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Why GameStop Stock Is Not Unsinkable

Why GameStop Stock Is Not Unsinkable

為什麼GameStop股票不是不沉的
InvestorPlace ·  2022/06/18 06:21

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Inflation, interest rates and recession risk have knocked stocks lower again. Alongside stocks, the crypto and non-fungible token (NFT) markets have cratered, too. Yet this latest market meltdown has only had a moderate impact on $GameStop(GME.US)$ stock. What gives?

通脹、利率和衰退風險再次壓低了股市。除了股市,加密和不可替代代幣(NFT)市場也出現了崩盤。然而,最近的這場市場崩盤只對$GameStop(GME.US)$股票。什麼給予?

The long side has seemingly regained the upper hand. They bid up the stock post-earnings, despite mixed results. This has squeezed the crowded short-side. As a result, the meme stock king, while knocked lower a bit by the June 13 and June 16 broad market sell-offs, has held onto most of its May relief rally gains.

做多的一方似乎重新佔據了上風。儘管業績喜憂參半,但他們在盈利後抬高了股價。這擠壓了擁擠的空頭。因此,儘管受到6月13日和6月16日大盤拋售的影響,米姆股票之王的股價略有下跌,但它保持了5月份的大部分釋然性反彈漲幅。

Ticker Company Price GME GameStop $134.34

代碼機 公司 價格GME遊戲停止134.34美元

With this, you may think shares in the video game retailer are unsinkable. Although not anywhere near their meme stock highs, it could appear that it's at little risk of falling to a price more in line with its underlying value. However, you may not want to jump to that conclusion.

有了這一點,你可能會認為這家視頻遊戲零售商的股票是不會下沉的。雖然沒有接近表情包股票的高點,但看起來它幾乎沒有風險跌到更符合其潛在價值的價格。然而,你可能不想一下子得出這個結論。

GME Stock and its Oddly Resilient Recent Performance

GME股票及其令人奇怪的彈性近期表現

Briefly falling down to double-digit prices during the May market selloff, since then GameStop has climbed back to prices north of $100 per share. It made its trek back to triple digits in late May, during that month's relief rally.

在5月份的市場拋售期間,GameStop的價格曾短暫跌至兩位數,自那以來,GameStop的價格已回升至每股100美元以上。在5月底的救市反彈期間,該指數重回三位數。

Then, after its June 1 quarterly earnings release, GME stock rallied again. Again, this came despite what were arguably mixed results. Revenue for its fiscal first quarter (ending April 30), were up modestly (up 7.9% year-over-year), but its net loss more than doubled compared to the prior year's quarter.

然後,在6月1日發佈季度收益後,GME股價再次上漲。再一次,儘管可以説結果喜憂參半,但這一結果還是出現了。該公司第一財季(截至4月30日)的營收小幅增長(同比增長7.9%),但淨虧損比上一財季增加了一倍多。

The company also loaded up heavily on inventory during the quarter. This could be a risky move at this stage of the economic cycle. If the economy continues to slow down, or perhaps officially enters recession territory, decreased customer demand could leave the video game retailer in the same boat as general retailers like Target (NYSE:TGT).

該公司在本季度還大量增加了庫存。在經濟週期的這個階段,這可能是一個有風險的舉動。如果經濟繼續放緩,或者正式進入衰退區域,客户需求的下降可能會讓這家視頻遊戲零售商與塔吉特(NYSE:TGT)等普通零售商處於同一條船上。

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Still, this didn't stop the longs, whether they be retail meme traders, or perhaps more sophisticated market participants, from pouncing on it post-earnings. While the aforementioned big down days for stocks softened the blow for the shorts, GameStop shares are still up from where they were before the earnings report.

