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102567931 保密 ID: 102567931
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    AlanticE downgraded BABA .. I think this Company either have no foresight or his a very very weak hearted old man. Now seriously!! when is already 118. just what is going through in your head. Lol
    这机构在118价位把阿里评价调低。。该公司不是没远见 就是有个蚂蚁大的心呗。AlanticE 啥也不是 tuitui
    $阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$ 
    1
    $AMC院線 (AMC.US)$ 耶!驚奇蜘蛛人已經在本週末之前瞄準國際票房超過五十億美元。
    https://deadline.com/tag/spider-man-no-way-home/
    已翻譯
    蜘蛛人已經瞄準全球5億美元以上的票房了。
    $標普500指數 (.SPX.US)$  $標普500波動率指數 (.VIX.US)$  $SPDR黄金ETF (GLD.US)$  $巴里克黃金 (GOLD.US)$ 
    The market has been on a tear ever since its huge 35% correction in March 2020- S&P index drop from 3400 to 2200- due to the Covid 19 pandemic. It has more than doubled from the bottom to its current level at 4650.  
    So what's the outlook ahead?
    Is it on a never-ending trajectory to the moon?
    We will be looking at 6 indicators and the chart of S&P to give us some indication if things are getting way too hot that will lead to the imminent meltdown. 
    The power of the Fed printing machine has worked wonders. But is the market getting too complacent?
    Buffet Indicator
    Source: currentmarketvaluation.com
    The Buffett Indicator is defined as the value of a country's publicly traded stocks divided by its gross national product. The greatest investor of our lifetime, Warren Buffet, have used this indicator to assist him to gauge where the valuation of the market stands at any moment in time. 
    We are now way off the charts and looks excessively overvalued. If the market just reverts to the historical trendline, it could easily be a 50% correction. 
    Berkshire cash holdings of 149 billion are also at their all-time high and constitute around 17% of their total assets of 873 billion dollars.
    Shiller Cape Ratio
    Source: multp.com
    The next indicator we are looking at would be the Shiller Cape Ratio. It is the cyclical adjusted price-earnings ratio. 
    Due to the cyclical nature of the markets, an outlier pe ratio (a recession for the year) could distort the analysis of the market valuation. 
    Thus, Professor Robert Shiller came up with the CAPE ratio to adjust for cyclicality- taking the average of 10 years PE- and hence portray a more accurate picture of the valuation of the market.
    The current Shiller Cape Ratio is only surpassed by the dot com bubble in 2000. We are not in the value zone. 
    Some explanation for the high ratio could be due to the ultra-low interest rate environment that would enhance the valuation of the market- cash flow is discounted at lower rates which leads to a higher valuation. 
    With inflationary effects creeping in, where the US recently have hit an inflation figure of 6%, the days of low-interest rates might not be a certainty in the future.
    VIX- Volatility Index
    Source: Yahoo finance
    VIX is a measure of volatility or fear factor in the market. It is derived from the implied volatility of the S&P 500 options. There is a negative correlation between price moves and the VIX. 
    The VIX tends to increase when the market falls. The VIX has been recently showing some strength and has reached around the 30 levels just this week but it has since retraced back to the low 20s level. 
    A break above the 30 levels could signal the start of a market correction which is possible as the VIX seems to be building up momentum at the moment.
    Fed Balance Sheet
    Source: Tradingeconomics.com
    Looking at the Fed Balance Sheet, we could see the US money printing machine at full throttle. The amount is 8.66 trillion which have more than doubled since 2020. 
    The Fed balance sheet comprises mainly of treasuries that they have purchased through money printing. 
    The huge amount just highlights that things might be out of control and the only way to keep the party going is to print more and deleverage using this approach. Moreover, the government debt is also escalating to new records, it currently stands at 28 trillion dollars.
    The critical question that we have to ask ourselves would be when will the confidence of US dollars be eroded with the insane money printing machine at work?
    Our take is when we see China's treasuries holding fall below the 1 trillion mark- have been holding slightly above 1 trillion through the years- that could be a marker for us to be cautious.
    The Commitment of Traders for S&P 500
    Source: barchart.com
    The commitment of traders indicator is to gauge the positioning of the different players in the futures market. At this juncture, the large speculators which we deem as the smart money is still net long on the S&P 500 futures with an increasing position sizing.
    This could mean the rally might still have legs. 
    AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
    Source: AAII.com
    The last indicator we will be looking at will be the AAII investors survey sentiment. It measures the mood of individual investors. 
    Based on the latest statistics, it is showing the highest neutral sentiment in 2 years. The AAII sentiment is usually used as a contrarian indicator where an ultra bullish sentiment would be taken in negatively and a slant towards a market correction could be round the corner.
    Based on the current reading, it would be inconclusive.
    Chartist Point of View
    Source: Investing.com- S&P 500 chart
    The trend is your friend. The uptrend of the S&P 500 is intact. 
    First hints of weakness would only surface if it breaches below 4500 levels. The critical support would be at 4200-4300 levels which would be the first target if S&P retraces. 
    A deeper correction could be on the cards if the 4200 level does not hold, a medium-term target could see the S&P 500 testing the 3500 level.
    For now, as long as 4200 holds, we are still bullish as the uptrend is still intact.
    Summing Up
    In this write-up, we took a look at 6 indicators to gauge if the S&P 500 is looking peakish. They are namely:
    Buffet Indicator
    Shiller Cape Ratio
    VIX
    Fed Balance Sheet
    Commitment of Traders
    AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
    The first 4 indicators are showing signs of the market reaching peakish levelswith the indicators reaching levels that are way above their mean or even reaching all-time highs.
    However, as John Maynard Keynes famously quoted:
    "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
    As for the Commitment of Traders, the smart money is still net long the S&P 500 while the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is not showing any conclusive contrarian angle.
    Finally, the charts are still showing the uptrend is intact and we will be on the defensive when S&P 500 breaches the 4200 level.
    A piece of advice would be if the crash comes round, it could be fast and furious. 
    So with the market looking peakish, it is wise to have an allocation to gold as a defence mechanism. Moreover, gold is trading at a reasonable level. With the latest news of Monetary Authority of Singapore increasing their gold pile for the first time in decades, it further lends weight to this thesis.
    6 Indicators to Gauge if the S&P 500 is Peaking
    6 Indicators to Gauge if the S&P 500 is Peaking
    6 Indicators to Gauge if the S&P 500 is Peaking
    +5
    $標普500指數 (.SPX.US)$ 擴音器為市場帶來波動 $標普500波動率指數 (.VIX.US)$高達21以上
    已翻譯
    圖片
    $Vinco Ventures (BBIG.US)$ close above 3.10 and uptrend bbig goes.......
    4
    sg $利安-華僑證券中國龍頭企業ETF(S$) (YYY.SG)$???但請注意,差異在於他們的費用比率:
    獅子會計算的年度為 0.62%,而黑石為 2823 港元收取 0.35%
    $安碩A50 (02823.HK)$
    已翻譯
    1
    $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$
    煮豆持作羹,
    漉豉以為汁。
    萁在釜下燃,
    豆在釜中泣。
    本是同根生,
    相煎何太急。
    2
    作者:丹尼洛
    嘿, mooer們! 以下是你們需在開盤前知道的事項:
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    - 高管和公司領導人,如華爾頓家族、馬克·祖克伯格和谷歌的聯合創始人,截至11月已售出635億美元,較2020年增加50%。這些銷售發生在市場估值飆升之際,並且在美國和一些州稅法可能發生變化之前。
    市場快照
    期貨早前持平,投資者縮減了本週早期回彈市場的投資,並將焦點轉向當天晚些時候公佈的通脹數據。
    與期貨合約相關的 $道瓊斯指數 (.DJI.US)$ 上升了52點。 $標普500指數 (.SPX.US)$ 期貨上漲了13點, $納斯達克100指數 (.NDX.US)$ 期貨增加了0.3%。
    市場溫度
    閱讀更多:市場溫度(12/10)
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    CEOs和內部人員賣出記錄高達690億美元的股票。
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    你願意為一個虛擬的Gucci包付多少錢?
    在華爾街察覺之前,買入這7只被忽視的股票。
    本週重要事件
    資訊來源:CNBC、道瓊斯新聞線、彭博
    已翻譯
    開盤之前| 馬斯克和其他內部人士正在歷史性水平上沽售股票
    開盤之前| 馬斯克和其他內部人士正在歷史性水平上沽售股票
    開盤之前| 馬斯克和其他內部人士正在歷史性水平上沽售股票
    +1
    3