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Tesla stock ‘death cross’ is an indicator to wait this one out

Tesla stock ‘death cross’ is an indicator to wait this one out

特斯拉股票‘死亡十字’是等待这一结果的一个指标
InvestorPlace ·  2021/07/13 06:37

$Tesla, Inc.(TSLA.US)$ stock chart produced the first bearish “death cross” pattern in more than two years on Friday. The last time such a sign occurred, TSLA stock fell more than 40% within 65 days.

$Tesla,Inc.(TSLA.US)$上周五,股票图表出现了两年多来的首个看跌“死亡十字”形态。上一次出现这种迹象时,新浪特斯拉的股价在65天内暴跌了40%以上。

The 50-day moving average (DMA), one of the most-followed technical indicators of trends in price movement, fell to $629.66 from $630.44 at Thursday’s close. The 200-DMA, a key indicator by traders and market analysts for determining overall long-term market trends, rose to $630.76 from $629.61.

最受关注的价格走势技术指标之一的50日移动均线切入位跌至629.66美元,周四收盘时为630.44美元。200dma指数从629.61美元升至630.76美元,这是交易员和市场分析师判断整体长期市场趋势的关键指标。

That resulted in the snapping of a 20-month streak in which the 50-DMA has closed above the 200-DMA. Technical analysts know this point as a “death cross,” which often precedes further losses for the stock.

这导致了持续20个月的50-DMA收盘突破200-DMA的局面被打破。技术分析师将这一点称为“死亡十字”,这往往是该股进一步下跌的先兆。

There are several factors for this bearish sentiment. Automakers are aggressively entering the electric vehicle race, looking to take advantage of the industry’s future growth trajectory.

有几个因素导致了这种悲观情绪。汽车制造商正积极进入电动汽车竞赛,希望利用该行业未来的增长轨迹。

Meanwhile, China has been the world’s largest new energy vehicle (NEV) market by sales volume since 2015, and it’s a key battleground for Tesla. Elon Musk has had a great relationship with the country. But local challengers like $NIO Inc.(NIO.US)$, $XPeng Inc.(XPEV.US)$, and $li Auto Inc.(LI.US)$ are slowly gnawing away at Tesla’s market share.

与此同时,自2015年以来,中国一直是世界上销量最大的新能源汽车(NEV)市场,也是特斯拉的主战场。埃隆·马斯克与这个国家的关系一直很好。但当地的挑战者$蔚来。(NIO.US)$, $小鹏汽车-W公司(XPEV.US)$,及$理想汽车-W公司(LI.US)$正在慢慢蚕食特斯拉的市场份额。

Tesla’s stock hasn’t closed at a record since Jan. 26. Friday was nearly 26% below its high of $883.09. Meanwhile, all of the FAANG stocks have set fresh records in the past two weeks. Clearly, this is one of the rare occasions Tesla bulls have had to eat humble pie.

自1月26日以来,特斯拉的股票从未创下过收盘新高。上周五的价格比883.09美元的高点低了近26%。与此同时,FAANG的所有股票在过去两周都创下了新的纪录。显然,这是看好特斯拉的人为数不多的不得不接受谦逊馅饼的场合之一。

China Missteps Weighing on TSLA Stock Sentiment

中国失策拖累特斯拉股市人气

TSLA stock has outperformed the S&P 500 index by 1292.4% and its sector by 1242.8% over the past five years. But even multi-bagger stocks aren’t immune to major drawdowns.

特斯拉的股票表现优于标准普尔500指数在过去的五年中,其行业增长了1292.4%,增长了1242.8%。但即使是多套股也不能幸免于大幅下跌。

Over the last three months, TSLA stock is down 6.4%. There are several reasons to explain the drop. China is the largest new car market in the world and the largest market for new EVs. Tesla’s unparalleled success in China has helped Musk become among the world’s richest people. 

过去三个月,新浪特斯拉的股价下跌了6.4%。有几个原因可以解释下降的原因。中国是世界上最大的新车市场,也是最大的新电动车市场。特斯拉在中国取得的无与伦比的成功帮助马斯克跻身世界首富之列。

Looking ahead, China appears to hold the key for Tesla and most EV stocks. With that in mind, Tesla’s recent missteps in China are weighing on investor sentiment. The company was roundly criticized for handling a brake issue and had to issue a technical recall to fix an issue with its cruise control.

展望未来,中国似乎是特斯拉和大多数电动汽车股票的关键。考虑到这一点,特斯拉最近在中国的失误正在拖累投资者情绪。该公司因处理刹车问题而受到严厉批评,不得不进行技术召回,以修复其巡航控制系统的问题。

The cars didn’t have to go into any service shop for a fix, and the issue was handled through an over-the-air software update. Still, Tesla sells approximately 30% of its cars in China, made at its Shanghai factory. PR issues in such a big market will undoubtedly have an impact.

