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7 Stocks to Sell in a Bear Market

7 Stocks to Sell in a Bear Market

7 在熊市中出售股票
InvestorPlace ·  2022/07/05 18:07

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There comes a point when investors need to recognize the realities of the equities sector, which is the central theme undergirding the below stocks to sell in a bear market. It's not about hating on particular companies. Indeed, many of these players offer intriguing business models. Unfortunately, the ground underneath us has changed, necessitating a shift in strategies.

總有一天,投資者需要認識到股票行業的現實,這是支撐以下股票在熊市中出售的中心主題。這不是關於對特定公司的憎恨。事實上,這些參與者中的許多人提供了耐人尋味的商業模式。不幸的是,我們的根基已經改變,需要改變戰略。

Most notably, the impact of inflation has rippled throughout the entire economy. As the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar erodes rapidly, consumers have little choice but to hunker down as best as possible. For many households, this means reducing discretionary purchases to a minimum, while perhaps buying up essential, non-perishable products. Under this context, some equities will flourish and some will become stocks to sell.

最值得注意的是,通脹的影響已經波及整個經濟。由於美元的購買力迅速下降,消費者別無選擇,只能儘可能地低調行事。對於許多家庭來説,這意味着將可自由支配的購買量減少到最低限度,同時可能會購買基本的、不容易腐爛的產品。在這種背景下,一些股票將蓬勃發展,一些股票將成為可出售的股票。

Further, the erosion of purchasing power means that consumer sentiment is down in the dumps. In turn, fewer people will spend money unnecessarily, forcing several companies to cut their workforce. Such actions end up materializing a vicious cycle, which is another reason why folks need to get serious about stocks to sell in a bear market.

此外,購買力的下降意味着消費者情緒低落。反過來,更少的人會不必要地花錢,迫使幾家公司裁員。這樣的行為最終會形成惡性循環,這是人們需要認真對待股票才能在熊市中拋售的另一個原因。

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Here are seven stocks to sell in a bear market:

以下是在熊市中可以拋售的七隻股票:

Ticker
代碼機
Company
公司
Price
價格
RDFN
RDFN
Redfin Corporation $9.18
Redfin公司9.18美元
KBH
KBH
KB Home $29.76
KB Home$29.76
OPEN
打開
Opendoor Technologies Inc. $5.20
OpenDoor Technologies Inc.5.20美元
LAZR
LAZR
Luminar Technologies, Inc. $5.93
魯米納科技公司,5.93美元
RH
Rh
RH $224.23
224.23盧比
SIG
簽名
Signet Jewelers Limited $51.95
Signet珠寶商有限公司51.95美元
DDS
DDS
Dillard's Inc. $206.05
迪拉德公司,206.05美元

Stocks to Sell: Redfin (RDFN)

待售股票:Redfin(RDFN)

Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com
來源:sundry Phototics/Shutterstock.com

One of the most controversial subjects, the soaring housing market of the post-coronavirus period perfectly illustrated the difference between the haves and have-nots. On one end of the spectrum, homeowners were ecstatic at the sudden boost in equity. Of course, on the other end, an increasing number of prospective homebuyers were simply priced out of the market.

作為最具爭議性的話題之一,后冠狀病毒時期飆升的房地產市場完美地説明瞭富人和窮人之間的區別。在光譜的一端,房主們對資產價格的突然上漲欣喜若狂。當然,另一方面,越來越多的潛在購房者只是因為房價過高而被趕出了市場。

Now, with the Federal Reserve appearing committed to tackling inflation, an environment of rising interest rates doesn't augur well for Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN), a full-service real estate brokerage. It's interesting that throughout much of the new normal, Redfin executives were talking up a good game about robust housing demand. But oops, what did management do recently? Did someone say layoffs?

現在,隨着美聯儲似乎致力於應對通脹,利率上升的環境對紅鰭納斯達克(Sequoia Capital:RDFN),提供全方位服務的房地產經紀公司。有趣的是,在新常態的大部分時間裏,Redfin的高管都在談論強勁的住房需求。但是,糟糕的是,管理層最近做了什麼?是不是有人説要裁員?

