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S&P 500 And NASDAQ 100 Volatility Snapshot

S&P 500 And NASDAQ 100 Volatility Snapshot

标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100指数波动率
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2022/03/29 12:01

With the amount of uncertainty in the financial markets, market sentiment plays a very crucial role in determining where the big money is positioned and what type of market gyrations to expect in the near term. 

在金融市场存在大量不确定性的情况下,市场情绪在决定大笔资金的定位以及短期内预期会出现什么类型的市场波动方面起着非常关键的作用。

The VIX represents a real-time index of the market's expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 index. Likewise, the VXN represents an index of the market's expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the NASDAQ 100. Because they are both derived from the prices of SPX and NASDAQ index options with near-term expiration dates, they generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of uncertainty among market participants. The way to gauge a daily range is by the following:

VIX代表了市场对标准普尔500指数短期价格变动相对强度的预期的实时指数。同样,VXN代表了市场对纳斯达克100指数短期价格变动相对强度的预期的指数。由于它们都来自具有短期到期日的SPX和纳斯达克指数期权的价格,因此它们对波动率进行了30天的远期预测。波动性通常被视为衡量市场情绪的一种方式,尤其是市场参与者的不确定程度。衡量每日区间的方法如下:

Expected Daily Move in Stock/Index: IV/sqrt(256 trading days) or 16 = Expected % Daily Range.

股票/指数的预期每日变动:iV/sqRT(256 个交易日)或 16 = 预期的每日区间百分比。

E.g.  SPX 30d IV = 23.85; 

例如 SPX 30d IV = 23.85;

        23.85/16 = 1.49% expected daily range for the next 30d. 

23.85/16 = 未来30天的预期每日区间为1.49%。

VIX (S&P 500)

VIX(标准普尔 500)

Taking a look at the VIX candle chart, the price action has made an inverted hammer pattern right off the 200p SMA. Historically, the past three times it has done so it tends to bounce right off of that to make new highs. 

看看VIX蜡烛图,价格走势已经在200便士均线上形成了反转的锤子形态。从历史上看,在过去的三次中,它往往会立即反弹并创下新高。

The VIX is continuing to make higher lows while continuing to display a wide volatility range. 

VIX继续创出更高的低点,同时继续显示出广泛的波动范围。

Point and Figure charts which display objective price action without noise, and just measure price and volatility without regards to time have been very accurate in their price targets. Most recently price hit the upside target of 36 and the downside target of 25. We've continued to remain in a high range between 15-35 over the past year.

点图和数字图表在没有噪音的情况下显示客观的价格走势,并且不考虑时间而仅衡量价格和波动率,这些图表的目标价格非常准确。最近,价格触及了上行目标36和下行目标25。在过去的一年中,我们继续保持在15-35之间的高位区间。

VXN (NASDAQ 100)

VXN(纳斯达克 100)

The VXN which tracks the volatility of the NASDAQ 100 also like its counterpart has seen a high range of volatility. Currently its basing out in between the 20p and 200p SMAs which is considered a trap zone.s

追踪纳斯达克100指数波动率的VXN也与其同类指数一样,波动率范围很大。目前,它的基地介于 20p 和 200p 的 SMA 之间,被视为陷阱区域。

Price and Volatility have started to converge while the VXN continues to make higher lows. 

价格和波动率已开始趋于一致,而VXN继续创出更高的低点。

On the Point and Figure charts the price action has currently made a cup with a wide range from 18-40 within the year. The Price action is currently hovering over the right side of the cup for which every time it has done that, volatility in the NASDAQ 100 has risen. 

在Point and Figure图表上,目前价格走势使年内价格走势在18-40之间。目前,价格走势徘徊在杯子的右侧,每当它这样做时,纳斯达克100指数的波动率都会上升。

Overall, these are very volatile times with plenty of catalysts that can cause extreme uncertainty at any time. Having a key understanding how the range of moves that can be made in the overall indices and individual names can give very good guidance to traders and investors in which strategies to deploy. 

总的来说,这是一个非常不稳定的时期,有很多催化剂随时可能造成极大的不确定性。深入了解整体指数和个人名称中可以采取的变动范围可以为交易者和投资者提供很好的指导,以此来指导交易者和投资者采取哪些策略。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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