During 2000-2003 the US economy was impacted by multiple negative forces including a recession, a 49% decline in the S&P500, and the shock of 9/11, but US house prices grew at a 9% annual rate during this period. Thus, macro-economic distress needn't always lead to falling home prices. However, we think the present situation differs from that of 2000-2003 in two respects: (1) during 2000-2003 unemployment rates peaked at 6% while our Economics team sees unemployment reaching 9% in the coming quarters (2) 30-year mortgage rates fell by 300bp during 2000-2003 but currently have less room to compress. On net, we think the strong positive and strong negative forces affecting the US housing market will lead to a 2% decline in national a
Independence Realty Trust, Inc.股票讨论
新增数据:23Q3,23Q4,营收持续小幅增长,营业利润持续小幅萎缩,净利润Q4转为亏损。
2023年营收增长5.2%,营业利润增长58.8%,净利润转为亏损,每股净资产减少4.9%。
2019至今每股净资产从6.76增长到15.29,4年平均增速为22.6%,股息率4%,市净率1,综合来看估值仍有折扣,暂不做调整。
5年来营收在前4年持续增长,平均增速为11.6%,受2021Q4的并购影响,2022年营收大幅增长1.5倍,营业利润前4年受营业费用不断攀升影响变化不大,2022年猛增79.3%,净利润在2022年暴增1.65倍。
2023上半年营收增长6.6%,营业利润受折旧费用大幅下降影响增长了4.4倍(这个很奇怪,照理说资产越多折旧应该越大才对),净利润则由于缺乏资产出售收益的加持大幅萎缩71.4%。
总资产65亿中有62亿是房地产,总负债28亿。
目前市盈率27,市盈率TTM已经提高到了44.7,市净率0.9,股息率4%,可以谨慎选择(⭐️)
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(1) during 2000-2003 unemployment rates peaked at 6% while our Economics team sees unemployment reaching 9% in the coming quarters
(2) 30-year mortgage rates fell by 300bp during 2000-2003 but currently have less room to compress.
On net, we think the strong positive and strong negative forces affecting the US housing market will lead to a 2% decline in national a
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