share_log

3 Stocks to Sell Ahead of the Next Big Rate Hikes

3 Stocks to Sell Ahead of the Next Big Rate Hikes

3只股票將在下一次大幅加息之前拋售
InvestorPlace ·  2022/09/01 06:53

InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips

InvestorPlace-股票市場新聞、股票建議和交易提示

Following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's latest remarks on monetary policy, investors are more concerned with which stocks to sell. The central bank remains committed to continuing hiking interest rates, in its quest to curb inflation. In turn, the market may have a ways to go before truly bottoming out.

在美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾就貨幣政策發表最新言論後,投資者更關心的是賣出哪些股票。央行仍然致力於繼續提高利率,以求遏制通脹。反過來,市場在真正觸底之前可能還有一段路要走。

This points to more volatility ahead of stocks across-the-board. Worse yet, richly-priced growth stocks in particular could see more declines greater than that of the overall market for two reasons.

這表明,在全線股市之前,股市將出現更大的波動。更糟糕的是,價格豐厚的成長型股票尤其可能出現比整體市場更大的跌幅,原因有兩個。

First, higher rates will put even more pressure on their premium valuations. Even if they've already experienced a round or two of severe multiple compression from the Fed's initial increases to interest rates.

首先,更高的利率將給它們的溢價估值帶來更大壓力。即使他們已經經歷了一輪或兩輪從美聯儲最初加息以來的嚴重多重壓縮。

Second, higher rates make the chances of a recession in the coming year even greater. A recession will likely result in many companies experiencing a slowing down of revenue and earnings growth.

其次,更高的利率使得來年經濟衰退的可能性更大。經濟衰退可能會導致許多公司的收入和收益增長放緩。

Downside risk related to these factors is in particular acute with these three stocks to sell. Ahead of a further drop on valuation/slowing growth concerns, consider it a good time to cash out.

與這些因素相關的下行風險尤其嚴重,這三隻股票將被拋售。在對估值/增長放緩的擔憂進一步下降之前,請認為現在是套現的好時機。

ABNB
ABNB
AirBNB
愛彼迎
$113.38
$113.38
CVNA
CVNA
Carvana
Carvana
$33.12 PLTR
33.12美元PLTR
Palantir
帕蘭提爾
$
$
7.79
7.79

AirBNB (ABNB)

愛彼迎(ABNB)

Source: Diego Thomazini / Shutterstock
消息來源:迭戈·託馬齊尼/Shutterstock

After falling nearly 60% during the tech sell-offs earlier this year, shares in vacation rental platform AirBNB (NASDAQ:ABNB) made a meaningful move higher in late July/early August.

在今年早些時候科技股拋售期間下跌近60%後,度假租賃平臺的股價愛彼迎納斯達克(Sequoia Capital:ABNB)在7月底/8月初邁出了有意義的一步。

This largly was the result of the "relief rally" that occurred at the time, built on hopes that Fed pivot on interest would come sooner than expected.

這在很大程度上是當時發生的“釋然性反彈”的結果,這種反彈建立在對美聯儲利率轉向將比預期更早到來的希望上。

Of course, this has proven to be the case. With this, growth names like ABNB stock have slid in recent days. This could continue until if/when a Fed pivot does occur, for exactly the reasons I mentioned above when talking about growth stocks in general.

當然,事實也證明瞭這一點。受此影響,ABNB股票等成長型股票最近幾天出現下滑。這可能會持續到美聯儲真的轉向時,原因正是我在上面討論成長型股票時提到的原因。

While a premium valuation makes sense, given forecasts calling for double-digit revenue and earnings growth, rising rates could put more pressure on AirBNB's forward valuation (52.1x).

雖然溢價估值是有道理的,但考慮到營收和收益將實現兩位數增長的預測,利率上升可能會給愛彼迎的預期估值(52.1倍)帶來更大壓力。

A recession resulting from rising rates could also bring an end to the "revenge travel" trend that was instrumental in its post-pandemic comeback making ABNB among the stocks to sell on recession fears.

