While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited (SZSE:200869) share price up 17% in a single quarter. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. In fact, the share price is down 35%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
While the last five years has been tough for Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Looking back five years, both Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 12% per year. The share price decline of 8% per year isn't as bad as the EPS decline. So investors might expect EPS to bounce back -- or they may have previously foreseen the EPS decline.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
SZSE:200869 Earnings Per Share Growth August 10th 2022
Dive deeper into Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine, it has a TSR of -22% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 6.8% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 10.0%. Given the total loss of 4% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine that you should be aware of.
Of course Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
雖然這對一些股東來説可能還不夠,但我們認為看到煙臺張裕先鋒酒業有限公司(SZSE:200869)股價單季上漲17%。但在過去五年裏,該股表現不佳。事實上,該公司股價下跌了35%,遠低於購買指數基金所能獲得的回報。
雖然過去五年對煙臺張裕先鋒葡萄酒的股東來説是艱難的,但過去一週顯示出了希望的跡象。因此,讓我們看看較長期的基本面,看看它們是否是負回報的驅動因素。
查看我們對煙臺張裕先鋒葡萄酒的最新分析
雖然市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映的是投資者情緒,而不僅僅是潛在的企業表現。評估圍繞一家公司的情緒變化的一個有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。
回顧五年,煙臺張裕先鋒葡萄酒的股價和每股收益都出現了下降,後者以每年12%的速度下降。股價每年8%的跌幅並不像每股收益下跌那麼糟糕。因此,投資者可能會預計每股收益會反彈--或者他們之前可能已經預見到了每股收益的下降。
該公司的每股收益(在一段時間內)如下圖所示(點擊查看具體數字)。
上交所:2022年8月10日每股收益增長200869
通過查看這張煙臺張裕先鋒葡萄酒的收益、收入和現金流的互動圖表,更深入地瞭解煙臺張裕先鋒葡萄酒的關鍵指標。
那股息呢?
在考察投資回報時,重要的是要考慮到股東總回報(TSR)和股價回報。TSR是一種回報計算,計入了現金股息的價值(假設收到的任何股息都進行了再投資),以及任何貼現融資和剝離的計算價值。公平地説,TSR為支付股息的股票提供了更完整的圖景。以煙臺張裕先鋒葡萄酒為例,過去5年的TSR為-22%。這超過了我們之前提到的它的股價回報。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!
不同的視角
雖然虧損從來都不是好事,但煙臺張裕先鋒葡萄酒的股東們可以感到欣慰的是,包括股息在內,他們過去12個月6.8%的虧損沒有市場虧損10.0%左右那麼糟糕。考慮到過去五年每年4%的總虧損,過去12個月的回報率似乎有所下降。雖然一些投資者擅長買入那些陷入困境(但估值仍然被低估)的公司,但不要忘記巴菲特曾説過,扭虧為盈的情況很少出現轉機。跟蹤股價的長期表現總是很有趣的。但要更好地理解煙臺張裕先鋒葡萄酒,我們還需要考慮許多其他因素。例如,我們已經確定1個煙臺張裕先鋒酒警示標誌這一點你應該知道。
當然了煙臺張裕先鋒葡萄酒可能不是最好的股票。所以你可能想看看這個免費成長型股票的集合。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在CN交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。