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TREASURIES-Yields lower after strong payroll data puts focus on Fed

TREASURIES-Yields lower after strong payroll data puts focus on Fed

美国国债收益率走低,此前强劲的非农就业数据使人们关注美联储
路透社 ·  2021/07/02 10:00

By Ross Kerber
   July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday after a strong payroll report left uncertainty about how the U.S. Federal Reserve might respond.
   The benchmark 10-year yield was down 2.4 basis points at 1.4559% in morning trading. That was slightly above its level before new Labor Department data showed U.S. job growth accelerated in June.
   Nonfarm payrolls increased by 850,000 jobs last month after rising 583,000 in May, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. The unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8% in May.
   Treasury yields initially spiked up on the strong job gains, then fell back. Market analysts said the trading reflected mixed interpretations about how the Fed might incorporate the new information as it decides how to end crisis-era bond-buying.
   Normally strong numbers would send yields higher, said Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy for TD Securities in New York. Of Friday's trading, she said, "I think the market is torn between whether to price in the market outlook or the Fed reaction."
   The minutes of the Fed's June 16-17 meeting, when officials opened debate on how to end crisis-era bond-buying and signalled interest rate increases were closer on the horizon than previously thought, are due out on Wednesday.
   Friday's trading left little changed a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes , seen as an indicator of economic expectations. It was at 121 basis points, about a basis point higher than Thursday's close.
   The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 1.4 basis points at 0.2435%.
  
   July 2 Friday 9:31AM New York / 1331 GMT
   Price Current Net
   Yield % Change
   (bps)  Three-month bills 0.0475 0.0482 0.000  Six-month bills 0.0525 0.0532 0.002  Two-year note 99-196/256 0.2435 -0.014  Three-year note 99-104/256 0.4533 -0.018  Five-year note 99-250/256 0.8798 -0.022  Seven-year note 100-54/256 1.2184 -0.027  10-year note 101-140/256 1.4559 -0.024  20-year bond 103-252/256 2.0057 -0.013  30-year bond 106-196/256 2.07 -0.016
  
   DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
   Last (bps) Net
   Change
   (bps)   U.S. 2-year dollar swap 7.50 -0.50   spread   U.S. 3-year dollar swap 11.50 -0.75   spread   U.S. 5-year dollar swap 7.75 -0.25   spread   U.S. 10-year dollar swap -2.00 0.00   spread   U.S. 30-year dollar swap -31.25 -0.25   spread
       (Reporting by Ross Kerber in Boston Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)  ((ross.kerber@thomsonreuters.com; (617) 856 4341; Reuters Messaging: Ross.Kerber.Reuters.com@Reuters.net)

罗斯·科伯(Ross Kerber)著路透7月2日电-美国公债收益率(殖利率)周五走低,此前强劲的非农就业报告令美国联邦储备委员会(美联储,FED)可能如何应对存在不确定性.在早盘交易中,基准10年期国债收益率下跌2.4个基点,至1.4559%。这略高于美国劳工部新数据显示美国6月就业增长加速之前的水平.美国劳工部周五在其备受关注的就业报告中表示,继5月份增加58.3万个就业岗位后,上月非农就业人数增加了85万个。失业率从5月的5.8%升至5.9%。美国国债收益率最初因强劲的就业增长而飙升,随后回落。市场分析师表示,这些交易反映出,对于美联储在决定如何结束危机时期的债券购买计划时,可能会如何纳入新的信息,各方的解读褒贬不一。道明证券(TD Securities)驻纽约的利率策略全球主管普里亚·米斯拉(Priya Misra)表示,通常强劲的数据将推高收益率。在谈到周五的交易时,她说,“我认为市场在是否计入市场前景和美联储的反应之间左右为难。”美联储6月16-17日会议纪要将于周三公布。官员们在会上就如何结束危机时期的债券购买展开了辩论,并暗示加息的时间比之前想象的更近。周五的交易几乎没有改变受到密切关注的美国公债收益率曲线的一部分,该曲线衡量的是两年期和10年期公债收益率之间的差距,该指标被视为经济预期的指标。报121个基点,较周四收盘价高出约一个基点。两年期美国国债收益率(通常与利率预期同步)下跌1.4%,至0.2435%。7月2日星期五上午9:31纽约/格林威治时间1331现价净额收益率%变化(Bp)三个月期国库券0.0475 0.0482 0.000六个月期国库券0.0525 0.0532 0.002两年期公债99-196/256 0.2435-0.014三年期公债99-104/256 0.4533-0.018五年期公债99-250/2560.8798-0.022七年期公债100-54/256 1.2184-0.027 10年期公债101-140/256 1.4559-0.024 20年期公债103-252/256 2.0057-0.013 30年期公债106-196/2562.07-0.016美元掉期价差最后(Bps)净额变化(Bp)美元2年期掉期7.50-0.50利差美元3年期掉期11.50-0.75利差5年期美元掉期7.75-0.25利差美元10年期掉期-2.00 0.00利差美元30年期掉期-31.25-0.25利差(Ross Kerber在波士顿编辑Chizu Nomiyama报道)(ross.kerber@thomsonreurs.com;(617)856 4341;路透社消息:Ross.Kerber.Reurs.com@reurs.net)

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