利率上升導致的經濟衰退也可能終結“復仇之旅”的趨勢,這種趨勢有助於荷蘭銀行在大流行後捲土重來,使其成為因擔心經濟衰退而拋售的股票之一。

Carvana (CVNA)

Carvana(CVNA)

Source: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock.com
來源:喬納森·韋斯/Shutterstock.com

Already in the stock market junkyard, it may seem as if Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) has little more room to fall from here, let along make a list of the top stocks to sell. The online automotive sales platform is down more than 90% from its high water mark.

已經在股市垃圾場,看起來像是Carvana(紐約證券交易所代碼:CVNA)幾乎沒有更多的下跌空間,讓我們列出一個最值得出售的股票名單。這家在線汽車銷售平臺從其高水位線下跌了90%以上。

Even so, that doesn't mean it can experience another high double-digit price decline. Higher interest rates will make high-growth-but-unprofitable stocks like CVNA stock even less appealing. The company is expected to report high losses this year ($8.61 per share) and next year ($4.72 per share).

即便如此,這並不意味着它可以再次經歷兩位數的價格下跌。更高的利率將使CVNA股票等高增長但無利可圖的股票變得更不具吸引力。預計該公司今年(每股8.61美元)和明年(每股4.72美元)將出現鉅額虧損。

Changing economic conditions have already resulted in the beginning of the end for the used car bubble. It may be just about to pop.

不斷變化的經濟狀況已經開始導致二手車泡沫的終結。它可能就快爆了。

It may be too late to sell into strength, like hedge fund Tiger Global did with its Carvana position earlier this month. Still, you may want to cash out now, as it could re-hit its 52-week low ($19.50 per share).

現在拋售變得強大可能已經太晚了,就像對衝基金老虎全球本月早些時候對其Carvana頭寸所做的那樣。不過,你現在可能想要套現,因為它可能會重新觸及52周低點(每股19.50美元)。

Palantir (PLTR)

帕蘭提爾(Palantir)

Source: Ascannio / Shutterstock.com
來源:Ascannio/Shutterstock.com

Palantir's (NYSE:PLTR) meme stock days have long since passed. Shares now sell for a mere fraction of their all-time high, at the height of "meme stock madness."

Palantir‘s(紐約證券交易所代碼:PLTR)表情包股票日早就過去了。目前股價僅為歷史最高水平的一小部分,達到了“表情包股票狂熱”的頂峯。

Nevertheless, as interest rates continue rising, PLTR stock could continue to slide. At today's prices, the big data firm sells for 143.5x this year's estimated earnings. Yes, this extremely high multiple will come down, assuming it delivers earnings of 16 cents per share next year. This would give it a 47.3x earnings multiple.

然而,隨着利率的繼續上升,PLTR的股票可能會繼續下滑。按今天的價格計算,這家大數據公司的市盈率為今年預期收益的143.5倍。是的,假設明年每股收益為16美分,這一極高的市盈率將會下降。這將使其市盈率達到47.3倍。

That said, it may prove tough to maintain such a high valuation. A few weeks ago, the company underwhelmed investors with its revised outlook.

話雖如此,但事實可能證明,維持如此高的估值可能會很困難。幾周前,該公司修正後的財測並未給投資者留下深刻印象。

Revenues are expected to hit $1.9 billion this year, an only 23.2% increase from 2021. Falling short of CEO Alex Karp's past forecasts of 30% annualized growth through 2025, Palantir may be more deserving now of a far lower forward valuation.

預計今年的收入將達到19億美元,僅比2021年增長23.2%。之前首席執行官亞歷克斯·卡普曾預測,到2025年,Palantir的年化增長率將達到30%,但如果不能實現這一預期,Palantir現在可能更值得獲得更低的遠期估值。

On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版之日,託馬斯·尼爾沒有(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點是作者的觀點,受InvestorPlace.com發佈指南.

Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.

InvestorPlace.com的撰稿人託馬斯·尼爾自2016年以來一直在為基於網絡的出版物撰寫單一股票分析。

The post 3 Stocks to Sell Ahead of the Next Big Rate Hikes appeared first on InvestorPlace.

在下一次大幅加息之前出售的3只股票首先出現在InvestorPlace上。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論