I've gotten some criticism regarding the idea of choosing a company like Redfin as one of the stocks to sell in a bear market. Here's the reality: if housing-related businesses truly felt confident about the underlying sector, they wouldn't be handing pink slips to their employees.

關於選擇像Redfin這樣的公司作為熊市拋售股票之一的想法,我受到了一些批評。現實是這樣的:如果房地產相關企業真的對基礎行業有信心,他們就不會給員工發解僱通知單。

Take advantage of any near-term pops in RDFN. Overall, I'm staying out of this one.

利用RDFN的任何近期流行趨勢。總體而言,我不會插手這件事。

KB Home (KBH)

KB Home(KBH)

Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock
資料來源:雜項攝影/快門

If you listened to the mainstream media throughout the new normal, you might be tempted to think KB Home (NYSE:KBH), a homebuilding company, is one of the publicly traded securities to bank on. After all, how many times have we heard about the shortage of homes? With so much demand out there, KBH should be an easy winner.

如果你在整個新常態中都在聽主流媒體的講話,你可能會忍不住想KB主頁(紐約證券交易所代碼:KBH)是一家住宅建築公司,是值得信賴的公開交易證券之一。畢竟,我們多少次聽到過住房短缺的消息?在市場需求如此之大的情況下,KBH應該很容易成為贏家。

Except for one problem: there's a lot of "want" out there, not demand. Let's just assume that homebuilders — companies that have been in this business for decades — aren't stupid. If such a massive demand base existed, why wouldn't they max out their capacities?

除了一個問題:市場上有很多“想要”的東西,而不是需求。讓我們假設住房建築商--從事這一行業數十年的公司--並不愚蠢。如果存在如此龐大的需求基礎,他們為什麼不最大限度地發揮產能呢?

Aside from supply chain disruptions, the fundamental headwind is the wealth gap. When you consider the share of total net worth of the middle class versus the same metric for the top 1% of wealth holders, you'll notice that regular everyday folks are disastrously losing ground.

除了供應鏈中斷,根本的逆風是貧富差距。當你考慮中產階級總淨資產的份額與最富有的1%財富持有者的相同指標時,你會注意到,普通民眾正在災難性地失去陣地。

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In other words, KB Home does not have enough clients to sell to because most wealth is now concentrated in the fewest hands. Thus, KBH is relevant, but not at its current premium.

換句話説,KB Home沒有足夠的客户可以銷售,因為大多數財富現在集中在最少數人手中。因此,KBH是相關的,但不是以目前的溢價。

Stocks to Sell: Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)

待售股票:OpenDoor Technologies(Open)

Source: Tada Images / Shutterstock.com
來源:Tada Images/Shutterstock.com

Yes, I'm picking on real-estate-related companies because that's what I'm most bearish on at the moment. Even companies that supposedly deliver innovation to an age-old sector, like Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ:OPEN), are suspect.

是的,我挑的是房地產相關公司,因為這是我目前最看空的。即使是那些理應向一個歷史悠久的行業提供創新的公司,比如OpenDoor技術(納斯達克:開放),都是可疑的。

Opendoor specializes in iBuying, essentially leveraging digitalization protocols to add greater efficiency and convenience to real estate transactions. On paper, Opendoor sounds like the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of home buying. Personally, I see it as the Sears (OTCMKTS:SHLDQ) of home buying.

OpenDoor專門從事iBuying,本質上是利用數字化協議來提高房地產交易的效率和便利性。從理論上講,OpenDoor聽起來像是亞馬遜(納斯達克:AMZN)的購房。就我個人而言,我認為這是西爾斯(OTCMKTS:SHLDQ)購房。

Apparently, most people will own three homes in their lifetime, which I think is an elevated number. Nevertheless, three is a very small transactional number to impart conveniences on. And remember, imparting conveniences on inherently inconvenient matters costs money.

顯然,大多數人在有生之年會擁有三套房子,我認為這是一個很高的數字。儘管如此,3是一個非常小的交易量數字,可以提供便利。記住,在本質上不方便的事情上提供便利是要花錢的。

Besides, since real estate is the most important purchase most families will make, rational buyers will eschew speed and convenience for better ensuring the right deal. That's why I believe OPEN is one of the stocks to sell. The business model might not make sense and certainly, the economic environment is bearish for real estate.

