By Anna Hirtenstein and Gunjan Banerji
Uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy and the war in Ukraine pushed the S&P 500 toward weekly losses and stoked a selloff in the government bond market.
The broad stock-market gauge lost 11.93 points, or 0.3%, to 4488.28 Friday. The tech-heavy $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$ declined 186.30 points, or 1.3%, to 13711.00. The blue-chip $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$ reversed early losses to close up 137.55 points, or 0.4%, to 34721.12.
All three major indexes ended the week with losses. The S&P 500 snapped a three-week winning streak that had sent it toward its best performance since November 2020, losing 1.3%. The Dow and Nasdaq lost 0.3% and 3.9%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped to the highest level since March 2019 as bond prices tumbled.
Throughout the week, investors remained preoccupied with commentary from Federal Reserve officials as well as the minutes from the central bank's March policy meeting, Those minutes showed that policy makers had considered raising interest rates and unwinding its balance sheet faster, driving stocks lower.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Thursday that the central bank is behind on its mission to tame inflation and will likely have to act fairly forcefully to get price pressures under control.
The swings in assets across the market highlight how murky the path of the economy remains for many investors, who are trying to pick the winners and losers of the rising interest-rate regime and grappling with surging commodity prices worldwide.
"The Fed has been the number-one story and that continues," said James Athey, an investment manager at Abrdn. "The effect of the sort of tightening that has been discussed, that has a history of being very destabilizing."
A rapid jump in bond yields has led some investors and analysts to wonder whether the rise in yields will chip away at stock returns, and at what point investors will opt to ditch stocks in favor of bonds. Some investors have grown worried that the central bank's interest rate hikes will drive a recession just two years after the U.S. exited the last downturn.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose for a sixth consecutive day to 2.713%. Shorter-dated bond yields also advanced, with the two-year yield rising to 2.518% and notching a fifth consecutive week of gains. The two-year yield recorded its biggest five-week gain since May 1987.
Although yield levels are still fairly low, if they rise fast enough, can equities withstand such a monetary shock?"
-wrote Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, in a note to clients on Thursday.
Mr. Paulsen said that in the last three months, yields have risen faster than nearly 97% of all three-month periods since 1950. Still, he said, stocks have typically done well when the 10-year Treasury yield has been below 3% and until it rises to around 4%.
Some tech-heavyweights that had rebounded lately pulled back in recent sessions. $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ shares lost 5.6% this week, while Google-parent $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US)$ shed 4.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq badly underperformed its peers, continuing a trend from earlier in the year.
Investors have also had to analyze mixed signals stemming from different parts of the market. The bond market, for example, was recently flashing a signal that a recession may be on the horizon. And transportation stocks, which are often viewed as an indicator of the health of the economy, have been tumbling.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average, which tracks 20 large U.S. companies ranging from delivery giant $United Parcel Service(UPS.US)$ to railroad operator $Union Pacific(UNP.US)$, has fallen 11% to start the month, while the Dow industrials broadly are down about 0.1%. Companies that operate things like trains and planes tend to see higher demand when consumers are ramping up spending on travel and other goods and the economic outlook is brighter.
The war in Ukraine has also continued to weigh on markets. Allegations of war crimes by Russian troops against civilians prompted a new round of sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union this week. The United Nations General Assembly on Thursday voted to suspend Russia from its Human Rights Council.
Despite the recent volatility and signals from the bond market, major indexes have rapidly ascended from their lows in March. The S&P 500 has gained 7.6% since its March low in a broad-based rally. Some investors have said that stocks remain attractive even though Treasury yields have jumped.
"If you want to grow your buying power over the next 10 years, I can't think of a better place to do it than equities," said Dev Kantesaria, founder of Valley Forge Capital. "We have been buying more of the companies that are in our portfolio. We are close to 0% cash."
In commodities, prices for palladium and platinum jumped after the body that oversees London's market for the metals said it would bar metal produced by two major refining companies owned by the Russian government. Meanwhile, the United Nations on Friday said global food prices hit a record high in March.
Oil prices edged lower, with global benchmark Brent crude dropping for the second consecutive week to trade at $102.78 after losing 1.5%. Traders are assessing the impact of sanctions and self-sanctioning measures by energy companies on Russian oil exports and the release of strategic reserves by member nations of the International Energy Agency.
Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 closed Friday up 1.3%, finishing the week ahead 0.6%. The FTSE 100 ended the week up 1.7%, while Germany's DAX index fell 1.1%.
In Asia, most major benchmarks closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%. Japan's Nikkei 225 ticked up 0.4%.
