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人工智能革命将在2025年选出10位获胜者。软件成为关键参与者。
根据Wedbush的分析师Dan Ives的说法,经过2024年底的回调,人工智能股票预计将在2025年反弹并继续其上升轨迹。Ives因其对苹果、特斯拉和微软等主要科技公司的预测以及更广泛的行业趋势而获得认可,预计将出现显著反弹。
股票在2025年首次交易前上涨;亚洲和欧洲下跌
美国基准股票在周四的开盘钟声前呈上涨趋势,交易员们为新年的首次交易做好准备。标准普尔500指数上涨了0.6%,道琼斯指数
社交热议:WSB热门概念股票在周四盘前上涨;MicroStrategy和Robinhood Markets将高开
在Reddit子论坛WSB热门概念中,最受关注的股票在周四开盘前几个小时上涨。MicroStrategy (MSTR) 在市场开盘前几个小时上涨了6%,扭转了4.4%的下跌。
泡沫显而易见,Palantir估值高企,为何现在是卖出最佳时机?
这些受到冲击的S&P 500股票在2025年可能会迎来反弹。
尽管2024年普遍看好,但一些S&P 500股票在2024年却大幅下跌。
今天这些股票波动最大:特斯拉、Palantir、英伟达、SoFi、NIO等 -- Barrons.com
乔·沃尔费尔报道,周四是2025年的第一个交易日,期货上涨,2024年恒星币表现出色,S&P 500上涨了23%,实现了连续第二年超过20%的涨幅。
ken jc : 确保在达到80时不会掉落
10baggerbamm : 我认为在你奔跑之前你需要爬行。
尽管丹·艾夫斯百分之百看好,他相信Palantir将成为今年人工智能建设中最大的受益者之一,而这一趋势仍在加速发展。
Ben对技术面分析并不看好,他甚至没有利用它。他是一个关注市场趋势大局的思考者,不担心股价从30跌到20,因为他看的是大局。
话虽如此,一周多之前我曾警告过,如果我们看到年底前和新年后组合投资组合的换手操作,以及看到股票交易下跌至其移动平均线,这并不让我感到意外,而实际情况也正是如此。
我相信我说过当股价高出七个点左右时,我认为它可能会下跌至74美元。
现在让我们谈谈技术面的损害。
这需要假设我们不会看到任何宣布逆转我的言论的合同,这纯粹是看着你面前的情景,尽管可能会改变,而且再次逆转,如果Palantir获得政府的合同,它会再次大放异彩,或者从任何他们公布的合同。
我关注着数百家不同行业的公司,并且我一直看到一个反复出现的模式,即当一支股票跌破其20日移动平均线时,它的趋势会向下,而不管更广泛的市场如何,最终它的走势都将向下。
志愿者跌破了它的20日线,之前有很多因素导致这种情况,涉及税法出售和做空者一拥而上,机构在本周一和周二大规模抛售这只股票。
我认为这是可能的,尤其是如果我们出现了很多论点中谈到的10%的调整,几乎可以看到这种自我实现的预言在发生,如果我们出现这种类型的调整,我认为看到Palantir上涨到60多美元是现实的,可能会达到68至69美元。这是因为它的均线突破并且趋势反转。
如果你像丹·艾夫斯这样有远见的人,不用担心,因为卡普将继续推动业绩,正如他所说,做空者们享受你们的追加保证金要求。
如果您是短期投资者,您可能想要对空头头寸出售一些认购期权,或者您可能想要略微减仓,因为我认为接下来的几周内,您将看到机构重新平衡他们的投资组合,他们将利用市场上涨来抛售空头头寸。因为 Palantir 可能从其投资组合的2%起步,最终占到12%至15%甚至更多的份额,这超出了他们所能管理的指导原则,必须降至5%或最大限额,因此他们被迫出售。
如果您的投资周期较短,您可能希望卖出一些认购期权以获得收入,或者您可能希望将该头寸减少30%或50%,因为很可能您将有机会以比当前价格低8-10个点回购。
even though Dan Ives is 100% bullish and he believes palantir is going to be one of the best benefactors this year with regard to the AI build-out That's continuing to accelerate.
Ben ises not great about technical analysis he doesn't even utilize it he is a market trend big picture thinker and he does not worry about the price of a stock if it goes from 30 to 20 within a two or three month period of time frame because he's looking at the big picture.
that being said I cautioned a little over a week ago that it wouldn't surprise me if we see window dressing and if we see rebalancing in portfolios leading up to the end of the year and then after the New Year and that we could see the stock trade down to its moving average which it did.
I believe I said $74 when the stock was seven or so points higher that I thought it could trade down to.
now let's talk about technical damage that was done
and this assumes that we're not going to get any contracts announced to reverse what I'm saying this is strictly looking at the picture that's in front of you which can change and it can reverse again if palantir gets a contract from the government it's off to the races again or contract from anybody that they announce.
I follow several hundred companies variety of different industries and the reoccurring pattern that I've been seeing is when a stock breaches it's 20-day moving average it trends lower and it doesn't matter what the broader Market does It ultimately will trend lower.
volunteer broke it's 20 day there was a lot leading into it it was tax law selling it was short sellers jumping on top your institutions pounding the shit out of the stock Monday and Tuesday of this week.
I think it's possible especially if we get a 10% correction that a lot of these bobbleheads are talking about and you almost get this self-fulfilling prophecy that takes place if we get that type of a correction I think it's realistic to see palantir in the high 60s it could be 68 to $69. and this is because it did break it's moving average it rolled over.
if you're a big picture thinker like Dan Ives don't worry about it because Karp is going to continue to put the numbers up and as he said short sellers enjoy your margin calls.
if you are shorter term oriented you may want to sell some calls against your position or you may want to take a little bit off the table because I think you're going to see institutions rebalancing their portfolios over the next couple of weeks possibly and they will use rallies to sell into because pltr which might have started at 2% of their portfolio turned out to be 12 to 15% or more of the portfolio and it exceeds the guidelines that they can manage it must be brought down to 5% or Max limits so they are forced to sell.
so if you are shorter term oriented you may want to sell some calls to bring an income or you may want to reduce your balance of this position by 30% or 50% because it's very possible you're going to be able to buy it back and then not too distant future maybe 8-10 points lower than it currently is