此外,由於房地產是大多數家庭最重要的購買,理性的買家會避開速度和便利,以更好地確保正確的交易。這就是為什麼我認為Open是值得出售的股票之一。這種商業模式可能沒有意義,當然,經濟環境對房地產來説是悲觀的。

Luminar Technologies (LAZR)

發光體技術公司(LAZR)

Source: JHVEPhoto/shutterstock.com
來源:JHVEPhoto/Shuterstock.com

Luminar Technologies (NASDAQ:LAZR) was one of the top performers of the new normal. Specializing in lidar systems that will hopefully pave the way for fully autonomous vehicles, LAZR enjoyed a blistering debut following its reverse merger with a special purpose acquisition company.

魯米納技術公司納斯達克(Sequoia Capital:LAZR)是新常態中表現最好的公司之一。LAZR專注於激光雷達系統,有望為全自動駕駛汽車鋪平道路。在與一家特殊目的收購公司進行反向合併後,LAZR首次亮相時表現出色。

When the closing bell rang out on the Jun. 24 session, LAZR stock had lost 2.2%. For the year, it hemorrhaged over 58%. To be clear, Luminar is one of the most compelling leaders in the lidar space. It's just that in this economic ecosystem, it might not matter.

6月24日收盤鐘聲響起時,LAZR的股價已經下跌了2.2%。在這一年裏,它的出血量超過了58%。需要明確的是,勒馬爾是激光雷達領域最引人注目的領導者之一。只是在這個經濟生態系統中,這可能無關緊要。

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For instance, quite a few people are still working from home, although that might change. Even so, those who are given an ultimatum by their employers could end up joining the gig economy. Additionally, companies can design their inhouse automated systems as underlying technologies decline in cost. Therefore, competitive pressures could stymie Luminar.

例如,相當多的人仍然在家工作,儘管這種情況可能會改變。即便如此,那些被僱主下了最後通牒的人最終可能會加入零工經濟。此外,隨着基礎技術成本的下降,公司可以設計自己的內部自動化系統。因此,競爭壓力可能會阻礙盧米納的發展。

Stocks to Sell: RH (RH)

待售股票:RH(RH)

Source: CLS Digital Arts / Shutterstock
來源:CLS Digital Art/Shutterstock

While the above stocks to sell might ruffle feathers if stakeholders are attached to these names, arguably, I should encounter little resistance with RH (NYSE:RH). Formerly known as Restoration Hardware, RH specializes in upscale home-furnishing products. Throughout much of the new normal, RH flourished as consumers who bought into the housing frenzy also spent big on quality furnishings.

雖然上述要出售的股票可能會激怒利益相關者,但可以説,我應該不會遇到什麼阻力Rh(紐約證券交易所代碼:RH)。RH前身為Restory Hardware,專門生產高檔家居產品。在新常態的大部分時間裏,RH蓬勃發展,因為購買了住房狂潮的消費者也在高質量的傢俱上花費了大量資金。

Looking back at the circumstances, however, RH was giving off an early warning signal in August of last year. Shares hit an all-time closing high and from there, a gradual erosion followed by a steep decline throughout the early days of 2022. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, RH stock has dropped by 50%, although there's evidence that the magnitude of selling is easing.

然而,回顧當時的情況,RH在去年8月發出了早期預警信號。股價創下歷史收盤新高,從那時起,股價逐漸下跌,隨後在2022年初大幅下跌。今年到目前為止,RH的股票已經下跌了50%,儘管有證據表明拋售的幅度正在放緩。

Does this mean there's a chance RH could make a comeback? Although anything is possible, if folks can't afford their furniture for their new homes, it suggests deeper underlying economic challenges. Also, without stimulus checks to bolster household budgets combined with a lack of homebuyers, RH stock seems questionable.

