Germany Economy to Shrink Berlin, Dec 19 (Reuters) - German Consumer Sentiment Is Expected to Improve Slightly at the Start of Next Year but at a Low Level as High Food and Energy Prices and Job Insecurity Weigh on Households, a Survey Showed on Thursday.
柏林，12月19日（路透社） - 週四的調查顯示，儘管高食品和能源價格以及就業不安對家庭施加壓力，預計德國消費者信心將在明年年初略有改善，仍處於低位。
The Consumer Sentiment Index, Published by Gfk and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (Nim), Rose More Than Expected Going Into January, to -21.3 Points From a Slightly Upwardly Revised -23.1 Points the Month Before.
由Gfk和紐倫堡市場決策研究所（Nim）發佈的消費信心指數在1月份的預期值中上漲，較前一個月輕微向上修正後的-23.1點上升至-21.3點。
Analysts Polled by Reuters Had Expected a Reading of -22.5.
路透社調查的分析師預計該讀數爲-22.5。
Gfk Said the Improvement Only Partially Compensated for Previous Declines and Sentiment Remained at a Very Low Level With Stagnation Stretching Back to the Middle of the Year.
Gfk表示改進僅部分彌補了之前的下降，情緒仍然處於非常低的水平，自年中以來一直停滯不前。
"a Sustained Recovery in Consumer Sentiment Is Not yet in Sight, as Consumer Uncertainty Is Still Too High. the Main Reason Is High Food and Energy Prices," Said Nim Analyst Rolf Buerkl.
"消費者情緒的持續復甦尚未可見，因爲消費的不確定性仍然過高。主要原因是食品和能源價格過高，" 分析師Rolf Buerkl說道。
"in Addition, Concerns About Job Security Are Growing in Many Sectors," He Said.
"此外，許多行業對工作安防的擔憂在增加，" 他說。
Several Major Companies, Such as Volkswagen, Slash Production and Cut Costs, Raising Fears of Job Losses. the Ifo Institute's Monthly Survey Showed Business Morale Was Deteriorating More Than Expected This Month.
幾家主要公司，如 大衆汽車，削減生產和成本，增加了失業的擔憂。 Ifo 研究所的月度調查顯示，本月的商業信心惡化程度超過預期。
A Snap Election in February Is Adding to Uncertainty for Europe's Biggest Economy Which Is on Track for a Second Consecutive Year of Contraction in 2024 and Is Trailing Its Euro Zone Partners.
二月份的臨時選舉增加了對歐洲最大經濟體的不確定性，該經濟體在2024年有望出現連續第二年的收縮，並且在歐元區夥伴國中落後。
Jan 2025 |
Dec 2024 |
Nov 2024 |
|
Consumer Climate |
-21.3 |
-23.1 |
-18.4 |
Consumer Climate Components |
Dec 2024 |
Nov 2024 |
Dec 2023 |
- Willingness to Buy |
-5.4 |
-6.0 |
-8.8 |
- Income Expectations |
1.4 |
-3.5 |
-6.9 |
- Business Cycle Expectations |
0.3 |
-3.6 |
-0.4 |
2025年1月 |
2024年12月 |
2024年11月 |
|
消費者氣候指數 |
-21.3 |
-23.1 |
-18.4 |
消費者氣候元件 |
2024年12月 |
2024年11月 |
2023年12月 |
購買意願 |
-5.4 |
-6.0 |
-8.8 |
- 收入預期 |
1.4 |
-3.5 |
-6.9 |
業務週期預期 |
0.3 |
-3.6 |
-0.4 |
Note - the Survey Period Was From Dec. 5 to Dec. 16, 2024.
注意 - 調查時期爲2024年12月5日至12月16日。
The Consumer Climate Indicator Forecasts the Progress of Real Private Consumption in the Following Month.
消費氣候指數預測以下月份實際私人消費的增長。
An Indicator Reading Above Zero Signals Year-on-Year Growth in Private Consumption. a Value Below Zero Indicates a Drop Compared With the Same Period a Year Earlier.
指標讀數高於零表示私人消費同比增長。低於零的值則表示與去年同期相比有所下降。
According to Gfk, a One-Point Change in the Indicator Corresponds to a Year-on-Year Change of 0.1% in Private Consumption.
根據Gfk，指標的每一點變化對應私人消費同比變化0.1%。
The "Willingness to Buy" Indicator Represents the Balance Between Positive and Negative Responses to the Question: "Do You Think Now Is a Good Time to Buy Major Items?"
「購買意願」指標代表對問題「現在購買大件物品是否是個好時機？」做出積極和消極回答的平衡。
The Income Expectations Sub-Index Reflects Expectations About the Development of Household Finances in the Coming 12 Months.
收入預期子指數反映了對未來12個月家庭財務狀況的預期。
The Additional Business Cycle Expectations Index Reflects Respondents' Assessment of the General Economic Situation Over the Next 12 Months.
附加的業務週期預期指數反映了受訪者對未來12個月經濟總體情況的評估。
The Reuters Poll for the Gfk Consumer Sentiment Is From Dec. 18
路透社關於Gfk消費者信心的調查數據來自12月18日。
(Reporting by Madeline Chambers, Editing by Kirsti Knolle)
(報道者：馬德琳·錢伯斯，編輯：基爾斯提·諾勒)
((Madeline.chambers@Thomsonreuters.com; +4930220133578;))
((Madeline.chambers@Thomsonreuters.com; +4930220133578;))