$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$
觀點網 11月17日，在人們對剛剛落下帷幕的"雙十一"關注度未減的之時，阿里巴巴公開了2023財年第二季度業績並舉行了電話會議。
　　參加此次電話會議的有董事會主席兼首席執行官張勇、執行副主席蔡崇信以及首席財務官徐宏。
　　財務數據顯示，2023財年第二季度阿里巴巴集團收入2071.76億元，同比增長3%；經營利潤251.37億元，同比增長68%；經調整EBITA（息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤）361.64億元，同比增長29%。
　　放榜之前，市場是多數看好其盈利連跌四季後，有望恢復正增長。公佈後的財務數據也算是不負衆望，好於市場預期。
　　阿里人也對自己和未來充滿了自信，正如張勇在發言中所說："不管潮起潮落，我們始終對自己充滿信心，對未來更是充滿信心"。
　　聚焦"雙十一"
　　電話會議中，今年這個特殊的"雙十一"多次被提及。自2009年舉辦該活動以來，各大平台也是首次未公開最終交易數據。
　　儘管阿里方面表示天貓"雙十一"交易規模與去年持平（2021年GMV爲5403億元，較2020年同期增長8...

Come 2022, the global economy will be moving into the third year since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. As governments and businesses gradually migrate their tactics from coping with a pandemic to an endemic, emergency stimulus is being reined back, which will shift the investment landscape in 2022.
Overall, we believe that staying invested remains crucial. The global recovery should continue to benefit risk assets such as global equities and corporate credit. However, rich valuation would mean there is a slimmer margin of error, and active selection in region and sector is even more critical.
Where are we in the economic cycle?
The answer varies depending on where we are in the world. Overall, we believe the global economy is still in the early to mid part of the economic cycle. The fastest recovery growth phase is likely to be behind us in developed economies such as the U.S. and Europe, but it is still accelerating in Asia and emerging markets.
We believe China’s growth rate could start to stabilize in 1H 2022 with modest fiscal and monetary stimulus. Domestic demand and services could replace exports in delivering growth for China in 2022.
In the U.S., We continue to believe the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) policy decisions would be driven by the progress of its economic recovery.
Overall, we expect to see the impulse of global growth shift from developed economies to Asia and select emerging markets.
What are the key political events to watch out for?
What changes are likely for China’s economic model?
On the minds of Chinese policy makers are long-term challenges such as environmental sustainability, low population growth, greater self-sufficiency in technology output and financial stability. To tackle these issues, corresponding initiatives have been introduced, related policies.
Admittedly, these policy initiatives may help China reset its economic model and improve growth potentials in the long run. However, Since July 2021, the intensive regulatory actions and property market curbs have weighed on domestic investment and consumption. Hence, policy easing is expected in 4Q 2021 and 1H 2022 to stabilize the economy, although the scale could be moderate.
Moving into 2022, credit conditions in the domestic property market may continue to improve to support first-time home buyers and housing construction projects. Compared with 2021, Chinese export growth is likely to slow as Southeast Asian exporters recover from the pandemic and take some of China’s share in global trade. Domestic demand may become the major growth driver in China’s economy.
In 2022, investors should consider the sectors with ample policy tailwinds. This implies decarbonization and new energy, self-sufficiency in technology hardware and resilient domestic technology supply chains should be the major themes to follow. Meanwhile, opportunities may appear in the consumer staples and services sectors when growth stabilizes and valuations still remain attractive.
When will inflation come down?
we would expect headline inflation around the world to come off the highs of 2021, but the undercurrent of firmer inflation could continue. Likewise, inflation in the U.S. is expected to come down from the 5-6% range. However, given the strong recovery momentum and some supply-side and labor market distortions, core inflation could remain above the Fed’s target of 2% for much of 2022. This could pressure the Fed to more seriously consider raising interest rates before the end of 2022.
Would central banks turn more hawkish?
As the bright spot of growth moves around the world, we expect developed market central banks to turn more hawkish first. Asian central banks could be more willing to wait for an economic rebound to take shape before they consider raising policy rates. Despite the prospects of higher policy rates and government bond yields in the next 1-2 years, real interest rates are likely to remain low or even negative in some cases.
How should Asian investors allocate to equities, fixed income and other assets?
Since the global economy is still in the early (for Asia and selected emerging markets) and mid (for the U.S. and Europe) parts of the economic cycle, risk assets such as equities and corporate credit are likely to, on a risk-adjusted basis, outperform conservative assets such as fixed income and cash.
For equities, international diversification remains key. The emphasis can shift gradually from developed markets, such as the U.S. and Europe, back toward China and Asia. China is still going through an economic slowdown brought on by policy changes and regulatory reforms. These underlying conditions are unlikely to change drastically in 2022, but the underperformance of Chinese equities in 2021 has already factored in some of these challenges. Moreover, there are sectors, such as decarbonization and import substitutions, that can enjoy policy tailwinds. Rising vaccination rates across Asia should allow for a more sustained domestic recovery and potential for earnings upgrade as the region’s governments adopt their strategies to live with COVID-19.
$SPDR 標普500指數ETF (SPY.US)$ $道瓊斯指數 (.DJI.US)$ $滬深300 (000300.SH)$

能捉到老鼠的貓就是好貓。中國股票、香港股票、新加坡或美國股票，能賺錢的才是好股票。最近阿里巴巴股票大幅下跌，可能會繼續下跌，但正如有人曾經說過的，恐懼時買入。如果阿里巴巴回升，你就會發大財。最後，請自行做足功課，投資都要用能夠承受損失的資金。

除非中國政府放不要再打壓和監管部門放鬆一下，就有就會反彈

$蔚來 (NIO.US)$ Chinese premium electric vehicle maker Nio’s stock (NYSE: NIO) has declined by about 19% over the last month, considerably underperforming the S&P 500 which remained roughly flat over the same period. The decline follows the company’s lighter than expected delivery guidance for Q4 (see below) and broader selling pressure in U.S. listed Chinese stocks after ride-hailing firm Didi Chuxing indicated that it intends to delist from the NYSE less than six months after going public, amid regulatory pressures in both the U.S. and China. However, the longer-term outlook for Nio hasn’t really changed in our view, and the current issues appear to be only transitory. Demand for EVs in China remains strong, and Nio is looking to bolster its production capacity at its Hefei plant to 240,000 vehicles a year by the first half of 2022. The company is also expanding its product line, with its first sedan, the ET7, likely to begin deliveries as soon as the first quarter of next year, with two other models also in the pipeline for a 2022 launch. This should set Nio up for solid growth in the coming years.

$花旗集團 (C.US)$ 花旗集團和瑞銀策略家在本週的報告中指出，在紐約證券交易所和納斯達克交易的中國公司美國存託凭證（ADRs）已經 "過度調整"，或許是開始討價還價的時候了。花旗集團的艾莉西亞·亞普(Alicia Yap)表示，市場目前過高評估中國概念股的公司風險。亞普還補充說：我們認為，對於那些在中國香港、中國和美國上市的大型存託股而言，這次折價甚至是一個很好的買入機會。
$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$ $騰訊控股(ADR) (TCEHY.US)$ $蔚來 (NIO.US)$

$蔚來 (NIO.US)$ NIO 日 > 任何風險
讓我們看看這個東西運行！