R.I.P Goldilocks. The soft landing died today.
Team higher-for-longer (and their hawkish brethren at the Fed) continues to focus on badly lagging indicators like rent and services inflation, while ignoring the fact that retail sales ex-gas 3mma on-year-ago is up 2.9% (nominal), a new cycle low and well BELOW levels which were consistent w/ 2% inflation in the last economic cycle. The last 3 months were DOWN on the previous 3 months, so we are also decelerating sharply.
Noticeable labor market we...