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Li Auto Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LI) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 83% Above Its Share Price

Li Auto Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LI) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 83% Above Its Share Price

理想汽車-W公司(納斯達克代碼:LI)的內在價值可能比其股價高出83%
Simply Wall St ·  2022/05/17 09:32

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:LI) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

今天我們將通過一種方法來估計理想汽車-W公司(納斯達克代碼:LI)的內在價值,方法是將預期的未來現金流折現為其現值。在這種情況下,我們將使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。這聽起來可能很複雜,但實際上很簡單!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

我們通常認為,一家公司的價值是它未來將產生的所有現金的現值。然而,貼現現金流只是眾多估值指標中的一個,它也並非沒有缺陷。任何有興趣瞭解更多內在價值的人,都應該閲讀一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。

View our latest analysis for Li Auto

查看我們對理想汽車-W的最新分析

The method

方法

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,也就是説,公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長率。一般來説,第一階段是較高增長階段,第二階段是較低增長階段。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

一般來説,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,所以這些未來現金流的總和就會貼現到今天的價值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10年自由現金流(FCF)預測

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) -CN¥1.46b CN¥3.88b CN¥15.4b CN¥19.9b CN¥23.3b CN¥26.2b CN¥28.7b CN¥30.7b CN¥32.4b CN¥33.9b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 17.02% Est @ 12.49% Est @ 9.32% Est @ 7.1% Est @ 5.54% Est @ 4.46%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 10.0% -CN¥1.3k CN¥3.2k CN¥11.6k CN¥13.6k CN¥14.5k CN¥14.8k CN¥14.7k CN¥14.4k CN¥13.8k CN¥13.1k
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) -CN人民幣14.6億元 CN元38.8億元 淨額154億元 CN人民幣199億元 淨額233億元 CN元262億元 淨額287億元 CN元307億元 淨額324億元 淨資產339億元
增長率預估來源 分析師x3 分析師x3 分析師x2 分析師x1 Est@17.02% Est@12.49% Est@9.32% EST@7.1% Est@5.54% Est@4.46%
現值(CN元,百萬)貼現@10.0% -CN元13萬元 CN元3.2K CN元11.6K CN元13.6K CN元14.5K CN元14.8K CN元14.7K CN元14.4K CN元13.8K CN元13.1K

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥112b

(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元112億元

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 10.0%.

第二階段也被稱為終端價值,這是企業在第一階段之後的現金流。出於一些原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的國內生產總值增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值(1.9%)來估計未來的增長。與10年“增長”期一樣,我們使用10.0%的權益成本,將未來現金流貼現到今天的價值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥34b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (10.0%– 1.9%) = CN¥428b

終端值(TV)=FCF2031×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元34b×(1+1.9%)?(10.0%-1.9%)=CN元428b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥428b÷ ( 1 + 10.0%)10= CN¥166b

終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元4280億?(1+10.0%)10=CN元1660億元

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥278b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$22.0, the company appears quite undervalued at a 45% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股權價值,在本例中為2780億加元。為了得到每股內在價值,我們將其除以總流通股數量。相對於目前22.0美元的股價,該公司的估值似乎比目前的股價有45%的折讓。不過,請記住,這只是一個大致的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣--垃圾輸入,垃圾輸出。

NasdaqGS:LI Discounted Cash Flow May 17th 2022
納斯達克:李嘉誠貼現現金流2022年5月17日

The assumptions

假設

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Li Auto as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.631. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

上述計算在很大程度上取決於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,你可以自己試一試計算,並玩弄一下假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將理想汽車-W視為潛在股東,我們使用股權成本作為貼現率,而不是考慮債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了10.0%,這是基於槓桿率為1.631的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。

Next Steps:

接下來的步驟:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Li Auto, we've compiled three essential elements you should further examine:

儘管一家公司的估值很重要,但理想情況下,它不會是你為一家公司仔細審查的唯一一項分析。用貼現現金流模型不可能獲得萬無一失的估值。相反,它應該被視為“什麼假設需要成立才能讓這隻股票被低估或高估”的指南。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者如果其股本成本或無風險利率大幅變化,產出可能看起來非常不同。股價低於內在價值的原因是什麼?對於理想汽車-W,我們整理了三個你應該進一步研究的基本要素:

  1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for Li Auto we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
  2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for LI's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  1. 風險:我們認為您應該評估理想汽車-W的3個警示標誌在投資這家公司之前,我們已經做了標記。
  2. 管理問:內部人士是否一直在增持股票,以利用市場對李嘉誠未來前景的情緒?查看我們的管理層和董事會分析,瞭解對CEO薪酬和治理因素的見解。
  3. 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS.Simply Wall St.應用程序每天對納斯達克指數的每一隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需搜索此處。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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