StockTalk (5.10): 評估中國經濟-復甦或抑鬱的跡象？

What is your name : 是的，看看莎莎房地產信託基金

GodSpeed289 : 還不是一個好時機。中國的經濟本質上是供應驅動的，而不是由需求驅動，而且實際上嚴重依賴房地產。本地生產總值的數字並不會說謊。緩解中國政府對科技公司的監管鎮壓將是一個關鍵因素。以及「共同繁榮」議程。中國房地產市場的快速下滑可能會影響中國整體經濟。因此，在決定購買中國股票之前，您需要對這些權衡。

doctorpot1 : 美國中國緊張局勢，潛在的新戰爭，制裁和貿易戰。所有這些都為中國市場增加了很多風險和不確定性，因此價格儘管表現出良好的數字，但這也意味著我們可以更便宜，如果經濟反彈，那麼華特廖

ZnWC : 投資中國的理由：
1. 以國內生產總值計算的第二大經濟體-太大而不容忽視
2.解除旅行限制後經濟復甦
3.許多美國公司直接或間接在中國投資

中國風險投資：
1.中美對台灣問題的緊張
2.低通脹和增長放緩，可能會出現停滯
3.人口正在萎縮和老化-影響需求

儘管有風險，我會在我的投資組合中保留一些中國股票，但不是像沃倫·巴菲特那樣。在經濟衰退恐懼的情況下，多元化是投資的關鍵。

bullrider_21 : The best time to buy China stocks was in Oct last year when rumours of it easing Covid-19 restrictions surfaced. The rumours turned out to be true when China reopened from its zero- Covid policy by lifting most restrictions in Dec. The MSCI China Index bottomed and surged because investors were expecting a strong rebound from the reopening. The $CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$ rebounded 22% by Jan this year.

But the rebound turned out weaker than expected. Consumption and manufacturing were lower than expected. Tech stocks, the biggest gainers, fell back on fears of U.S. sanctions. U.S.- China tension is a risk to a market rally. The CSI 300 retraced 43% of its rise from its Oct 2022 bottom to its Jan 2023 peak.

But China has set a target of 5% GDP growth this year. If the growth is slower than expected, China would undertake stimulus measures.

The pullback may be a good time to buy. This 2 weeks, Chinese financial stocks continued on their 6- day winning streak, the longest in 4 months. Brokerage shares also surged as much as 4.1%, reaching its highest level in 11 months.

The latest gains in major state firms from banks to securities firms and telecom operators indicate that Beijing's pledge to widen funding access for them has offered investors a fresh reason to restart a stalled reopening rally. Several Chinese lenders' recent decisions to cut deposit rates also have boosted appetite for the banking sector.

When the market sentiment is still fragile and investors are relatively conservative in their moves, bank names are often favoured in China. Investors like their dividend yields and the call from the authorities to discover the value in central State- owned Enterprises (SOEs).