Hello Bears!
Another good day for my NQ shorts and VIX longs!
But my commodities took a hit, heres why. As I mentioned in my update II that some (turns out all) had run too high and separated too far from their Moving Averages. They needed a sell down so that the MAs can "catch up" this is called consolidation, if you just bought it is painful (I went through it last year). So rather than me just yell 🗣 BUY COMMODITIES 🗣, let me explain why this trade is still "young" (in baseball let's say it's the bottom of the 3rd inning top of the 5th at the latest) why it will still make tons of money and maybe important to some how it happened.
How it happened: simple covid (sure there were signs this was due *the charts dont lie and predicted it coming, weird right*
) but covid caused it. When the world shut down for covid (the mines closed, the production/refiners shut down, the ports and sources of transportation slowed or stopped) the materials needed for production/growth were used up and no new materials replaced them. (this works for all commodities, example fertilizer, the farmers used all the fertilizer available, but when the new season started there wasn't any more fertilizer the miners didnt mine it, and what they had didnt ship or shipped slowly and was used up, so now that everything has started again the farmers still need fertilizer but the miners cant mine fast enough to meet demand (miners stopped mining potash but farmers didnt stop using it) and the processors cant process it fast enough to meet demand and cant get enough supply to process. This entire mess causes prices to climb. (The farmer who needs fertilizer and can pay the most will pay the most, those who can't pay dont grow enough crops. the real world is harsh.) But this isn't sympathy this is money. And if you have commodities you have money.
Why is this early- I could give you the "super cycle" wave theory but then I'm explaining even more technicals. This is early because it was just recognized. This was not a top, it is a breather.
但礦業公司的股價創下歷史新高?那又怎樣,特斯拉在「歷史新高」時漲了多少呢!?或者蘋果、微軟,你懂的。礦業/鋼鐵/石油燃料幣等公司是很棒的公司,從未賺過這麼多錢(那為什麼不會繼續往上漲),根據通脹調整或黃金/白銀/銅/任何您想要的商品價格,它們根本沒達到歷史新高。
鋼鐵公司呢?他們肯定達到了頂峰?為什麼會達到頂峰呢?他們為HRC(熱軋卷鋼)每噸超過1400美元(歷史平均在400-600之間),是平均水平的兩倍多,如果您聽財報,他們現金流增加了100%以上,它們被定價為頂部,但每噸價格在800美元!我們幾乎翻了一番。熱軋卷鋼價格今天下跌,但這是期貨,像其他任何東西一樣會回檔,這種情況(就像石油一樣)不會持久,因為人們需要鋼鐵,而且供不應求(我知道這一點,因為認識競標這些的經銷商/供應商)。我也知道,作為最終用戶,無法獲取所需的建材。
今天導致商品抛售的恐懼是通脹已達頂峰,因此價格也是如此。然而,這在任何層面上都不真實。通貨膨脹並未達到頂峰(聯邦儲備局今天承認這一點,當鮑爾表示他們不會考慮對抗通脹時,這是一種失敗的承認,他們無法提高利率來控制通脹,但可以透過高通脹和高利率來「減緩」它,但這將意味著更高的價格。
karnithya : 師傅,你有沒有提供什麼特別是期權的信號?你有不和或有電報嗎?
iamiam 樓主 karnithya : 不,我不會。我有時會在購買或尋找選擇的時候發帖。但選擇是棘手的,所以我不喜歡有人買入,然後不知道他們在做什麼,持有太長時間或其他東西而導致損失。但如果可以的話,我很樂意回答任何問題。
Markio1315 : 真的..我賣了$Timkensteel (TMST.US)$在鮑威爾之前,但如果價格合適的話,以後會考慮加入。這是一種整合,而不是逆轉,不像一些虧損的科技股。所有的工業企業都在期待着在不久的將來爆發。
iamiam 樓主 : NQ期貨綠色
iamiam 樓主 : 還有SLB&CLF大綠色售前。希望它能保持下去,我對此表示懷疑,但也許
Kopi is Life : 感謝你一如既往的通俗易懂。乾杯
iamiam 樓主 : 巴姆·克里菲!
克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公佈每股收益為1.71美元,高於預期的1.4美元,超出預期22.14%。
營收比去年同期增長19.1億美元。
iamiam 樓主 : SLB
斯倫貝謝第一季度營收為59.6億美元,而去年同期為52.2億美元
Ben 23 : 我的天啊。你説得太對了。在拋售之後,它們今天出現了反彈。
iamiam 樓主 Ben 23 : 要小心,它們可能會劇烈波動,但最終仍會下跌,這是一個很好的故事,説明成交量的大幅波動或降温大量的成交量從賣家手中帶來了一批新的買家,同時淘汰了這裏的交易員,以便以任何一種方式快速獲利。
查看更多評論...