Intel Stock Will Be Back, but It Is Going to Take a While
Intel Stock Will Be Back, but It Is Going to Take a While
$Intel Corp(INTC.US)$ stock will come good. Just not right away.
$英特尔公司(INTC.US)$库存会好起来的。只是不是马上。
The former chip industry leader is now cheap as chips. This after reporting net income of $5.1 billion, $1.24 per share on revenue of $19.6 billion for the June quarter.
这家昔日的芯片行业领头羊现在的身价就像芯片一样便宜。此前，该公司公布第二季度净收益为51亿美元，每股收益1.24美元，营收为196亿美元。
The numbers beat estimates, but investors turned thumbs-down anyway, sending INTC stock down 2.5% overnight.
这些数字超出了预期，但投资者仍然对此表示反对，导致英特尔股价一夜之间下跌2.5%。
INTC stock was due to open July 23 at about $54.50, a market cap of $225 billion. The dividend, not threatened by the earnings, now yields nearly 2.5% and the price to earnings ratio is 12.5. The stock sells for barely three times last year’s sales.
INTC股票原定于7月23日以约54.50美元的价格开盘，市值为2,250亿美元。在不受收益威胁的情况下，股息目前的收益率接近2.5%，市盈率为12.5倍。该股售价仅为去年销售额的三倍。
By contrast $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA.US)$, which designs chips but doesn’t own a foundry, is at $196/share after a 4:1 stock split. That’s a market cap of $488 billion, a PE of 92, and the dividend yields .08%. The price to sales ratio is nearly 25.
相比之下，$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA.US)$该公司设计芯片，但不拥有一家代工厂，在4：1的股票拆分后，该公司的股价为每股196美元。这是4880亿美元的市值，92倍的市盈率，股息收益率为0.08%。价格与销售额之比接近25倍。
What Went Wrong With INTC Stock
INTC股票出了什么问题
Intel didn’t get into trouble fast, and it’s not getting out of it fast either.
英特尔没有很快陷入困境，也没有很快摆脱困境。
CEO Pat Geisinger didn’t rejoin the company until February, after nearly a decade running $VMware Inc(VMW.US)$. Before that he had been with Intel for 30 years.
首席执行官帕特·盖辛格(Pat Geisinger)在连续工作近十年后，直到2月份才重新加入公司$VMware Inc.(VMW.US)$。在此之前，他已经在英特尔工作了30年。
The man he was pushed out for, Brian Krzanich, turned out to be one of the worst CEOs of the last decade. That’s a rogues gallery that includes Virginia Rometty of $International Business Machines Corp(IBM.US)$, Jeff Immelt of $General Electric Co(GE.US)$ and Randall Stephenson of $AT&T Inc(T.US)$.
他被赶下台的人布莱恩·克尔扎尼奇(Brian Krzanich)被证明是过去十年中最糟糕的首席执行官之一。这是一个流氓画廊，其中包括弗吉尼亚·罗曼提$国际商业机器公司(IBM.US)$，杰夫·伊梅尔特$通用电气公司(General Electric Co)$和兰德尔·斯蒂芬森(Randall Stephenson)$AT&T Inc.(T.US)$.
Krzanich ran off competing voices and failed to compete in manufacturing, losing the lead to $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd(TSM.US)$. He was finally pushed out after a sex scandal.
Krzanich跑出了竞争对手的声音，在制造业竞争中失败，失去了领先地位$台积电制造有限公司(TSM.US)$。在爆出性丑闻后，他终于被赶下台了。
Intel’s problems can be summed up in one word: ultraviolet. Taiwan Semiconductor has mastered Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography. It has a road map to make chips with circuit lines 2 nm apart later this decade. That’s thinner than the distance between strands of DNA. Intel is stuck at 10 nm.
