The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for MMG Limited (HKG:1208), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for MMG from its nine analysts is for revenues of US$3.7b in 2022 which, if met, would be a decent 13% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to crater 43% to US$0.023 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.055 in 2022. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about MMG's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
View our latest analysis for MMG
SEHK:1208 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 28th 2022
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 6.6% to US$0.38. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on MMG, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$5.00 and the most bearish at US$2.20 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting MMG's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 28% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.008% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MMG to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.
A high debt burden combined with a downgrade of this magnitude always gives us some reason for concern, especially if these forecasts are just the first sign of a business downturn. To see more of our financial analysis, you can click through to our free platform to learn more about its balance sheet and specific concerns we've identified.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
最新的分析師報道可能預示着對MMG有限公司(HKG:1208),分析師們一刀切地削減了他們的法定預期,這可能會讓股東有點震驚。營收和每股收益(EPS)預期都被下調,分析師們看到了地平線上的烏雲。
評級下調後,九位分析師對MMG的最新共識是,2022年營收將達到37億美元,如果實現這一目標,將比過去12個月的銷售額可觀增長13%。同期法定每股收益預計將下降43%,至0.023美元。在此次更新之前,分析師一直預測2022年收入為42億美元,每股收益為0.055美元。事實上,我們可以看到,分析師們對五礦資源的前景更加悲觀,他們大幅下調了收入預期,並大幅下調了每股收益預期。
查看我們對MMG的最新分析
聯交所:1208盈利及收入增長2022年8月28日
得知分析師將目標股價下調6.6%至0.38美元,也就不足為奇了。然而,盯着一個單一的價格目標可能是不明智的,因為共識目標實際上是分析師價格目標的平均值。因此,一些投資者喜歡看看預估區間,看看對該公司的估值是否存在分歧意見。對MMG有一些不同的看法,最樂觀的分析師對其估值為5.00美元,最悲觀的分析師估值為每股2.20美元。因此,在這種情況下,我們不會對分析師的價格目標賦予太多可信度,因為對於這項業務能產生什麼樣的表現,顯然存在一些截然不同的觀點。考慮到這一點,我們不會過於依賴共識目標價,因為這只是一個平均值,分析師顯然對該業務有一些嚴重的分歧。
從現在的大局來看,我們能夠理解這些預測的方法之一,是看看它們如何與過去的業績和行業增長預期相比較。分析師們肯定預計五礦資源的增長將會加快,截至2022年底的預測年化增長率為28%,與過去五年0.008%的歷史年增長率相比是有利的。相比之下,我們的數據顯示,類似行業的其他公司(有分析師覆蓋)的收入預計將以每年4.0%的速度增長。顯而易見的是,儘管增長前景比最近一段時間更光明,但分析師們也預計,五礦資源的增長速度將快於整個行業。
底線
最重要的是,分析師們下調了每股收益預期,預計商業環境將出現明顯下滑。不幸的是,分析師也下調了他們的營收預期,儘管我們的數據表明,營收表現預計將好於大盤。考慮到評級下調的範圍,市場對這項業務變得更加警惕並不令人意外。
沉重的債務負擔加上如此規模的降級,總是讓我們有理由感到擔憂,特別是如果這些預測只是商業低迷的第一個跡象。要查看我們的更多財務分析,您可以點擊進入我們的免費平臺,以瞭解更多關於其資產負債表和我們確定的具體問題。
另一件需要考慮的事情是,管理層和董事最近是否一直在買入或賣出股票。我們在我們的平臺上提供了過去12個月所有公開市場股票交易的概述,此處。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。