With Businesses Optimistic and Consumers Still Spending, Barkin Said He Felt the Job Market "Is More Likely to Break Toward Hiring Than Toward Firing."By Howard Schneider
作者：霍華德·施奈德
Baltimore, Jan 3 (Reuters) - The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2025 Is Positive With More Upside Than Downside Risk to Growth Despite Uncertainty About the Impact of Trade and Other Policies That May Be Pursued by the Incoming Trump Administration, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin Said on Friday.
巴爾的摩，1月3日（路透社）——聯儲局里士滿分行行長托馬斯·巴爾金在週五表示，儘管對新任特朗普政府可能採取的貿易和其他政策的影響存在不確定性，但2025年美國經濟的前景仍積極，增長的上行風險大於下行風險。
"How Economic Policy Uncertainty Resolves Will Matter. but, With What We Know Today, I Expect More Upside Than Downside in Terms of Growth," Barkin Said in Comments to the Maryland Bankers Association, With Potentially "More Risk on the Inflation Side," if, for Example, Hiring Strengthens.
巴爾金在對馬里蘭州銀行家協會的講話中表示：「經濟政策不確定性如何解決將是關鍵。但就我們今天所知，我預計增長方面的上行風險大於下行風險。」如果，例如，招聘加強，可能會「面臨更多通貨膨脹方面的風險。」
With Businesses Optimistic and Consumers Still Spending, Barkin Said He Felt the Job Market "Is More Likely to Break Toward Hiring Than Toward Firing."
巴爾金表示，隨着企業持樂觀態度，消費者依然在消費，他認爲就業市場「更可能向招聘方向發展，而不是裁員方向。」
Financial Markets Also Seem to Be More Confident, With Less Uncertainty, an Alignment With a Fed Outlook for a Slower Pace of Interest Rate Cuts in the Coming Year, and an Acceptance That Long-Term Interest Rates "Are Unlikely to Come Down as Much as Some Might Have Hoped," Said Barkin, Who Will Not Be a Voter This Year on Fed Interest Rate Policy.
金融市場似乎也更有信心，減少不確定性，與聯儲局對未來一年緩慢減息步伐的預期一致，並接受長期利率「不太可能像某些人希望的那樣下降，」巴爾金說，他今年不會參與聯儲局的利率政策投票。
The Fed Cut Its Benchmark Policy Rate by a Quarter of a Percentage Point at Its December Meeting, and Lowered the Rate a Full Percentage Point Over Its Final Three Meetings of 2024.
聯儲局在12月的會議上將基準政策利率下調了四分之一個百分點，並在2024年的最後三次會議上將利率降低了一個百分點。
But With Progress on Inflation Stalled and Doubts About How Trade, Tax and Immigration Policy Under Incoming President Donald Trump May Impact the Economy, Policymakers Also Projected the Benchmark Rate Would Fall Only Another Half Point This Year.
但是，由於通貨膨脹進展停滯，以及對於特朗普總統即將實施的貿易、稅收和移民政策可能對經濟產生影響的懷疑，政策制定者預計基準利率今年只會再下降半個百分點。
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
（霍華德·施奈德報道；安德烈亞·裏奇編輯）
((Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 789 8010;))
（（Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com；+1 202 789 8010；））
