Tesla Bull Gary Black Warns Against Inflated Optimus Robot Assumptions: Get Pounded Each Time 'I Try To Right-Size Expectations'
Tesla Bull Gary Black Warns Against Inflated Optimus Robot Assumptions: Get Pounded Each Time 'I Try To Right-Size Expectations'
Black defended his conservative stance, pointing to Tesla's recent market performance. "TSLA has underperformed for the past three years because expectations were too high," Black wrote on X, noting that Tesla shares gained 12% compared to the Nasdaq 100's 36% rise during that period.Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investor Gary Black cautioned against setting unrealistic expectations for the company's Optimus robot program on Thursday, sparking debate about the electric vehicle maker's valuation metrics and growth prospects.
特斯拉公司（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）投资者加里·布莱克周四警告说，不要对公司的擎天柱机器人计划设定不切实际的预期，这引发了关于这家电动汽车制造商估值指标和增长前景的辩论。
What Happened: Black, managing partner of The Future Fund LLC, calculated that Tesla's planned production of 500,000 Optimus robots by 2027 would add approximately $0.70 to earnings per share, assuming a $30,000 average selling price and 20% gross margin. This would supplement his projected core EPS of $7.70 for that year.
发生了什么：未来基金有限责任公司的管理合伙人布莱克计算出，假设平均售价为3万美元，毛利率为20％，特斯拉计划到2027年生产50万台擎天柱机器人，每股收益将增加约0.70美元。这将补充他当年预计的7.70美元核心每股收益。
The analysis drew pushback from Dave Lee, host of Dave Lee on Investing, who argued that successful Optimus deployment would dramatically increase Tesla's price-to-earnings multiple due to growth potential rather than just incremental earnings.
该分析遭到了戴夫·李论投资的主持人戴夫·李的反对，他认为，Optimus的成功部署将大大提高特斯拉的市盈倍数，这要归因于增长潜力，而不仅仅是增量收益。
Black defended his conservative stance, pointing to Tesla's recent market performance. "TSLA has underperformed for the past three years because expectations were too high," Black wrote on X, noting that Tesla shares gained 12% compared to the Nasdaq 100's 36% rise during that period.
布莱克为自己的保守立场辩护，指出了特斯拉最近的市场表现。布莱克在X上写道：“由于预期过高，TSLA在过去三年中表现不佳，” 他指出，特斯拉股价上涨了12％，而纳斯达克100指数同期的涨幅为36％。
"Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get pounded on by TSLA uberbulls for being too cautious, when in reality even my forecasts have been too bullish over the past three years," Black wrote.
布莱克写道：“每当我试图调整预期时，我都会因为过于谨慎而受到TSLA超级多头的抨击，而实际上，在过去的三年中，即使是我的预测也过于乐观。”
One can clearly see this in TSLA FY'25 and FY'26 earnings estimates, which have come down -39% and -45% over the past 12 months, as the market figured out TSLA's long-term projection of 50% compounded volume growth was too high. Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get... pic.twitter.com/YkURbaUHnS
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 9, 2025
人们可以在TSLA25财年和26财年的收益估计中清楚地看到这一点，在过去的12个月中，TSLA分别下降了-39％和-45％，因为市场认为TSLA对50％的复合销量增长的长期预测过高。每当我努力调整预期值时，我都会得到... pic.twitter.com/ykurbauhns
— 加里·布莱克 (@garyblack00) 2025 年 1 月 9 日
Why It Matters: The debate follows CEO Elon Musk's announcement that Tesla aims to produce several thousand Optimus robots in 2025, scaling to 50,000-100,000 units in 2026 and potentially 500,000 in 2027.
为何重要：这场辩论是在首席执行官埃隆·马斯克宣布特斯拉的目标是在2025年生产数千个擎天柱机器人，到2026年扩大到5万至10万台，并可能在2027年扩大到50万至50万台之后展开的。
Bank of America analyst John Murphy recently valued Tesla's Optimus segment between $14 billion and $95 billion in his sum-of-parts analysis, representing just 2% of Tesla's total estimated value. Murphy sees greater potential in Tesla's robotaxi and Full Self-Driving capabilities, which he estimates could comprise over 75% of the company's future value.
美国银行分析师约翰·墨菲最近在他的总和分析中估值特斯拉的擎天柱板块在140亿美元至950亿美元之间，仅占特斯拉总估计价值的2％。墨菲认为，特斯拉的机器人出租车和全自动驾驶能力具有更大的潜力，他估计这可能占该公司未来价值的75％以上。
"If investors want TSLA stock to stop underperforming, they need to stop pressuring analysts to push estimates ever higher," Black emphasized, citing that Tesla's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates have declined by 39% and 45% respectively over the past year.
布莱克强调说：“如果投资者希望TSLA股票停止表现不佳，他们就需要停止向分析师施压，要求他们进一步推高预期。” 他指出，特斯拉2025年和2026财年的收益预期在过去一年中分别下降了39％和45％。
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