What is the Santa Claus rally?
What is the Santa Claus rally?
Key takeaways
主要外卖
The Santa Claus rally describes a rise in the stock market over the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January
The seven-day combo yielded positive returns for nearly 78% of the time from 1950 to 2019
What causes this rally exactly is still unknown — possible explanations include optimism fueled by the holiday spirit and pessimistic investors taking vacations during this time
圣诞老人涨势描述了股市在12月的最后5个交易日和1月的头两个交易日的上涨。
从1950年到2019年,为期7天的组合有近78%的时间实现了正回报
究竟是什么原因导致了这波涨势仍不得而知??可能的解释包括节日气氛引发的乐观情绪和悲观的投资者在这段时间度假。
Understanding the Santa Claus rally
理解圣诞老人集会
The Santa Claus rally was first recorded by Yale Hirsch in his Stock Trader's Almanac in 1972.
1972年,耶鲁·赫希(Yale Hirsch)在他的《股票交易者年鉴》(Stock Trader‘s Almanac)中首次记录了圣诞老人的涨势。
A Santa Claus rally is a calendar effect that involves a rise in stock prices during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January.
圣诞老人反弹是一种日历效应,涉及12月份最后5个交易日和次年1月份前2个交易日的股价上涨。
According to LPL Research, this seven-day trading period is the second-best stretch for equities at any point in the year, with an average 1.33% gain from 1950 to 2019. Moreover, the seven-day combo yielded positive returns for nearly 78% of the time.
根据LPL Research的数据,这七天的交易期是一年中任何时候股市表现第二好的时期,1950年至2019年的平均涨幅为1.33%。此外,七天的组合有近78%的时间实现了正回报。
(Source: LPL Research)
(来源:LPL Research)
Even though historical data give us a clue, it's important to remember that past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
尽管历史数据给了我们线索,但重要的是要记住,过去的表现并不能保证未来的回报。
What causes a Santa Claus rally?
是什么导致了圣诞老人集会?
There is no generally accepted explanation for the phenomenon.
对于这一现象,目前还没有普遍接受的解释。
The rally is sometimes attributed to the following:
这一涨势有时被归因于以下几点:
Investors invest with holiday bonuses;
Increased investor purchases in anticipation of the January effect;
Optimism fueled by the holiday spirit;
The vocation-led lighter volume makes it easier to move the market higher;
A slowdown in tax-loss harvesting that depresses prices at the beginning of December;
Some very large institutional investors, which are more sophisticated and pessimistic, tend to go on vacation at this time.
投资者用假期奖金进行投资;
投资者因预期1月效应而增加买入;
节日精神激发的乐观情绪;
行业主导的清淡成交量使市场更容易走高;
12月初,减税收成放缓,压低了价格;
一些非常大的机构投资者更老练、更悲观,往往在这个时候休假。
For more investment knowledge and trends, welcome to Courses in the Community
欲了解更多投资知识和趋势,欢迎访问课程在社区中