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Earnings Preview: Alphabet profitability still hidden in the cloud as it surges past FAANG toward Q2 earnings

Earnings Preview: Alphabet profitability still hidden in the cloud as it surges past FAANG toward Q2 earnings

收益预览:字母表盈利能力仍隐藏在云中,因为它超过了FAANG,迈向第二季度收益
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2021/07/26 21:04  · 财报

$Alphabet Inc-CL A(GOOGL.US)$ arguably hit it out of the park last quarter when it reported earnings that left analysts' estimates in the dust.

$Alphabet Inc-CL A(GOOGL.US)$可以说,上个季度,该公司公布的收益超出了分析师的预期,令人惊叹不已。

Overall revenue came in strong at $55.3 billion, up 34% year over year, with each business segment topping expectations by a wide margin except for one that matched consensus. Jumping off its earnings performance, GOOGL shares currently stand 11% higher than they were entering last quarter's reporting period.

整体营收强劲,达到553亿美元,同比增长34%,除一个业务部门与共识相符外,其他每个业务部门都远远超出预期。从盈利表现来看,谷歌目前的股价比进入上个季度的报告期高出11%。

Let's take a step back for a moment. For a company whose $1 trillion market cap has only a handful of peers in the world, you have to wonder how much more growth is possible, especially considering that GOOGL seems to be in every global market, driving some part of every sector and every industry.

让我们退后一步。对于一家市值1万亿美元的公司来说,全球同行屈指可数,你不得不想知道还能有多少增长,特别是考虑到谷歌似乎进入了每个全球市场,推动着每个行业和每个行业的某些部分。

Still, its appetite for growth and innovation is what seems to rejuvenate the 23-year old company. And its forward outlook in its earnings conference call, courtesy of CEO Sundar Pichai, could reflect the scope of the company's present operations and future ambitions—literally and "virtually," all over the map.

尽管如此,它对增长和创新的胃口似乎让这家拥有23年历史的公司重新焕发了活力。在首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊的帮助下,该公司在财报电话会议上的展望可能会反映出公司目前的业务范围和未来的雄心--字面上的,甚至是整个地图上的“虚拟的”。

Core Search Still Globally Uncontested

核心搜索在全球范围内仍无人竞争

Almost everyone in the world uses the term "Google″ as a verb synonymous with "online search." This speaks to GOOGL's dominance in the minds of online users—around 92% of all global search queries go through the Google search engine. 

世界上几乎每个人都把“谷歌”当作“在线搜索”的同义词。这说明了谷歌在在线用户心目中的主导地位--大约92%的全球搜索请求都是通过谷歌搜索引擎完成的。

Not surprisingly, the company has owned over 30% of the global online ad market share since at least 2016, according to Statista, and in the US, that figure is expected to rise to 56.8% this year.

不出所料,根据Statista的数据,至少自2016年以来,该公司已经占据了全球在线广告市场30%以上的份额,在美国,这一数字预计今年将上升到56.8%。

These are important stats, not only because ad revenue represents 82% of GOOGL's total revenue—in other words, it pays the bills—but because it's also what makes the company's forays into other avenues of growth possible.

这些都是重要的数据,不仅因为广告收入占谷歌总收入的82%--换句话说,是它买单--还因为它也使该公司进军其他增长渠道成为可能。

As is often the case going into GOOGL earnings, ad revenue growth will likely be on investors' minds. As earnings approach, the Street appears optimistic about GOOGL's Q2 ad results. This could be in part due to a continued recovery in internet advertising that may be lifting more than one boat in the sector, Barron's reported.

就像谷歌盈利经常出现的情况一样,广告收入的增长可能会成为投资者关注的问题。随着盈利的临近,华尔街似乎对谷歌第二季度的广告业绩持乐观态度。据Barron‘s报道,这在一定程度上可能是因为互联网广告的持续复苏,这可能提振了该行业的不止一艘船。

google earnings q2

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FIGURE 1: TAKING A BITE OUT OF THE FAANG. Alphabet's shares are running ahead of the rest of the FAANGs year to date. 

图1: 咬了一口FAANG。今年到目前为止,Alphabet的股价一直领先于FAANG的其他股票。

Quiet Dominance In The World Of Mobile Communications

在移动通信领域悄无声息地占据主导地位

When you talk about $Apple Inc(AAPL.US)$, it's almost impossible not to talk about the iPhone. After all, doesn't everyone virtually live by (or "in") their mobile phones? We can't say the same for Alphabet, whose Android phones are hardly ever discussed (even in the company's recent earnings calls).

当你谈到$苹果公司(AAPL.US)$,几乎不可能不谈论iPhone。毕竟,不是每个人实际上都靠(或“在”手机里)生活吗?对于Alphabet,我们就不能这样说了,它的Android手机几乎从未被讨论过(甚至在该公司最近的财报电话会议上也是如此)。

But here's something to think about: While nearly 60% of all mobile customers in the U.S. prefer iPhones over Android, the latter dominates the global mobile market with a 72% market share, according to a report by Statcounter. What might that mean with regard to its OS-related Chrome or Chromebook adoption? Seamless OS access across related devices? 

但这里需要考虑的是:根据StatCounter的一份报告,尽管近60%的美国移动用户更喜欢iPhone而不是Android,但Android以72%的市场份额主导着全球移动市场。对于其操作系统相关的Chrome或Chromebook的采用而言,这可能意味着什么?跨相关设备无缝访问操作系统?

Cloud Still Lagging But Gaining Momentum

云仍然落后,但势头正在增强

GOOGL's cloud services still rank third behind $Amazon.Com Inc(AMZN.US)$ and $Microsoft Corp(MSFT.US)$. But its command of over 7% global market share, reported by Canalys (April 2021), shouldn’t be underestimated, especially considering that the "cloud" is still a budding market.

