Deutsche Bank's first look at Li Auto's Q1 earnings
Deutsche Bank's first look at Li Auto's Q1 earnings
$Li Auto(LI.US)$ yesterday reported solid first-quarter revenue of RMB 9.56 billion ($1.51 billion), but guidance for the second quarter was somewhat soft.
$理想汽車-W(LI.US)$昨日公佈的第一季度營收為95.6億元人民幣(合15.1億美元)，表現穩健，但對第二季度的指引有些疲軟。
$Li Auto-W(02015.HK)$ surges over 9% today.
$理想汽車-W-W(02015.HK)$今天漲幅超過9%。
$Deutsche Bank(DB.US)$ analyst Edison Yu's team then provided their first look. Here is what the team sent to investors on Monday:
$德意志銀行(DB.US)$分析師Edison Yu的團隊隨後提供了他們的第一張照片。以下是該團隊週一發給投資者的信息：
Li Auto reported solid 1Q results while 2Q guidance was somewhat soft given uncertainty around the COVID recovery cadence.
理想汽車-W報告了穩健的第一季度業績，而考慮到圍繞新城疫恢復節奏的不確定性，第二季度業績指引略顯疲軟。
Deliveries were previously reported at 31,716 units, leading to revenue of 9.56bn RMB (vs. our 9.60bn forecast and consensus at 9.58bn).
此前公佈的交付數量為31716部，營收為95.6億元人民幣(高於96.6億元人民幣的預期和95.8億元的共識)。
Total gross margin of 22.6% came in above our 21.1% estimate (consensus at 21.3%), boosted by higher vehicle margin of 22.5% vs. our 21.0% forecast. Opex of 2,577m was roughly in-line with our/consensus expectations.
總毛利率為22.6%，高於我們21.1%的預期(普遍預期為21.3%)，這是由於車輛利潤率22.5%高於我們預測的21.0%。運營支出為25.77億歐元，大致符合我們/共識的預期。
All together, adjusted EPS of 0.47 came in materially above our 0.05 estimate due to higher other income and also benefitted from higher stock comp which is added back (nearly 200m higher).
總體而言，由於其他收入增加，調整後每股收益為0.47，大大高於我們的0.05預期，同時也受益於增加的股票薪酬(高出近2億英鎊)。
Free cash flow of 502m was materially stronger than anticipated despite higher capex, likely supported by robust working capital performance.
儘管資本支出較高，但5.02億的自由現金流大幅強於預期，這可能是由強勁的營運資本表現支撐的。
Management provided somewhat soft guidance for 2Q22 calling for 21,000-24,000 deliveries vs. our 23,500 forecast at the midpoint. Management indicated production has continued to improve since early April but the supply chain remains under pressure. Revenue is expected to be 6.62-7.04bn vs. our 7.21bn forecast.
管理層對22季度的交貨量提供了一些軟性指引，預計交貨量為21,000-24,000架，而我們的預測為23,500架。管理層表示，自4月初以來，生產繼續改善，但供應鏈仍面臨壓力。營收預計為66.2億至70.4億，而不是我們預測的72.1億。
For the full year, factoring in the impact of lost production volume from COVID, gross margin should still be at least flat YoY or better. R&D is targeted to be around 7bn RMB and SG&A as % of sales ought to be similar to 2021.
就全年而言，考慮到COVID產量損失的影響，毛利率至少應該與去年持平或更好。研發的目標是大約70億元人民幣，SG&A佔銷售額的比例應該與2021年相似。
The upcoming new L9 EREV full-size SUV should be unveiled toward end of this month of early June depending on COVID situation. Deliveries are still expected to occur in 3Q.
即將推出的新L9 EREV全尺寸SUV應該會在這個月的6月初推出，具體取決於COVID的情況。交付預計仍將在第三季度完成。