這是否意味着RH有可能捲土重來?儘管一切皆有可能,但如果人們買不起新家的傢俱,這意味着更深層次的潛在經濟挑戰。此外,在沒有刺激措施來支撐家庭預算的情況下,再加上購房者的缺乏,RH的存量似乎有問題。

Signet Jewelers (SIG)

Signet珠寶商(SIG)

Source: rafapress / Shutterstock
來源:rafapress/Shutterstock

Perhaps most of you will recognize Signet Jewelers (NYSE:SIG) as an obvious candidate for stocks to sell in a bear market. The common image of an economic downturn is that of desperate folks selling anything of value to pawn shops. Under this context, households are not going to spend big on jewelry, which is the ultimate consumer discretionary item.

也許你們大多數人都會認出Signet珠寶商(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:SIG)被認為是在熊市中拋售股票的明顯候選者。經濟低迷的常見形象是絕望的人們向典當行出售任何有價值的東西。在這種背景下,家庭不會在珠寶上花大價錢,因為珠寶是最終的消費者可自由支配的物品。

However, an even darker reason exists to explain why SIG may be one of the top stocks to sell in a bear market. Research from Bowling Green State University indicates that "Economic conditions are linked to marriage patterns—increases in the unemployment rate are associated with reduced odds of marriage."

然而,還有一個更黑暗的理由來解釋為什麼SIG可能是熊市中最值得出售的股票之一。鮑林格林州立大學的研究表明,“經濟狀況與婚姻模式有關--失業率的上升與結婚機率的降低有關。”

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If you have reduced odds of marriage if the economy enters a recession, you're logically going to see reductions of revenue at Signet Jewelers and its ilk. Otherwise, I don't have anything against Signet. It's just that investors should recognize the harsh realities of our present circumstances.

如果你在經濟進入衰退時結婚的機率降低了,那麼從邏輯上講,你會看到Signet珠寶商及其同類公司的收入減少。否則,我對西格尼特沒有任何意見。只是投資者應該認識到我們目前處境的嚴酷現實。

Stocks to Sell: Dillard's (DDS)

待售股票:Dillard‘s(DDS)

Source: JHVEPhoto/ShutterStock.com
來源:JHVEPhoto/Shuterstock.com

An upscale department store chain, Dillard's (NYSE:DDS) was a shocker of an investment this year. While its peers like Macy's (NYSE:M) suffered significant losses, Dillard's enjoyed relative success. After some choppy sessions, DDS stock is up nearly 4% YTD, which is not bad considering the major indices are down double digits over the same period. Still, I think luck will run out for Dillard's.

一家高檔百貨商店連鎖店,Dillard‘s(紐約證券交易所代碼:DDS)是今年令人震驚的一筆投資。而它的同行們則喜歡梅西百貨(紐約證券交易所:M)遭受重大損失,而Dillard‘s則相對成功。在經歷了幾個震盪的交易日後,DDS的股價今年以來上漲了近4%,考慮到同期主要股指下跌了兩位數,這一漲幅還不錯。儘管如此,我認為迪拉德的運氣將會耗盡。

Again, like many of the other stocks to sell in a bear market, I don't have anything against the company. It's just that we need to recognize broader realities. As the Wall Street Journal and other publications pointed out, consumer sentiment is at a record low. A few positive blips here and there aren't going to change the overall narrative.

再説一次,像其他許多在熊市中拋售的股票一樣,我對這家公司沒有任何不滿。只是我們需要認識到更廣泛的現實。作為《華爾街日報》等出版物指出,消費者信心處於創紀錄低點。這裏和那裏的一些積極的信號都不會改變整個故事。

Essentially, you have the double whammy of the dollar losing its purchasing power and employers — particularly in the high-paying tech space — laying off their workers. To me, it's almost inevitable that demand for consumer discretionary items will fall, boding poorly for DDS stock.

從本質上説,這是美元失去購買力和僱主--尤其是在高薪科技領域--裁員的雙重打擊。在我看來,消費者對非必需消費品的需求幾乎不可避免地會下降,這對DDS的庫存來説是個壞兆頭。

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版日期,喬什·恩諾本沒有(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文表達的觀點是作者的觀點,以InvestorPlace.com為準出版指南.

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