The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies BOC Aviation Limited (HKG:2588) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for BOC Aviation
How Much Debt Does BOC Aviation Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that BOC Aviation had US$16.2b of debt in June 2022, down from US$17.1b, one year before. However, it does have US$455.7m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$15.8b.
SEHK:2588 Debt to Equity History September 13th 2022
A Look At BOC Aviation's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that BOC Aviation had liabilities of US$2.82b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$15.1b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$455.7m and US$209.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$17.2b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$5.47b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, BOC Aviation would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Weak interest cover of 2.5 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 19.2 hit our confidence in BOC Aviation like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Fortunately, BOC Aviation grew its EBIT by 7.6% in the last year, slowly shrinking its debt relative to earnings. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine BOC Aviation's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, BOC Aviation burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, BOC Aviation's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think BOC Aviation has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for BOC Aviation (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
伯克希爾哈撒韋的外部基金經理理想汽車·盧直言不諱地説,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。因此,當你考慮到任何一隻股票的風險有多大時,你需要考慮債務可能是顯而易見的,因為太多的債務可能會讓一家公司倒閉。與許多其他公司一樣中銀航空有限公司(HKG:2588)利用債務。但股東是否應該擔心它的債務使用情況?
債務會帶來什麼風險?
一般來説,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成為一個真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資金還是用自己的現金流。在最糟糕的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人的債務,它可能會破產。儘管這並不常見,但我們確實經常看到負債累累的公司永久性地稀釋股東的權益,因為貸款人迫使他們以令人沮喪的價格籌集資金。然而,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本投資於高回報率增長的企業來説,債務可以成為一個非常好的工具。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先同時考慮現金和債務水平。
查看我們對中銀航空的最新分析
中銀航空揹負着多少債務?
你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數據,但它顯示,中銀航空在2022年6月的債務為162億美元,低於一年前的171億美元。然而,它確實有4.557億美元的現金來抵消這一點,導致淨債務約為158億美元。
聯交所:2588債轉股歷史2022年9月13日
中銀航空負債問題管窺
放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,中銀航空有28.2億美元的負債在12個月內到期,超過12個月的負債有151億美元到期。另一方面,它有4.557億美元的現金和價值2.09億美元的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,它的負債比現金和(近期)應收賬款之和高出172億美元。
這一不足給這家市值54.7億美元的公司本身帶來了沉重的負擔,就像一個孩子在一個裝滿書籍、運動裝備和小號的巨大揹包的重壓下掙扎一樣。因此,毫無疑問,我們會密切關注它的資產負債表。畢竟,如果中銀航空今天不得不償還債權人債務,它很可能需要進行一次大規模的資本重組。
我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們債務相對於收益的水平。第一個是淨債務除以利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA),第二個是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息覆蓋)的多少倍。這種方法的優點是,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(淨債務與EBITDA之比),也考慮了與債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。
2.5倍的低利息覆蓋率以及19.2的令人不安的高淨債務與EBITDA之比打擊了我們對中銀航空的信心。這意味着我們會認為它有沉重的債務負擔。幸運的是,中銀航空去年息税前利潤增長了7.6%,債務相對於收益的比例慢慢縮小。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但中銀航空未來能否保持健康的資產負債表,最重要的將是未來的盈利狀況。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
最後,一家公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。因此,有必要檢查這筆息税前利潤中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去的三年裏,中銀航空燒掉了大量現金。儘管投資者無疑預計這種情況會在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着它使用債務的風險更大。
我們的觀點
從表面上看,中銀航空將息税前利潤轉換為自由現金流讓我們對該股持懷疑態度,其總負債水平並不比一年中最繁忙之夜的一家空蕩蕩的餐廳更具誘惑力。但至少它在息税前利潤增長方面相當不錯;這是令人鼓舞的。在考慮了討論的數據點後,我們認為中銀航空的債務太多。雖然一些投資者喜歡這種冒險的投資方式,但這肯定不是我們喜歡的類型。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。例如,我們發現中銀航空的2個警示標誌(1讓我們有點不舒服!)在這裏投資之前你應該意識到這一點。
如果你對一家增長迅速、資產負債表堅如磐石的公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金成長型股票清單。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。