China Trade
there is an interesting dynamics playing out in RMB FX market, markets have been too strong on CNH whilst most recent CNY fixing was nearly 300 pips lower than CNH’s current market pricing.
with Chinese national teams not selling into the rally like how they used to do, make me wonder A-share and H-share/ADR are going to diverge in performance next few sessions simply due to FX impact and assumed all else equal.
more specially so, Shanghai and onshore markets overall ...

Reading the tea leaves of Powell Jackson Hole speech, it was not very reassuring. The so called, “Powell Pivot” - looks more like a Powell Affirmation of current market pricing. Based on current pricing in the SOFR curve, it is almost assumed a recession in 2025, and I am not convinced that we will have such severe recession in 2025. Thus, front end of yield curve might be dropping lower much or at such precipitous pace. All eyes on employment going forward, inflation is...