There's a 30% chance of the RBA hiking rates in August, as CPI is rising again and inflation is going to push up even further in the 2H. But rate hikes are budging the key CPI pressure

Look at my chart. Rate hikes aren't slowing the biggest contributors to CPI. Rate hikes are just hurting 50% of the population (who live week to week). 1- Look at the correlation with CPI (orange), the oil price (in white), the Au ga spump price (blue), residential property prices (purple). But remember the RBA has rates at 4.35%. 12 year-highs

2- Inflation rose faster than expected for the 3rd month in May (+4% YoY, vs 3.6% in April). Remember the RBA target for inflation is 2-3%. The biggest contributors to inflation: Housing (+5.2%), Transport (+4.9%), Alcohol & tobacco (+6.7%), Food & non-alcoholic beverages (+3.3%).

3 - Housing costs overall rose 5.2% in the year to May (vs 4.9% in April). Rents +7.4% for the year, reflecting a tight rental market. New dwelling prices rose 4.9% in the year, with builders passing on higher labour and material costs.

4- Electricity prices rose 6.5% in the year to May (vs 4.2% in April). Out-of-pocket costs for electricity are rising too, as the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates are being used.