By Howard Schneider
霍華德·施耐德（Howard Schneider）撰文
Washington, June 27 (Reuters) - Inflation in the U.S. "Appears to Be Narrowing" and That Should Allow the Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates Later This Year, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Said in a Policy Essay Released on Thursday.
亞特蘭大聯儲主席拉斐爾·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）在週四發佈的一篇政策文章中表示，美國通脹"似乎正在收窄"，這應該使得聯儲局今年晚些時候降息。
After Concern That Inflation Might Stall at an Elevated Level, Bostic Said Recent Data Point to Renewed Progress, Including the Fact That the Share of Goods and Services Increasing at a Greater Than 5% Annual Rate Had Dipped Below 20% - More Akin to Where It Was Before the Covid-19 Pandemic and Similar to the Share Seen When Inflation Was Slowing Fast Last Year.
博斯蒂克表示，之前有關通脹可能在高水平上停滯的擔憂，最近的數據表明出現了新的進展，包括物價漲幅超過5％的商品和服務在20％以下的份額--更類似於COVID-19流行前和通脹快速放緩時期所見的份額。"它正在朝着正確的方向前進，"博斯蒂克稱這是他的一項檢驗美國中央銀行抵抗通脹的重要指標。
"It's Moving in the Right Direction," Bostic Said of a Metric He Has Singled Out as One of His Touchstones for the U.S. Central Bank's Battle Against Inflation That Spiked to a 40-Year High in 2022.
博斯蒂克說："它（通脹）正在朝着正確的方向前進。"他把這項指標視爲聯儲局對抗2022年飆升的40年高通脹的關鍵之一。
Inflation Remains "Elevated," According to the Fed's Most Recent Policy Statement, With the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Rising at a 2.7% Annual Rate in April. the Fed's Inflation Target Is 2%, and There Has Been Little Progress in Recent Months.
根據聯儲局最近的政策聲明，通脹保持"高水平"，4月份個人消費支出物價指數以2.7％的年度速度上升。聯儲局的通脹目標是2％，但近幾個月幾乎沒有進展。
PCE Inflation Data for May Will Be Released on Friday.
5月份個人消費支出物價指數數據將於週五公佈。
Bostic Said That as Things Stand, "I Continue to Believe Conditions Will Likely Call for a Cut in the Federal Funds Rate in the Fourth Quarter of This Year." in Later Comments to Reporters, He Said That One Reason to Be "Patient" With That Initial Cut Is so That It Comes After Inflation Is on a Clear Path Back to 2%, and Can Be Seen as the First of a Series of Reductions.
博斯蒂克說，如果現狀持續下去，"我仍然相信條件將可能要求今年第四季度降低聯邦基金利率。"他在之後對記者的評論中表示，推遲初始降息的一個原因是等通脹走上明確的2%軌道，並將其視爲一系列降息的首個降息。
Investors Expect the Rate Cuts Will Start in September, With Two Quarter-Percentage-Point Reductions by the End of This Year Versus the Single Rate Cut That Bostic and Many Other Fed Policymakers Now Anticipate.
投資者預計，降息將從9月份開始實施，到今年年底將出現兩次每季度降息0.25個百分點的降息，而博斯蒂克和其他許多聯儲局決策者現在預計只會出現一次降息。
"I'm Not Locked in to Any Particular Policy Path," Bostic Said. "There Are Plausible Scenarios in Which More Cuts, No Cuts, or Even a Raise Could Be Appropriate. I Will Let the Data and Conditions on the Ground Be My Guide."
博斯蒂克說："我沒有固定任何特定政策路線。"他表示："有合理的情況，會採取更多的降息、不降息，甚至提高利率。我會讓數據和實際情況來指引我。"
And Recent Data on Jobs and Economic Growth, He Said, Point to "an Orderly Deceleration in Activity That Will Restore Balance Between Demand and Supply in the Economy ... It's Really Econ 101."
他說，在就業和經濟增長方面的最新數據表明"經濟活動正在有組織地放緩，這將恢復經濟中需求與供應之間的平衡，這是真正的經濟學101。"
Businesses in His Southeastern District, He Said in a Press Briefing Following Release of the Essay, Still Regard Inflation as the "Chief Concern," With Most Saying That Current Hiring and Employment Levels Are Sustainable.
在發表文章後的新聞發佈會上，他說，他的東南地區的企業仍然把通貨膨脹視爲"首要關注點"，大多數人認爲目前的招聘和就業水平是可持續的。
Bostic Said His Sense Is That There Is No "Cliff" Ahead for the Job Market, and That He Believes the Fed Can Meet Its Inflation Goal "With Labor Markets ... That Are Tight by Historical Standards."
博斯蒂克說，他的感覺是對於就業市場，前方沒有"懸崖"，他相信聯儲局可以通過"勞動力市場......按照歷史標準偏緊"來實現其通脹目標。
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
（霍華德·施耐德報道；Paul Simao 編輯）
((Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 789 8010;))
((Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 789 8010;))