华利安股票讨论

自1928年以来， $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$
“九月效应”似乎再次出现，截至周一收盘，标普500指数本月至今下跌3.14%，现在已经是九月的第二个星期。
上周，我们发表了“华尔街再次面临九月诅咒。有什么新动态和如何应对？," outlini...

尽管有平均增长预期，投资者仍为股票支付溢价，使其市盈率保持较高水平。与预期不同，与市场相匹配的盈利前景不会对高市盈率产生影响，从而给股东的投资和潜在投资者可能支付不必要的溢价带来风险。

分析师对华利安的每股收益预期下调表示担忧，暗示着业务风险。尽管普遍的目标股价保持稳定，预测的每股收益下滑可能表达了负面情绪。

$华利安 (HLI.US)$主要做投行业务，营收在2021和2022年暴增，2023年下滑20.3%，5年平均增速为13.4%，营业利润和营收类似，在2021和2022年暴增，2023年在毛利下滑的同时费用大幅增加，因此大幅下滑44.2%，5年平均增速为9.8%，净利润则在2023年下滑42%，5年平均增速为8.1%，没看到利息费用。
2024Q1营收萎缩0.7%，营业利润萎缩5.4%，净利润萎缩13.3%。
目前市盈率26.8，市盈率TTM微增到27.7，暂时缺乏吸引力。

Upgrades
• $博格华纳 (BWA.US)$ ：德意志银行升级为买入，从持有-目标价$48（从$43）
• $Expensify (EXFY.US)$ ：美银证券升级为买入，从中立-目标价$25（从$20）
• $Grab Holdings (GRAB.US)$ ：摩根大通从中立升级为增持-目标价3美元
• $华利安 (HLI.US)$ ：摩根史坦利从弱势升级为等权重-目标价82美元（从95美元）
• $摩根大通 (JPM.US)$ ：贝融升级为持有，从卖出-目标价...

$华利安 (HLI.US)$ Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on September 24, 2021 with a closing price of 95.39.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 94.85 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.084% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.597% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.123% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 12 trading bars; half occur within 31 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).