Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 17% in the last quarter. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 30%, less than the market return of 71%.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
See our latest analysis for Valvoline
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Valvoline achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 13% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 5% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 11.67.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
NYSE:VVV Earnings Per Share Growth September 3rd 2022
We know that Valvoline has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Valvoline, it has a TSR of 42% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that Valvoline shares lost 5.3% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 18%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 7% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Valvoline is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are significant...
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valvoline Inc.(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:VVV)的股東在看到股價在上個季度下跌了17%後可能會感到擔憂。從好的方面來看,該公司股價在過去五年裏有所上漲。然而,我們並不是很印象深刻,因為股價只上漲了30%,低於71%的市場回報率。
因此,讓我們來調查一下,看看該公司的長期表現是否與基礎業務的發展一致。
查看我們對Valvoline的最新分析
本傑明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的原話是:短期內,市場是一臺投票機,但從長遠來看,它是一臺稱重機。考察市場情緒如何隨時間變化的一種方法是觀察一家公司的股價和每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。
在股價增長的五年中,Valvoline實現了每股複合收益(EPS)每年13%的增長。這一每股收益增長高於股價年均5%的漲幅。因此,這些天市場對該股的熱情似乎不那麼高。這種謹慎的情緒反映在其11.67的(相當低的)市盈率上。
您可以在下圖中看到EPS是如何隨着時間的推移而變化的(單擊圖表可查看精確值)。
紐約證券交易所:VVV每股收益增長2022年9月3日
我們知道Valvoline最近提高了利潤,但它會增加收入嗎?你可以看看這個免費顯示分析師收入預測的報告。
那股息呢?
在考察投資回報時,重要的是要考慮到股東總回報(TSR)和股價回報。TSR包括任何剝離或貼現融資的價值,以及任何股息,基於股息再投資的假設。可以説,TSR更全面地描繪了一隻股票產生的回報。就Valvoline而言,它在過去5年的TSR為42%。這超過了我們之前提到的它的股價回報。該公司支付的股息因此提振了總計股東回報。
不同的視角
雖然看到Valvoline的股價全年下跌5.3%當然令人失望,但這並不像市場下跌18%那麼糟糕。當然,長期回報要重要得多,好消息是,在過去的五年裏,該股的年回報率為7%。在最好的情況下,去年只是通向更光明未來的旅途中的一個暫時的轉折點。雖然值得考慮市場狀況對股價可能產生的不同影響,但還有其他更重要的因素。即便如此,請注意Valvoline正在展示我們的投資分析中的4個警告信號,其中兩個是重要的……
當然了,如果你把目光投向別處,你可能會發現這是一筆很棒的投資。所以讓我們來看看這個免費我們預計收益將會增長的公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。