英特尔的问题可以用一个词来概括：紫外线。台积电已经掌握了极紫外光刻技术。该公司制定了在本十年晚些时候制造电路线间距为2 nm的芯片的路线图。这比DNA链之间的距离还要细。英特尔在10纳米处停滞不前。
Rather than cede the field to the Taiwanese, whose foundries supply Nvidia, $Advanced Micro Devices Inc(AMD.US)$ and $Apple Inc(AAPL.US)$, among others, Geisinger is doubling down. He’s putting $20 billion into two new Arizona chip plants. He’s also negotiating the purchase of Global Foundries, the Arab-backed chip foundry, at a price of about $30 billion.
与其把油田让给台湾人，他们的铸造厂为英伟达供货，$Advanced Micro Devices Inc(AMD.US)$和$苹果公司(AAPL.US)$其中，盖辛格正在加倍下注。他将向亚利桑那州的两家新芯片厂投资200亿美元。他还在谈判以约300亿美元的价格收购阿拉伯支持的芯片代工公司Global Foundries。
It’s affordable, but it’s not cheap. Intel had $14.3 billion of operating cash flow in the first half of the year. The company also sent $5.2 billion during the first half to shareholders, in the form of dividends and stock buybacks. The cash flow, and payouts, were both lower than in 2020.
价格实惠，但不便宜。英特尔上半年的运营现金流为143亿美元。今年上半年，该公司还以股息和股票回购的形式向股东支付了52亿美元。现金流和支出都低于2020年。
The current chip shortage sees Nvidia holding the pricing power Intel once had. It is continuing to gain share in data centers, even though clouds were designed to use cheaper chips.
目前的芯片短缺使NVIDIA拥有英特尔曾经拥有的定价权。尽管云被设计为使用更便宜的芯片，但它在数据中心的份额仍在继续增加。
What bears fear is that Intel could lose even its current pricing power if the chip shortage ends quickly. $Texas Instruments Inc(TXN.US)$, another chip maker, has said revenues should flatten later this year. Intel’s forecast is that shortages continue, into 2023.
令人担忧的是，如果芯片短缺迅速结束，英特尔甚至可能失去目前的定价权。$德州仪器公司(TXN.US)$另一家芯片制造商高通()曾表示，今年晚些时候营收应该会持平。英特尔的预测是短缺将持续到2023年。
The Bottom Line
底线
I was a huge critic of Krzanich. I wasn’t a fan of his successor, financial man Robert Swan. I didn’t start recommending Intel again until Geisinger was being recruited.
我当时是个克尔扎尼奇的巨大批评者. I 我不是你的粉丝他的继任者，金融家罗伯特·斯旺。我没有再次推荐英特尔直到盖辛格被招募.
Shares rose sharply after Geisinger was hired, to as high as $68 in April, but the honeymoon is over. INTC stock trades today at around $53.
盖辛格被聘用后，股价大幅上涨，4月份曾高达68美元，但蜜月期已经结束。INTC股票今天的交易价格约为53美元。
You don’t have to rush back into Intel, but it’s a good hedge against Nvidia gains. These have been spectacular. It’s up 343% in just the last two years.
你不必急于买入英特尔，但这是对英伟达收益的一种很好的对冲。这些都是令人叹为观止的。仅在过去两年里就上涨了343%。
There are no losers because everything is a computer now. I call it the Machine Internet and it’s one of the new decade’s big trends. You don’t need to rush back into Intel but three years from now the current price will look dirt cheap.
没有输家，因为现在一切都是电脑。我称之为机器互联网，它是新十年的大趋势之一。你不需要急于回到英特尔，但从现在开始三年后，当前的价格看起来会非常便宜。
On the date of publication, Dana Blankenhorn held long positions in INTC, NVDA, TSM and AAPL. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
在发表之日，Dana Blankenhorn在INTC、NVDA、TSM和AAPL持有多头头寸。本文表达的观点是作者的观点，以InvestorPlace.com为准出版指南.
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岗位英特尔股票将会回升，但还需要一段时间第一次出现在InvestorPlace.