$Archaea Energy(LFG.US)$ De-spac Play (M&A closed: 9/15/21) currently undervalued LFG is the Leading Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Company through the simultaneous merger of Aria Energy and Archaea Energy Sector Opportunity:Natural Gas has seen a major price increase based on Hurricane Ida, up 80% YTD and 31% last month; LFG is tracking that performance up 79% YTD and 32% last month; Goldman thinks the price of Natural Gas could double and recently invested $40M Revenue:$204M, growing at 38% CAGR; 2x better than the competitors Profitability:Day 1 profitable $40M in ‘20; In ’21, $65M, 38% margin; 10x EBITDA growth in 5 years; 3x better than the competitors Valuation:Trading at ~16x 2022 EV/EBITDA, Comps trading at 31x; Implies the stock is currently undervalued and could double Analyst coverage:PT $32 based on Ortex data, implies a 66% upside Institutions:Very high Ownership Accumulation Score on fintel, (Ranked 93 out of 21,606 companies); 72 Institutional Investors; Goldman recently invested $40M Stock:Up 30% in the last month; 100% upside based on comps: PT $40 Thinly traded stock with no shares to borrow, major volume spike could really drive price higher Catalysts:Natural gas price increases, Initiation reports from more established banks, continued institution buying, $National Fuel Gas(NFG.US)$$Ultrapar Participacoes(UGP.US)$$Atmos Energy(ATO.US)$
National Fuel Gas股票讨论
5年来营收除2019和2023外增长了3年,营业利润则仅在2021和2022年迅速增长,其余3年小幅下跌,净利润则受资本性资产减值影响在2020年亏损,5年平均净利3.2亿。2023年利息费用占营业利润的17.5%,利息负担较重。净资产收益率18.9%,5年最高达到29.3%。
由于NFG有4成收入来自公用事业,所以周期性表现的低于其它股票。
目前市盈率9.8,市盈率TTM9.8, 5年平均净利对应市盈率为14.5,市净率1.56,股息率3.84%,估值对于周期股来说吸引力不大。
尽管出现看跌走势,但三只股票还是设法测试了买入点。铁路游戏 $CSX运输(CSX.US)$ ,金牌游戏 $纽曼矿业(NEM.US)$...
黄金矿商和石油股在行业集团中领涨。这些行业集团继续为希望在市场上保持活跃的投资者提供大量的突破机会。但是股市仍然...
De-spac Play (M&A closed: 9/15/21) currently undervalued
LFG is the Leading Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Company through the simultaneous merger of Aria Energy and Archaea Energy
Sector Opportunity:Natural Gas has seen a major price increase based on Hurricane Ida, up 80% YTD and 31% last month; LFG is tracking that performance up 79% YTD and 32% last month; Goldman thinks the price of Natural Gas could double and recently invested $40M
Revenue:$204M, growing at 38% CAGR; 2x better than the competitors
Profitability:Day 1 profitable $40M in ‘20; In ’21, $65M, 38% margin; 10x EBITDA growth in 5 years; 3x better than the competitors
Valuation:Trading at ~16x 2022 EV/EBITDA, Comps trading at 31x; Implies the stock is currently undervalued and could double
Analyst coverage:PT $32 based on Ortex data, implies a 66% upside
Institutions:Very high Ownership Accumulation Score on fintel, (Ranked 93 out of 21,606 companies); 72 Institutional Investors; Goldman recently invested $40M
Stock:Up 30% in the last month; 100% upside based on comps: PT $40 Thinly traded stock with no shares to borrow, major volume spike could really drive price higher
Catalysts:Natural gas price increases, Initiation reports from more established banks, continued institution buying,
$National Fuel Gas(NFG.US)$ $Ultrapar Participacoes(UGP.US)$ $Atmos Energy(ATO.US)$
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