这些汽车不需要去任何维修店进行维修,这个问题是通过空中软件更新来处理的。尽管如此,特斯拉仍有大约30%的汽车在中国销售,这些汽车都是在上海工厂生产的。在如此大的市场中,公关问题无疑会产生影响。

Inflation Fears and Competition

通胀恐惧与竞争

The consumer prices index rose at an annual rate of 5% in May, up from 4.2% in April and the highest since August 2008. This is a natural consequence of the economy reopening and people returning to work.

5月消费者物价指数年增率为5%,高于4月的4.2%,为2008年8月以来最高。这是经济重新开放和人们重返工作岗位的自然结果。

It is also causing a broader correction in tech stocks. Investors value these stocks by how much future cash flow these companies can generate. As inflation goes up, the value of those future cash flows declines.

它还导致了一场科技股的更广泛回调。投资者对这些股票的估值取决于这些公司未来能产生多少现金流。随着通胀上升,这些未来现金流的价值会下降。

In addition, traditional automobile giants are all now firmly in the EV game. $General Motors Co(GM.US)$, $Ford Motor Co(F.US)$ and $VOLKSWAGEN A G(VWAGY.US)$ are making significant inroads in the space, expanding their product line and investing heavily in carving out market share for themselves.

此外,传统汽车巨头现在都牢牢地参与了电动汽车的游戏。$通用汽车(通用汽车美国)$, $福特汽车公司(F.US)$$大众汽车(ADR)(VWAG.US)$它们在这一领域取得了重大进展,扩大了产品线,并投入巨资为自己开拓市场份额。

$Amazon.Com Inc(AMZN.US)$ is doing its thing with delivery vans with privately held Rivian. That collaboration is expected to produce up to 100,000 electric delivery trucks. The first 10,000 by the end of 2022, and the remaining 90,000 by 2030.

$亚马逊(AMZN.US)$正在用私人持股的送货车做事情Rivian。这一合作预计将生产多达10万辆电动送货卡车。到2022年底,第一个1万人,到2030年,剩下的9万人。

All of that means one thing, more competition for Tesla in the coming months. And when you add a semiconductor chip shortage affecting several industries, including the EV sector, you will understand why investors are taking their profits and investing elsewhere.

所有这一切都意味着一件事,未来几个月特斯拉将面临更多竞争。当您添加一个半导体芯片短缺影响到包括电动汽车行业在内的几个行业,你会理解为什么投资者将利润转移到其他地方投资。

Before moving to the next section, it is also important to highlight recovery plays. For the last year, several industries bore the brunt of this crisis. However, these companies are emerging from the shadows and are poised to do exceedingly well in the current fiscal year and beyond. Undoubtedly, value investors turn their attention toward these stocks, thereby reducing their holdings in risky bets like Tesla, another factor why TSLA stock is trending downward.

在进入下一节之前,还必须强调恢复播放。去年,几个行业在这场危机中首当其冲。然而,这些公司正从阴影中走出来,并准备在本财年及以后表现得非常好。毫无疑问,价值投资者将注意力转向这些股票,从而减少了对特斯拉等高风险押注的投资,这也是特斯拉股价下跌的另一个因素。

First Time for Everything

一切都是第一次

Tesla, the bellwether for the EV industry, is in dire straits for the first time in a long time. You will not hear this often. But it’s best to let TSLA stock cool off a bit more before adding more to your portfolio.

电动汽车行业的领头羊特斯拉很长一段时间以来首次陷入困境。你不会经常听到这样的话。但在增加投资组合之前,最好先让新浪特斯拉的股票冷却一下。

Even the best stocks go through these phases and I am sure TSLA bulls will not be too concerned. But still, in the short term, this is there are too many red flags.

即使是最好的股票也会经历这些阶段,我相信看涨特斯拉的人不会太担心。但在短期内,这仍然是危险信号太多了。

On the date of publication, Faizan Farooque did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

发稿日期:法赞·法鲁克没有(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文表达的观点是作者的观点,以InvestorPlace.com为准出版指南.

Faizan Farooque is a contributing author for InvestorPlace.com and numerous other financial sites. Faizan has several years of experience analyzing the stock market and was a former data journalist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. His passion is to help the average investor make more informed decisions regarding their portfolio. Faizan does not directly own the securities mentioned above.

法伊赞·法鲁克是《InvestorPlace.com和许多其他金融网站。法伊赞拥有多年的股市分析经验,曾在标准普尔全球市场情报公司担任数据记者。他的热情是帮助普通投资者就他们的投资组合做出更明智的决定。法伊赞并不直接拥有上述证券。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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