Write to Anna Hirtenstein at anna.hirtenstein@wsj.com and Gunjan Banerji at gunjan.banerji@wsj.com
美联储政策和乌克兰战争的不确定性将标准普尔500指数推向每周的跌幅,并引发了政府债券市场的抛售。
上周五,上证综指下跌11.93点,至4488.28点,跌幅0.3%。以科技为主的$纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC.US)$该指数下跌186.30点,至13711.00点,跌幅1.3%。蓝筹股$道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI.US)$扳回早盘跌幅,收盘上涨137.55点,至34721.12点,涨幅0.4%。
三大股指本周均以下跌收盘。标准普尔500指数结束了连续三周的上涨势头,下跌1.3%,创下2020年11月以来的最佳表现。道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下跌0.3%和3.9%。
同时,随着债券价格暴跌,指标10年期美国国债收益率跃升至2019年3月以来的最高水平。
在整个一周,投资者仍然全神贯注于美联储官员的评论以及美联储3月份政策会议的纪要,这些纪要显示,政策制定者考虑过更快地加息和清理资产负债表,推动股市走低。
圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德周四说,美联储没有完成抑制通胀的使命,很可能不得不采取相当有力的行动来控制物价压力。
整个市场的资产波动突显出,对于许多投资者来说,经济的道路仍然是多么模糊,他们正试图挑选利率上升机制的赢家和输家,并努力应对全球大宗商品价格的飙升。
阿布顿的投资经理詹姆斯·阿西(James Athee)表示:“美联储一直是头号人物,而且还在继续。”“已经讨论过的那种紧缩政策的影响,历来都是非常不稳定的。”
债券收益率的快速飙升让一些投资者和分析人士想知道,收益率的上升是否会削弱股票的回报,以及投资者会在什么时候选择抛售股票,转而选择债券。一些投资者越来越担心,在美国走出上一轮经济低迷仅两年后,央行的加息将导致经济衰退。
基准10年期美国国债收益率连续第六个交易日上涨,至2.713%。较短期债券收益率也走高,两年期国债收益率升至2.518%,连续第五周上涨。两年期美债收益率录得1987年5月以来最大五周涨幅。
虽然收益率水平仍然相当低,但如果它们上升得足够快,股市能经受住这样的货币冲击吗?
-Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森周四在给客户的一份报告中写道。
鲍尔森说,在过去三个月里,收益率的上升速度超过了1950年以来所有三个月期间的近97%。不过,他说,当10年期美国国债收益率一直低于3%,直到收益率升至4%左右时,股市通常表现良好。
最近反弹的一些科技股在最近几个交易日有所回落。$亚马逊(AMZN.US)$股价本周下跌5.6%,而谷歌母公司$Alphabet-A(谷歌)$下跌4.9%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克的表现严重逊于同行,延续了今年早些时候的趋势。
投资者还不得不分析来自市场不同部分的混合信号。例如,债券市场最近发出了衰退可能即将到来的信号。通常被视为经济健康状况指标的交通类股也在暴跌。
道琼斯运输平均指数跟踪20家美国大型公司,其中包括快递巨头$联合包裹服务(UPS.US)$给铁路运营商$联合太平洋(UNP.US)$本月初下跌了11%,而道琼斯工业平均指数整体下跌了约0.1%。当消费者在旅行和其他商品上增加支出,经济前景更加光明时,运营火车和飞机等业务的公司往往会看到更高的需求。
乌克兰战争也继续令市场承压。本周,俄罗斯军队对平民犯下战争罪的指控引发了美国和欧盟的新一轮制裁。周四,联合国大会投票决定暂停俄罗斯的人权理事会成员资格。
尽管最近出现了波动,债券市场也发出了信号,但主要股指已从3月份的低点迅速回升。标准普尔500指数自3月份的低点以来上涨了7.6%,涨幅广泛。一些投资者表示,尽管美国国债收益率大幅上升,但股市仍然具有吸引力。
“如果你想在未来10年增强购买力,我想不出比股票更好的地方了,”Valley Forge Capital创始人Dev Kantesaria说。“我们一直在买入更多我们投资组合中的公司。我们的现金接近0%。”
在大宗商品方面,钯和铂的价格大幅上涨,此前伦敦金属市场监管机构表示,将禁止俄罗斯政府拥有的两家大型炼油公司生产金属。与此同时,联合国周五表示,全球食品价格在3月份创下历史新高。
油价小幅走低,全球基准布伦特原油价格连续第二周下跌,在下跌1.5%后跌至每桶102.78美元。交易员们正在评估能源公司的制裁和自我制裁措施对俄罗斯石油出口的影响,以及国际能源署成员国释放战略储备的影响。
在海外,泛欧斯托克欧洲600指数周五收盘上涨1.3%,本周上涨0.6%。富时100指数本周上涨1.7%,而德国DAX指数下跌1.1%。
在亚洲,大多数主要基准指数收盘上涨。上证综合指数上涨0.5%,香港恒生指数上涨0.3%。日本日经225指数上涨0.4%。
致信anna.hirstein@wsj.com安娜·希尔滕斯坦和Gunjan Banerji@wsj.com