaking on CNBC, El-Erian downplayed concerns about inflation readings being "hotter than expected," arguing that current inflation targets may be outdated. This perspective aligns with some Fed officials' views that economic strength may not necessarily fuel inflationary pressures.
在CNBC上，埃尔-埃里安淡化了对通胀数据"高于预期"的担忧，认为当前的通胀目标可能已经过时。这一观点与一些联邦官员的看法一致，他们认为经济的强劲不一定会推动通胀压力。
Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, expects the Federal Reserve to maintain current rates through early 2025. "Investors should expect no rate cuts in Q1 2025 and 10-year US Treasury yields in the 4.50 to 5.00% range," he noted.
蓝筹股日报趋势报告的首席技术策略师拉里·滕塔雷利预计联邦储备将在2025年初维持当前利率。他指出，"投资者应该预期2025年第一季度不会降息，10年期美国国债收益率在4.50%到5.00%区间内。"
Why It Matters: Markets showed mixed reactions to these developments. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) closed slightly lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a modest 0.25% gain.
重要性：市场对这些发展表现出参差不齐的反应。SPDR 标普500指数ETF（纽交所：SPY）和纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust（纳斯达克：QQQ）小幅收低，而道琼斯指数则实现了0.25%的适度涨幅。
The yield environment suggests investors may need to adapt their strategies. El-Erian advocates for "bar-belled investment portfolios" and bottom-up, name-driven investing rather than broad market or thematic approaches in the volatile year ahead.
收益环境表明投资者可能需要调整他们的策略。埃尔-埃里安提倡"双头投资组合"和自下而上的、以个股为驱动的投资，而不是在动荡的一年中使用广泛的市场或主题性方法。
Extending what already has been quite a move in the last thirty days, the yield on the 10-year US government bond is trading this morning above 4.70% on the back of issues relating to inflation, growth, and new issuance.
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) January 8, 2025
Note that this move is notwithstanding many months of solid... pic.twitter.com/j9jZLxFT2V
在过去30天已经发生的较大变动基础上，10年期美国国债收益率今天早上交易价格超过4.70%，这是由于与通胀、增长和新发债务相关的问题。
——穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安 (@elerianm) 2025年1月8日
注意，这一变动是尽管经历了几个月的稳健...... pic.twitter.com/j9jZLxFT2V
- Jim Cramer Warns On 'Quantum Stories' As Stocks Plunge: 'We Need You Out Before The Froth Goes Away'
- 吉姆·克雷默警告"量子故事"随着股票暴跌: "我们需要你们在泡沫消失之前退出"
Image Via Flickr
图片来源于Flickr
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
免责声明：本内容部分使用人工智能工具生成，并经Benzinga编辑审核发布。
