Jon Ho
讚了
Buffett Indicator is the percentage of the total market cap relative to the US GDP. According to Warren Buffett, such an indicator is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.
How does the Buffett Indicator work?
In 2001, Warren Buffett said 75% to 90% are reasonable; over 120% suggests the stock market is overvalued.
As of Aug 28 2021, the Total Market Index is at US$ 46.88 trillion, about 206% of the US GDP, signaling the market is heavily overvalued.
Did Buffett Indicator work well?
Let's see the historical chart of the Buffett Indicator. The ratio reached 140% in 2000, portending the dot-com bubble which eventually burst. The NASDAQ fell by 75% from March 2000 to October 2002.
The ratio also reached 155% in Feb 2020, followed by the pandemic crash that caused the S&P500 Index to drop from 3393 to 2192, a 35% correction. However, stock market quickly bounced, doubling from the dip.
And when the ratio breaks 200%, we are witnessing history undoubtedly.
Will this time be different?
With interest rates at historic lows, there is a voice in the market that "this time is different".
Cathie Wood said: GDP statistics evolved during the Industrial Age and do not seem to be keeping up with the digital age. Thanks to productivity, real GDP growth probably is higher and inflation lower than reported, suggesting that the quality of earnings has increased significantly.
Overall, if the stock market is a game, you have to stay in the game before you beat the game. The Buffett Indicator can be a tool to relocate where we are in the stock market. It's never too late to do our due diligence and control the risk to gain a long-term return.
Do you think the Buffett Indicator is useful? Should we pay close attention or just ignore it? What should we do in response to such an indicator?
Rewards:
Click "Enter Now" to post before Sep 3, and based on the quality and originality,
5 mooers will win 2,000 points
10 mooers will win 1,000 points
Don't forget to click "Enter Now" to win!
How does the Buffett Indicator work?
In 2001, Warren Buffett said 75% to 90% are reasonable; over 120% suggests the stock market is overvalued.
As of Aug 28 2021, the Total Market Index is at US$ 46.88 trillion, about 206% of the US GDP, signaling the market is heavily overvalued.
Did Buffett Indicator work well?
Let's see the historical chart of the Buffett Indicator. The ratio reached 140% in 2000, portending the dot-com bubble which eventually burst. The NASDAQ fell by 75% from March 2000 to October 2002.
The ratio also reached 155% in Feb 2020, followed by the pandemic crash that caused the S&P500 Index to drop from 3393 to 2192, a 35% correction. However, stock market quickly bounced, doubling from the dip.
And when the ratio breaks 200%, we are witnessing history undoubtedly.
Will this time be different?
With interest rates at historic lows, there is a voice in the market that "this time is different".
Cathie Wood said: GDP statistics evolved during the Industrial Age and do not seem to be keeping up with the digital age. Thanks to productivity, real GDP growth probably is higher and inflation lower than reported, suggesting that the quality of earnings has increased significantly.
Overall, if the stock market is a game, you have to stay in the game before you beat the game. The Buffett Indicator can be a tool to relocate where we are in the stock market. It's never too late to do our due diligence and control the risk to gain a long-term return.
Do you think the Buffett Indicator is useful? Should we pay close attention or just ignore it? What should we do in response to such an indicator?
Rewards:
Click "Enter Now" to post before Sep 3, and based on the quality and originality,
5 mooers will win 2,000 points
10 mooers will win 1,000 points
Don't forget to click "Enter Now" to win!
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Jon Ho
讚了
眾所周知,蠟燭圖對交易員的情緒影響很大。但蠟燭圖究竟是什麼?
蠟燭圖
與傳統的OHLC柱狀圖相比,許多交易員認為蠟燭圖更具視覺吸引力且更容易解讀。每根蠟燭提供了一個易於解讀的價格走勢圖。分析師可以快速理解開盤價和收盤價以及最高價和最低價之間的關係...
蠟燭圖
與傳統的OHLC柱狀圖相比,許多交易員認為蠟燭圖更具視覺吸引力且更容易解讀。每根蠟燭提供了一個易於解讀的價格走勢圖。分析師可以快速理解開盤價和收盤價以及最高價和最低價之間的關係...
已翻譯
![什麼是蠟燭圖,我們如何理解它?](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/8881870611707077210.jpg/thumb)
![什麼是蠟燭圖,我們如何理解它?](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/5871816160595434846.png/thumb)
![什麼是蠟燭圖,我們如何理解它?](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/5686173002492987163.png/thumb)
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Jon Ho
讚了
買入亞洲股票的最佳時機可能是現在,摩根大通策略師週三表示。
該銀行的亞洲股票策略師Mixo Das表示,美國市場已經創下歷史新高,而歐洲和日本市場也接近歷史新高。然而,亞洲市場並未出現相同的趨勢。
自2月份的高點以來,亞洲股市已經下跌了相當多,我們的觀點是,我們的框架告訴我們,現在可能是在亞洲投資承擔風險的最佳時機。Das表示,目前投資者在亞洲的部位「非常非常輕微」,而估值水平已經回到了較為正常的水平。如果該地區的宏觀經濟動力開始穩定下來,亞洲股市的表現將會有所改善。
該銀行的亞洲股票策略師Mixo Das表示,美國市場已經創下歷史新高,而歐洲和日本市場也接近歷史新高。然而,亞洲市場並未出現相同的趨勢。
自2月份的高點以來,亞洲股市已經下跌了相當多,我們的觀點是,我們的框架告訴我們,現在可能是在亞洲投資承擔風險的最佳時機。Das表示,目前投資者在亞洲的部位「非常非常輕微」,而估值水平已經回到了較為正常的水平。如果該地區的宏觀經濟動力開始穩定下來,亞洲股市的表現將會有所改善。
已翻譯
![摩根大通策略師表示,現在可能是買入亞洲股票的最佳時機。](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/5683018006495616026.jpg/thumb)
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