谷歌的云服务仍排在第三位$Amazon.com Inc.(AMZN.US)$$微软公司(MSFT.US)$。但据Canalys(2021年4月)报道,它在全球市场的占有率超过7%,这一数字不应被低估,特别是考虑到“云”仍是一个萌芽市场。

Last quarter's $4 billion in cloud revenue revealed the strength and speed of GOOGL's charge, exhibiting a solid 46% year-over-year growth. On the defensive side, the segment also proved capable of reducing its operating losses from $1.73 billion a year ago to only $1 billion last quarter.

上个季度40亿美元的云收入显示了谷歌收费的实力和速度,与去年同期相比稳步增长了46%。在防御方面,事实证明,该部门也有能力将运营亏损从一年前的17.3亿美元减少到上个季度的10亿美元。

Investors are likely to pay close attention to the Google Cloud revenue when the company reports Q2 earnings on July 27, after the close. Given the level of emphasis CEO Pichai places on the segment in nearly every earnings conference call, it's hard not to suspect that GOOGL's cloud services could help shape the company's future profitability and market dominance.

投资者可能会密切关注谷歌云(Google Cloud)的收入,该公司将于7月27日(收盘后)公布第二季度收益。考虑到首席执行官皮查伊在几乎每一次财报电话会议上对这一领域的重视程度,很难不怀疑谷歌的云服务可能有助于塑造公司未来的盈利能力和市场主导地位。

Alphabet's Acquisitions: A Critical Role In Growth?

Alphabet的收购:在增长中扮演关键角色?

Last quarter, we saw GOOGL get a $4.75 billion boost in profit due to its startup acquisitions (though it didn't specify which companies contributed to the gains). Still, expansion by way of acquisitions appears to be an active part of GOOGL's growth mix, along with fellow peers MSFT and AMZN.

上个季度,我们看到GOOGL通过收购初创公司获得了47.5亿美元的利润增长(尽管它没有具体说明是哪些公司贡献了这一收益)。不过,收购扩张似乎是GOOGL增长组合中的一个活跃部分,其他同行微软(MSFT)和AMZN也是如此。

The company bought up over 160 companies in the last 10 years. But with a formidable free cash flow trailing $50.7 billion over a 12-month period, according to CFO Ruth Porat's presentation in last quarter's earnings call, the company may have a sizable amount of cash to expand its portfolio along innovative lines.

在过去的10年里,该公司收购了160多家公司。但根据首席财务官露丝·波拉特在上个季度财报电话会议上的陈述,在过去12个月里,该公司的自由现金流高达507亿美元,因此该公司可能有相当大的现金流来沿着创新路线扩大其投资组合。

Alphabet Leads Communications, Tech, And FAANG Year To Date

Alphabet今年到目前为止领先于通信、科技和FAANG

According to FactSet, Communication Services and Information Technology are among the sectors holding the highest analyst ratings. GOOGL—a "tech" stock under the "communications" sector category—has surpassed both sectors and its FAANG peers in terms of market performance.

根据FactSet的数据,通信服务和信息技术是分析师评级最高的行业之一。谷歌(GOOGL)--属于“通信”板块的“科技”类股票--在市场表现方面已超过这两个板块以及FAANG的同行。

Year to date, GOOGL is up 46%, leaving behind Communications (20.69%), Tech (16.45%), and its peer FAANG components. Its closest peer, lagging by a wide margin, is MSFT (26.68%). Looking far ahead, CFRA analysts project a three-year compound annual growth rate of 24% driven by global ad spend, and, on a segment level, driven by search, YouTube, and cloud.

今年到目前为止,GOOGL上涨了46%,落后于Communications(20.69%)、Tech(16.45%)和同行FAANG组件。它最接近的同行是微软(26.68%),远远落后于微软。展望未来,CFRA分析师预计,在全球广告支出的推动下,未来三年的复合年增长率将达到24%,而在细分市场层面,则是搜索、YouTube和云的推动。

As for the current quarter, the company withheld providing revenue and earnings guidance.

至于本季度,该公司拒绝提供收入和收益指引。

Alphabet Earnings And Options Activity

字母表收益和期权活动

GOOGL is expected to report adjusted EPS of $19.21, up from $10.13 in the prior-year quarter, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates. Revenue is projected at $56.02 billion, up 46.3% from a year ago.

谷歌预计将报告调整后每股收益为19.21美元据第三方共识分析师估计,这一数字高于去年同期的10.13美元。收入预计为560.2亿美元,比一年前增长了46.3%。

Options traders have priced in an expected share price move of 3.2% in either direction around the earnings release. The implied volatility sits at the 25th percentile as of Thursday morning.

期权交易员预计,在财报发布前后,股价将出现3.2%的预期波动。截至周四上午,隐含波动率位于第25个百分位数。

Looking at the July 30 options expiration, call activity is spread out with higher activity at the 2600 strike while puts have been active at the 2490 and 2500 strikes. 

看看7月30日的期权到期情况,看涨期权活动在2600点展开,而看跌期权在2490点和2500点一直活跃。

Note: Call options represent the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying security at a predetermined price over a set period of time. Put options represent the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying security at a predetermined price over a set period of time.

注:看涨期权代表在一段时间内以预定价格购买标的证券的权利,而不是义务。看跌期权代表的是在一段时间内以预定价格出售标的证券的权利,而不是义务。

TD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC. Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

TD ameritrade®评论仅用于教育目的。成员SIPC。期权涉及风险,并不适合所有投资者。请阅读标准化期权的特点和风险。

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

格尔德·阿尔特曼摄于皮克斯巴伊

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