CBA makes shocking 2.35% interest rate call: ‘Very significant’
CBA makes shocking 2.35% interest rate call: ‘Very significant’
"We have revised our central scenario for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We had previously expected the RBA to take the cash rate to 2.10 per cent by November," Aird said.The $CommBank(CBA.AU)$ has revised its interest rate predictions, now expecting a 0.5 per cent hike in both August and September.
這個$CommBank(CBA.AU)$修正了利率預測，目前預計8月和9月都將加息0.5%。
CBA said it then expects a 0.25 per cent hike in November, which would take the official interest rate to 2.6 per cent by the end of the year.
CBA隨後表示，預計11月份將加息0.25%，這將使官方利率在年底前升至2.6%。
CBA head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said the bank is then expecting rates to remain steady through the first half of next year, followed by a 0.5 per cent cut in the second half.
CBA澳大利亞經濟主管Gareth Aird表示，該行預計明年上半年利率將保持穩定，下半年將降息0.5%。
"We have revised our central scenario for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We had previously expected the RBA to take the cash rate to 2.10 per cent by November," Aird said.
Aird稱：“我們修正了對澳洲央行的核心預估。我們之前預計澳洲央行將在11月前將現金利率調至2.10%。”
"But given the recent strength of the labour market data, coupled with a largely co-ordinated response of central banks globally to raise policy rates quickly, we have amended our profile."
“但鑑於近期勞動力市場數據強勁，再加上全球央行在很大程度上協調一致地迅速提高政策利率，我們修正了我們的形象。”
Aird said if the RBA were to follow this forecast it would be an "incredible pace of tightening".
Aird表示，如果澳大利亞央行遵循這一預測，那將是“令人難以置信的收緊步伐”。
"The starting point was a cash rate of just 0.10 per cent and household debt sits at a record high as a share of income," he said.
“起步點是現金利率僅為0.10%，家庭債務與收入之比處於創紀錄高位，”他表示。
The impact on households with a mortgage will be very significant given the percentage change in the mortgage rate will be incredibly large."
考慮到抵押貸款利率的百分比變化將是令人難以置信的，這對有抵押貸款的家庭的影響將是非常重大的。
Aird said some households with a home loan will be protected, at least initially, if they are on a fixed rate - but that too will come to an end.
Aird表示，一些有住房貸款的家庭將受到保護，至少在一開始是固定利率的-但這種情況也會結束。
"The majority of home borrowers are on floating rate loans and the interest cost on their debt will go up very quickly," Aird said.
Aird表示：“大多數住房借款人都在使用浮動利率貸款，他們的債務利息成本將很快上升。”
"Our updated forecast profile is of course based on what we think the RBA will deliver and not what we believe the RBA should do."
“我們更新的預測資料當然是基於我們認為澳洲央行將提供什麼，而不是我們認為澳洲央行應該做些什麼。”
Mortgages rising
抵押貸款上升
Already mortgage holders are struggling to keep up with the pace of interest rate hikes.
抵押貸款持有者已經在努力跟上加息的步伐。
Analysis from RateCity.com.au found a borrower with a $500,000 mortgage in May, with 25 years remaining, had seen repayments rise by an estimated $333 in total across the three hikes we have already seen this year.
RateCity.com.au的分析發現，5月份還剩25年的50萬美元抵押貸款的借款人，在我們今年已經看到的三次加息中，還款總額估計增加了333美元。
Someone with $1 million remaining on their loan has seen monthly repayments rise by around $665 a month.
一些還剩100萬美元貸款的人，每月還款額增加了約665美元。
"The RBA's rapid-fire rate hikes have rattled consumer sentiment for months," RateCity research director Sally Tindall said.
董事研究機構RateCity的薩利·廷德爾表示：“幾個月來，澳大利亞央行的快速加息已經擾亂了消費者情緒。”
"Part of this could be because homeowners have only just started paying extra on their mortgage as a result of the first hike back in May."
“部分原因可能是房主剛剛開始支付額外的抵押貸款，這是5月份第一次加息的結果。”
