Can Tesla's Q3 Earnings Help Bounce Back From Robotaxi Launch?
$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ is set to report its third-quarter earnings on October 23rd, and after a rocky few weeks, all eyes are on the company. The EV giant recently held a highly anticipated robotaxi event, but the market response was underwhelming.
Investors were left with more questions than answers, and Tesla's stock took a hit, falling around 9% after the event. With its upcoming earnings report, Tesla has a chance to refocus attention on its fundamentals.
Revenue Vs. Profit
For the third quarter, analysts expect Tesla's revenue to hit $25.67 billion, up 9.9% from last year's $23.35 billion. However, the company's profits are under pressure. Analysts predict Tesla will report a net income of $1.68 billion, down from $1.85 billion a year ago. Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be $0.50, a 4% decline year over year.
Tesla's revenue growth is positive, but the profit drop has raised concerns. The company faces higher costs, competitive pricing pressures, and challenges maintaining strong profit margins in a highly competitive EV market. Investors are watching closely to see how these factors affect Tesla's long-term profitability.
Tesla's track record over the last eight quarters has been mixed. According to TipRanks, the company has only met or beaten earnings per share (EPS) expectations in half of those quarters and missed the mark in the last four.
Besides, when Tesla releases its earnings report, there's only a 25% chance that the stock price will increase. On average, the stock price changes by about 10.37% on these days, with the highest increase being 12.06% and the largest drop reaching 12.33%.
More Cars Delivered, But Margins Are What Matter
Almost 80% of Tesla's revenue comes from selling electric vehicles. In the third quarter, Tesla announced that it delivered 463,000 cars worldwide, a 6.4% increase compared to last year and a 4.3% increase from the previous quarter. This is a turnaround, as deliveries had dropped by about 9% in the first quarter and 5% in the second quarter of this year.
However, even though Q3 did return to year-over-year sales growth, it wasn't enough to please investors. As a result, the company's stock price fell nearly 4% on the day the delivery numbers were announced.
It's important to note that Tesla's gross margins have generally declined over the past twelve quarters. In the second quarter of this year, the gross margin was 18%, about 20 basis points lower than last year. There is also a possibility of a slight decline in gross margins for the third quarter.
Why the disconnect? To stay competitive, Tesla has had to cut prices in key markets, including the U.S. and China. This pricing strategy has led to lower average selling prices, which could further squeeze margins.
Barclays analysts stated that Tesla's profit margins have "bottomed out." They expect the company's third-quarter sales to remain flat compared to last year's period, representing an improvement over the declining sales seen earlier this year. The analysts predict that the automotive gross margin for Q3 will beat expectations, reaching 18.2%.
Robotaxi: Opportunities And Challenges
After the robotaxi event, the company unveiled its vision for a self-driving "Cybercab." However, the event needed clear information about how the fleet would make money or grow, leaving investors disappointed. Investors have also not heard any updates about a more affordable or redesigned Model Y.
"Disappointing lack of detail," Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's high-profile auto analyst and a TSLA bull, proclaimed in his investor note following the event. Wells Fargo analysts echoed that sentiment, writing that Tesla's robotaxi event was mostly "razzle-dazzle" with "little substance." Jonas said he had been seeking quantifiable data on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system improvements. He also hoped to hear about plans for supervised and unsupervised ride-sharing services.
"Tesla's robotaxi event focused more on long-term vision than on immediate deliverables or new sources of revenue," Bernstein's Sacconaghi also wrote in a note. The company showcased prototypes, including a two-door sedan called the Cybercab, a concept van, and an updated Optimus robot. However, it missed key details investors hoped for - such as the transition from advanced driver-assistance systems to fully autonomous vehicles, the roadmap for regulatory approval, and proof that Tesla is ahead of competitors like Alphabet's Waymo.
Energy Storage Business: Still Growing But Slower
In addition to its EV business, Tesla has been focusing on its energy and storage products. In Q3, Tesla deployed 6.9 gigawatt-hours of storage products, a 73% year-over-year increase but a 27% drop from the previous quarter. While these numbers are still better than last year, the slowdown has raised concerns about the consistency of growth in this segment.
Though growing, Tesla has yet to contribute significantly to overall profits. Investors are keen to see how Tesla plans to expand this part of the business and whether it can eventually rival its EV division in revenue and profit generation.
Source: MarketWatch
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PrimeD : 對不起像樣的毛利率下跌，是因為每輛車的平均價格下降了？不管怎樣，投資者都不喜歡這個。
10baggerbamm : 中國的汽車銷售將加速嗎？目前沒有人在談論這個問題，但他們正在刺激經濟。他們希望讓人們多消費，如果他們消費的話，就會買更多的汽車，而特斯拉將是其中的受益者之一。
102185397 : 短期-痛苦：TSLA 股票進一步下跌；長期-上漲：今年底或 2025 年初
101894806 : 哇
101894806 : 哇
10312907 : -15％
RDK79 : 不
RDK79 : 也許伊隆將在喬治亞、內華達、密西根開始贈送紅色特斯拉...
Mr Willy from philly : 如果他們專注於做到最好的事情，那麼接下來的事情將會為他們帶來成功
DepoDoherty : 幸運的是，我今天和明天或星期五都能得到這房子，這樣我們就可以從這裡著手並且學習他人的經驗，任期直至星期一快速回應您的錄影機系統並立即及永久地遺失在早晨，然後我們可以一起學到很多與您公司維持在正軌上，依賴我的仁慈，這樣我可以逐步穩固到目的地，我將為您寄送一些時間表以協助您在這方面，這是您可以為積極的未來所作的最大讚美，對於新一年的熱情可能是我一生中的第一次，我將支付新一年的生活費以遵循黃金準繩以及食指和拇指以獲得新的經驗，與我們在同一艘船上以安全的方式返回，對於精神健康辦公室直至7月，我很樂於任條件。