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Red-Hot U.S. economy drives global inflation, forcing foreign banks to act

Red-Hot U.S. economy drives global inflation, forcing foreign banks to act

火热的美国经济推动全球通胀,迫使外国银行采取行动
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/06/17 09:08

By Tom Fairless in Frankfurt and Paul Hannon in London

汤姆·费利斯(Tom Fairless)法兰克福和保罗·汉农(Paul Hannon)伦敦

A booming U.S. economy that is driving inflation higher around the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite the public health crisis and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.

蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高世界各地的通货膨胀率,推高美元,迫使一些央行提高利率,尽管它们自己的国家存在公共健康危机和不完全的经济复苏。

The world's central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Global stock markets fell on Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect to raise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.

世界各国央行正寄望于美国联邦储备委员会(美联储,FED)将如何应对通胀上升,它们担心陷入美国经济非同寻常的扩张的逆流中.全球股市周四下跌,此前美联储官员暗示,随着美国经济升温,他们预计将在2023年底之前加息,早于3月份的预期。

A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.

以美联储为中心的全球利率上升有可能扼杀一些地方的经济复苏,特别是在新兴市场债务上升的情况下。

The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year's shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.

美国经济规模占全球国内生产总值(GDP)的近四分之一,其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的拉动作用。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对世界经济仍在从去年的冲击中复苏至关重要。根据周三公布的预测,美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。

Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities' prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.

最近几周,俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行纷纷加息,部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂竭尽全力满足美国的需求,从锡到铜的各种大宗商品价格飙升。

"With all the consequences of the public health crisis, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening," said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.

伦敦牛津经济研究院的经济学家Tamara Basic Vasiljev说:“考虑到公共卫生危机的种种后果,这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”

A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.

美国经济繁荣通过促进美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀,并使美元走强,这收紧了全球金融状况,并对复苏起到了抑制作用。

The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollar hurts emerging-market economies that have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.

疼痛的感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体,同时帮助了欧洲和东亚较大的出口商,这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口产品变得更具竞争力。

In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.

在发达经济体,央行官员大多认为,除非消费者开始预期通胀将持续并要求加薪,否则通胀上升时期将被证明是暂时的。

While central banks don't see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.

虽然各国央行认为这不会很快发生,但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到意外。

"I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring," said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.

法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰扎(Luigi Speranza)表示:“我认为,这种对价格的暂时性冲击很有可能变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出,今年年底下一轮薪酬谈判开始时,德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。

Central banks in Europe and Japan need to match the Fed's dovishness or risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.

经济学家说,欧洲和日本的央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场,否则他们的货币可能会飙升,从而破坏经济复苏。如果事实证明通胀比预期更持久,围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破,这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。

To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics

- said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research at BlackRock.

为了防止欧元走强,[欧洲央行]需要与美联储(Federal Reserve)类似的鸽派立场,这可能是一场斗争,因为通胀和增长动态不同

--贝莱德宏观研究主管Elga Bartsch表示。

Emerging-market economies often don't have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies' and households' ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.

然而,新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发,也可能严重拖累这些国家的货币,并损害企业和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。

The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 "taper tantrum," in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.

美联储已经暗示,它将小心避免2013年的“缩减恐慌”(Taper Tantrum)重演。在2013年的“缩减恐慌”中,发展中国家的中央银行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出回应,原因是美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划,这让投资者感到意外。

So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent, and I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we'll try to be clear.

- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. 

因此,我们对这一过程的意图是,它将是有序的、有条不紊的和透明的,我可以告诉你,我们看到了提前很好地沟通我们的想法的真正价值。我们会尽量说清楚的。

-美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示。



But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.

但随着全球通胀加速,美联储开始改变路线,一些央行的考量正在改变。

Brazil's central bank unveiled a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase on Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.

巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点,并暗示未来可能会有更大幅度的加息,因为巴西央行正在努力应对8%以上的通胀率。

The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn't expect this to hinder economic growth.

俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%,本月通胀率加速至6%以上,为近五年来的最高水平。周二,俄罗斯州长纳比乌利纳(Elvira Nabiullina)说,俄罗斯将继续加息,预计这不会阻碍经济增长。

"We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don't clip the wings of a recovering economy," Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia's lower house of parliament. "Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation."

纳比乌利纳在俄罗斯议会下院的一次演讲中说,“我们保持低利率已经有相当长的一段时间了,以确保我们不会扼杀正在复苏的经济的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了.”

Turkey's central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeks as investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demands of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.

土耳其央行3月大幅上调主要利率至19%,以对抗两位数的通胀和不断贬值的里拉。但最近几周,土耳其里拉再次承压,投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的降息要求。

Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set -- the vegetables needed for Russia's beloved soup -- which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.

最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐--俄罗斯人喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜--对许多俄罗斯人来说,这是一个风向标。自今年年初以来,土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。

In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.

在贫穷国家,支出的较大部分通常用于食品和能源等必需品,因此当这些价格上涨时,政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。

Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway's central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.

斯堪的纳维亚半岛和韩国的央行已经发出信号,表示计划收紧货币政策,以抑制可能的资产泡沫,特别是在房地产领域。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月升息。

Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn't suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during 2020, but are seeing inflation rise.

包括匈牙利和捷克在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。2020年,它们没有遭受法国和西班牙等较大欧洲国家那样规模的收缩,但通胀正在上升。

Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the "taper tantrum."

摩根大通资产管理公司(JP Morgan Asset Management)固定收益首席投资官伊恩·斯蒂利(Iain Stealey)表示,美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”的重演。

"It is a very long, slow process...it's very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation," Mr. Stealey said.

“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行,很难不这么做,”斯蒂利说。

Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.

不过,经济学家表示,耐心的做法仍存在问题。

"This idea of letting inflation run hot...means that you're only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem," said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.

法国兴业银行(SociétéGénérale)首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔(Klaus Baader)表示:“让通胀高歌猛进的想法……意味着你只有在已经有通胀问题的时候才会意识到自己有通胀问题。”

Write to Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com and Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com

写信给Tom Fairless(tom.airless@wsj.com)和Paul Hannon(paul.hannon@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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June 17, 2021 08:35 ET (12:35 GMT)

2021年6月17日东部时间08:35(格林尼治标准时间12:35)

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