Don’t Buy Nvidia Until the Downtrend Turns
Don’t Buy Nvidia Until the Downtrend Turns
InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
InvestorPlace-股票市場新聞、股票建議和交易提示
- On Monday, Nvidia (NVDA) fell to a new low for 2022 as panic seized the stock market.
- Despite a secular growth story, semiconductors remain out of favor as bears roam the land.
- Recession fears are overshadowing the solid fundamentals of NVDA stock. Don't buy it until the trend changes.
- 週一，英維迪亞 (NVDA)跌至2022年的新低，股市陷入恐慌。
- 儘管有長期的增長故事，但由於熊在這片土地上漫步，半導體仍然不受歡迎。
- 對經濟衰退的擔憂使NVDA股票的穩健基本面黯然失色。在趨勢改變之前，不要買它。
We're in a baby-and-bathwater market, where seemingly good companies with solid growth numbers are seeing their share prices swoon. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is a prime example of this. With Monday's market massacre, NVDA stock is officially 50% off its 52-week high.
我們正處於一個嬰兒和洗澡水市場，在這個市場上，看似不錯的公司擁有穩健的增長數據，但它們的股價卻在暴跌。英維迪亞納斯達克(Youku：NVDA)就是一個很好的例子。隨着週一的市場大跌，NVDA的股票正式較52周高點下跌了50%。
The halving hasn't come as a result of poor management or a mass deterioration in the company's fundamentals. On the contrary, its February earnings report revealed a 53% revenue increase year-over-year (YOY), among other rosy metrics and upbeat forward guidance. Instead, Nvidia's woes are born from a broader shift in investor sentiment as high inflation and soaring interest rates have investors re-thinking stock market valuations.
這種減半並不是由於管理不善或公司基本面的大規模惡化造成的。相反，其2月份的收益報告顯示，營收同比增長53%，以及其他樂觀的指標和樂觀的前瞻性指引。相反，NVIDIA的困境源於投資者情緒的更廣泛轉變，因為高通脹和飆升的利率促使投資者重新考慮股市估值。
In short, investors have looked into the not too distant future and seen a hawkish Fed solving inflation by pushing the economy into a recession. Were that to happen, Nvidia's growth path would slow and demand a lower share price. Of course, as equities are wont to do, they aren't waiting around for the earnings decline to arrive before reacting. True to their discounting and forward-looking nature, stocks are sliding now.
簡而言之，投資者已經展望了不太遙遠的未來，看到了鷹派美聯儲通過將經濟推入衰退來解決通脹問題。如果發生這種情況，英偉達的增長道路將放緩，並要求更低的股價。當然，就像股市慣常做的那樣，它們不會等到盈利下滑到來後才做出反應。與折扣性和前瞻性不謀而合的是，股市現在正在下滑。
Is Nvidia Stock Now Cheap?
NVIDIA的股票現在便宜嗎？
The halving in NVDA stock has transpired while its earnings per share have continued marching higher. As a result, the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) has shrunk considerably.
NVDA股價減半的同時，其每股收益繼續走高。因此，市盈率(P/E)大幅縮水。
- 7 Great Growth Stocks to Buy in May
- 5月份買入的7只大成長股
At its richest point, Nvidia's P/E ratio topped 100. Now, it's in the mid-40s. Fans will point to the steep discount as a reason to gobble up shares now while the flames of the fire sale are burning bright.
在最富有的時候，NVIDIA的市盈率超過了100倍。現在，它是45歲左右。粉絲們會指出，在賤賣的火焰正熊熊燃燒之際，大幅折扣是現在大舉買入股票的理由。
On the one hand, they may be right. As economist Paul Samuelson joked, the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions. Sometimes stocks see a bogeyman that simply isn't there. Perhaps the pendulum of pessimism has swung too far. There's a chance the Federal Reserve won't over-tighten, will successfully get inflation under control, and will deliver the much-desired but all-too-rare soft landing.
一方面，他們可能是對的。正如經濟學家保羅·薩繆爾森(Paul Samuelson)開玩笑説的那樣，股市預測到了過去五次衰退中的九次。有時，股市會看到一個根本不存在的妖怪。或許悲觀的鐘擺擺得太遠了。美聯儲有可能不會過度收緊貨幣政策，成功地控制住通脹，並實現人們夢寐以求的、但非常罕見的軟着陸。
In that case, Nvidia is indeed a rousing buy here — as are most stocks, for that matter. Only time will tell. As for pinning your hopes on Nvidia's seemingly cheap valuation, remember it can get far cheaper before all is said and done.
在這種情況下，NVIDIA確實是一筆令人振奮的收購--就這一點而言，大多數股票也是如此。只有時間能證明。至於把希望寄託在NVIDIA看似便宜的估值上，請記住，在一切都説完和做完之前，它可能會變得更便宜。
That illustrates one of the critical problems with using a valuation metric to time your purchases. It's unwieldy and lacks precision. No doubt some investors scooped up NVDA stock when the P/E ratio sank from 100 to 70 or 60, reasoning it was "cheap enough." If you are interested in bottom fishing here, then let technical analysis be your guide. In the case of Nvidia, it simplifies the story considerably.
這説明瞭使用估值指標來計算購買時間的關鍵問題之一。它既笨重又缺乏精確度。毫無疑問，當市盈率從100跌至70或60倍時，一些投資者買入了NVDA的股票，理由是NVDA的股價“足夠便宜”。如果你對這裏的底層捕撈感興趣，那麼讓技術分析成為你的指南。在NVIDIA的案例中，它大大簡化了故事。
Let the NVDA Stock Chart Be Your Guide
讓NVDA股票圖表成為你的指南
If you want to buy shares with greater conviction, wait for evidence that the downtrend is turning. The weekly trend is below the 20-week and 50-week moving averages. The daily is following suit with prices below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.
如果你想以更堅定的信念買入股票，那就等待下跌趨勢正在逆轉的證據。周線走勢低於20周和50周移動均線。日報網緊隨其後，價格跌破20日、50日和200日移動均線。
Given the multitude of broken support zones overhead, ample resistance threatens to halt future rallies. Breaking one of them will at least signal a short-term change in character. For now, I have my eye on $204.
鑑於頭頂上有大量支撐區被打破，充足的阻力可能會阻止未來的反彈。打破其中一個至少會標誌着短期內性格的改變。目前，我的目標是204美元。
The old pivot high needs to be breached before the daily trend turns higher. Beyond that, a push above the 50-day moving average would signal a more significant reversal is in place. Until then, patience is warranted. And if you must acquire Nvidia, do yourself a favor and at least buy partial shares so you can add more at lower prices in the likely event the downtrend persists.
在日線走勢變得更高之前，舊的支點高點需要被突破。除此之外，突破50日移動均線將標誌着更重大的逆轉已經到位。在此之前，耐心是必要的。如果你必須收購NVIDIA，幫自己一個忙，至少購買部分股份，這樣你就可以在下跌趨勢持續的情況下以更低的價格增加更多股份。
On the date of publication, Tyler Craig did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
在本文發表之日，泰勒·克雷格並未(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點是作者的觀點，受InvestorPlace.com發佈指南的約束。
The post Don't Buy Nvidia Until the Downtrend Turns appeared first on InvestorPlace.
在下跌趨勢扭轉之前，不要購買英偉達的帖子首先出現在InvestorPlace上。