UBS reduces ASX 200 year-end forecast on earnings downgrade cycle
UBS reduces ASX 200 year-end forecast on earnings downgrade cycle
Analysts at UBS have lowered their year-end $S&P/ASX 200(.XJO.AU)$ market target from 7700 to 7000 anticipating earnings are on a course to follow equity prices lower.
瑞銀分析師下調了他們的年終預期$S&P/ASX 200(.XJO.AU)$市場目標從7700到7000期待隨着股價走低，收益將走上正軌.
They now assume cuts to earning estimates through to early next year.
他們現在假設在明年初之前下調盈利預期。
The reduction implies a 5 per cent return from today's price of around 6740 and a 6 per cent drop for the calendar year.
這一降價意味着從目前6740左右的價格中獲得5%的回報，並在本歷年下降6%。
Top-down, markets have already largely adjusted to a more downbeat macro story: stocks have de-rated, in some cases considerably, whilst bonds now seem to be near their ceiling,
-UBS strategist Richard Schellbach said.
自上而下，市場在很大程度上已經適應了更為悲觀的宏觀故事：股票評級下降，在某些情況下降級幅度很大，而債券現在似乎接近天花板。
-瑞銀策略師理查德·謝爾巴赫表示。
But with the baton now being passed onto earnings downgrades, equity prices will be forced to fight against a more negative bottom-up story.
但隨着接力棒現在被傳遞到盈利下調上，股價將被迫與更負面的自下而上故事作鬥爭。
Analysts remain overweight on resource and consumer staple stocks. They've switched consumer discretionary to underweight given they "are not inclined to fight what looks like a vicious earnings downgrade cycle hitting the sector.
分析師仍增持資源和消費品類股。他們已將非必需消費品轉為減持，因為他們“不傾向於對抗看起來像是打擊該行業的惡性收益下調週期。”