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First Interest Rate Cut May Not Come Until June 'If At All,' Economist Warns As Fed Holds Steady

First Interest Rate Cut May Not Come Until June 'If At All,' Economist Warns As Fed Holds Steady

经济学家警告,联邦储备保持不变,首次利率下调可能要到6月才会出现,"如果真的会出现的话"。
Benzinga ·  01/29 21:11

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% on Wednesday, following a series of three consecutive rate cuts that began in September. Here's a look at how experts see the Federal Reserve's path ahead.

周三,联邦储备银行将利率保持在4.25%至4.5%的区间内,这一决策是在自九月份以来连续三次降息之后作出的。以下是专家们对联邦储备未来路径的看法。

Expert Ideas: Multiple economists noted that the language in the Fed's policy statement had turned slightly more hawkish as "progress" had been removed.

专家观点:多位经济学家指出,联邦储备政策声明中的语言略显鹰派,因为“进展”一词已被去除。

The statement released Wednesday reads, "Inflation remains somewhat elevated," a change from the prior statement which said that "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated."

周三发布的声明中写道:“通货膨胀依然高企,”这一表述与之前的声明有所不同,后者表示“通货膨胀已朝着委员会2%目标取得进展,但依然高企。”

Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said that the Federal Reserve is likely being cautious as they wait to see if policy changes from the Trump administration, including higher tariffs and tighter immigration regulations, lead to higher inflation.

联信银行首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯表示,联邦储备可能会保持谨慎,等待特朗普政府的政策变化是否会导致更高的通货膨胀,包括提高关税和收紧移民法规。

Investors are now pricing in a 30% probability of a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, a 45% chance in June, a 28.3% chance in September, and a 17% probability of a cut in December.

投资者目前预计,在联邦储备三月份的会议上降息的概率为30%,六月份为45%,九月份为28.3%,而十二月份降息的概率为17%。

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, sees the first possible rate cut of 25 basis points coming in June and another quarter-point cut in December.

RSM首席经济学家约瑟夫·布鲁苏埃拉斯预计,首次可能的降息25个基点将在六月份发生,另一个25个基点的降息将在十二月份。

"We think the first possible date for any rate cuts that might come this year, if at all, is June," Brusuelas said.

布鲁苏埃拉斯表示:“我们认为,今年可能发生的任何降息的首次可能日期是六月份。”

Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, called Wednesday's pause from the Fed a "non-event" for markets and echoed Brusuelas' call for two 25-basis point rate cuts, one in June and one in December.

蓝筹股日报的首席技术策略师拉里·坦塔雷利称周三联邦储备的暂停对市场而言是一次“非事件”,并呼应布鲁苏埃拉斯对六月份和十二月份各降息25个基点的预期。

However, he cautioned that "Fed moves will really be based on future incoming payrolls data and inflation data."

但是,他警告说:“美联储的举动将真正基于未来的就业数据和通胀数据。”

Markets React: All major U.S. indices were down on Wednesday with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), tracking the S&P 500, down 0.45% at $601.81 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, down 0.19% at $520.83.

市场反应:周三所有主要的美国指数都下跌,跟踪标普500的SPDR 标普500指数ETF(纽交所:SPY)下跌0.45%,报601.81美元,跟踪纳斯达克100指数的纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(纳斯达克:QQQ)下跌0.19%,报520.83美元。

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Image: Shutterstock

图片:shutterstock

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