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Is Netflix a 'de-risked' stock with massive upside potential? This investor thinks so

Is Netflix a 'de-risked' stock with massive upside potential? This investor thinks so

Netflix是一隻具有巨大上行潛力的“低風險”股票嗎?這位投資者是這麼認為的
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2022/04/22 09:30  · 觀點

A lot of investors dumped $Netflix(NFLX.US)$ stock this week after the company reported a subscriber loss and guided for a continued decline.

很多投資者紛紛拋售$Netflix(NFLX.US)$本週,在該公司報告訂户流失並引導繼續下跌後,該公司股價下跌。

Ritholtz Wealth Management's Josh Brown took the other side of that trade as he sees a lot of upside opportunity in Netflix and not much downside.

Ritholtz財富管理公司喬希·布朗在這筆交易的另一邊,他看到了Netflix的很多上行機會,但沒有太多下行機會。

"I do think that the stock has been very much de-risked," Brown said Thursday on CNBC.

布朗週四在CNBC上表示:“我確實認為,該股的風險已經降低了很多。”

Netflix shares were trading around $700 in November, he noted. Although it probably didn't deserve to be trading that high, he doesn't think it should be trading as low as it is now.

他指出,去年11月,Netflix的股價約為700美元。儘管它可能不值得交易那麼高,但他認為它不應該像現在這樣低交易。

Assessing The Risk: Netflix is trading with roughly the same earnings multiple as $Walt Disney(DIS.US)$, he said: "I'm not suggesting Netflix should have a premium to Disney necessarily, but there are a lot of reasons that you can come up with for why it would and why it has historically."

評估風險:Netflix的市盈率與 $華特迪士尼(DIS.US)$他説:“我並不是説Netflix一定要比迪士尼有溢價,但你可以想出很多理由來解釋為什麼Netflix會有溢價,為什麼它會有這樣的溢價。”

The facts are that the stock is now trading at 20 times earnings with a $100 billion valuation. The company has 230 million subscribers and the next closest competitor (Disney) isn't even half the size in terms of subscriber base, he said.

事實是,該股目前的市盈率為20倍,估值為1000億美元。他説,該公司擁有2.3億訂户,而緊隨其後的競爭對手(迪士尼)的訂户基數甚至不到一半。

The real question is how much risk is one taking buying the stock at current levels, versus the reward that shareholders will receive when things start to go wrong again. Brown doesn't think there is much risk involved in the low $200s, so he bought the stock and noted he has more capital ready to buy below $200 if it gets there and he decides he wants to add.

真正的問題是,與當情況再次出現問題時股東將獲得的回報相比,在當前水平買入股票的人承擔了多大的風險。布朗認為200美元以下的股票不會有太大風險,所以他買入了這隻股票,並指出,如果200美元以下的股票達到200美元以下,他有更多的資金準備買入,他決定增加。

Potential Reward: This isn't the first time Netflix shares have been obliterated. The stock sold off on international expansion uncertainty, concerns over price increases and increased content spending, as well as on increasing competition, Brown said.

潛在回報:這並不是Netflix的股票第一次被抹去。布朗説,由於國際擴張的不確定性,對價格上漲和內容支出增加的擔憂,以及日益激烈的競爭,該股遭到拋售。

Every time the stock has blown up, if you made the bet that they would eventually get things right, as a shareholder you were rewarded not just a little bit, like richly, richly rewarded. The stock went up thousands of percentage points.

-Brown said.

每次股價暴漲,如果你押注他們最終會把事情做好,作為股東,你得到的回報不只是一點點,就像豐厚的回報。該股上漲了數千個百分點。

-布朗説。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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