儘管如此,這並沒有阻止多頭投資者,無論是散户模因交易者,還是更老練的市場參與者,在盈利後對其進行猛烈抨擊。雖然前面提到的股市大跌緩解了做空的打擊,但GameStop的股價仍高於財報公佈前的水平。

Why This Resiliency May Not Last

為什麼這種彈性可能不會持久

Based on its recent price performance, GME stock may seem immune from what bears (such as myself) believe is a much-needed de-rating. That is, as long as the long side continues to counter the short-side, the fact it trades for well-above its underlying value is irrelevant.

根據最近的價格表現,GME股票似乎不會受到看跌人士(比如我自己)認為亟需降級的影響。也就是説,只要多頭繼續對抗空頭,它的交易價格遠高於其潛在價值這一事實就無關緊要了。

Still, it may be premature to assume that this unconventional bull case for the stock is re-emerging. The days of it trading divorced from fundamentals may remain numbered. How so? Excitement from the long side could cool down, in two ways.

儘管如此,現在就認為該股的這種非常規牛市正在重新出現,可能還為時過早。脱離基本面的IT交易的日子可能仍然屈指可數。怎麼會這樣?多頭的興奮情緒可能會以兩種方式降温。

First, some traders who dived into GME stock again as a squeeze play could decide to take profit. The fact that the recently overzealous short-side has backed off, as seen from the drop in short borrow rates after their early June spike, could also affect its squeeze appeal.

首先,一些再次大舉買入GME股票的交易員可能會決定獲利。從短期借款利率在6月初飆升後的下降可以看出,最近過於熱心的空方已經後退,這一事實也可能影響其擠壓吸引力。

Second, traders could have also piled into the stock ahead of its planned stock split. Shareholders approved the split at the June 2 shareholder meeting. Enthusiasm for this catalyst may peak, assuming management officially announces a split date. This latest round of "meme stock madness" for GameStop could fade. In turn, resulting in shares resuming their slide lower, as fundamentals come back into focus.

其次,交易員也可以在計劃中的股票拆分之前大舉買入該股。股東們在6月2日的股東大會上批准了拆分。如果管理層正式宣佈分拆日期,對這一催化劑的熱情可能會達到頂峯。最新一輪對GameStop的“表情包狂熱”可能會消退。反過來,隨着基本面重新成為關注的焦點,股價恢復下跌。

Bottom Line: Be Careful Chasing GameStop

一句話:追逐GameStop要小心

Admittedly, ahead of earnings, I made the wrong call on GameStop. Instead of a lackluster earnings report pushing it lower, shares are up in spite of poor operating performance. Yet while this may underscore the risk of shorting this stock, going long is a risky move too.

誠然,在盈利之前,我在GameStop上做出了錯誤的預測。儘管經營業績不佳,但股價並未因低迷的盈利報告而走低,反而上漲了。然而,儘管這可能突顯了做空這隻股票的風險,但做多也是一種冒險之舉。

Excitement about it could again turn on a dime. Perhaps pretty soon, if its squeeze and split appeal fades. Not only that, it's still hard to see the upside. That is, beyond the questionable chances of the "mother of all short-squeezes," playing out.

對它的興奮可能會再次變得一錢不值。也許很快,如果它的擠壓和分裂吸引力消退的話。不僅如此,它仍然很難看到上行的一面。也就是説,超出了“所有做空之母”發揮出來的可疑可能性。

Its transition into primarily an e-commerce company appears fully priced-in. By the time its NFT marketplace and wallet service launch, NFTs could have by then gone the way of the pet rock.

它轉型為一家主要的電子商務公司似乎完全考慮到了這一點。到其NFT市場和錢包服務推出時,NFT可能已經像寵物巖石一樣消失了。

With many stocks now on sale, focusing on long-term opportunities appears more ideal than rolling the dice on GME stock. Be careful if you choose to do so.

由於許多股票現在都在出售,關注長期機會似乎比在GME股票上擲骰子更理想。如果你選擇這樣做,一定要小心。

On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版之日,託馬斯·尼爾沒有(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點是作者的觀點,受InvestorPlace.com發佈指南的約束。

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