Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in China Conch Venture Holdings Limited (HKG:586) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 63%. That's disappointing when you consider the market declined 22%. To make matters worse, the returns over three years have also been really disappointing (the share price is 53% lower than three years ago). Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 21% in the last 90 days. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 19% in the same period.
After losing 8.2% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
See our latest analysis for China Conch Venture Holdings
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Unhappily, China Conch Venture Holdings had to report a 12% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 63% share price fall. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 3.66.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
SEHK:586 Earnings Per Share Growth September 28th 2022
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of China Conch Venture Holdings, it has a TSR of -47% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 22% in the twelve months, China Conch Venture Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 47% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 6%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for China Conch Venture Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.
But note: China Conch Venture Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
被動投資指數基金是確保你自己的回報與整體市場大致匹配的好方法。雖然個別股票可能是大贏家,但更多的股票無法產生令人滿意的回報。投資者在海螺創業控股有限公司(HKG:586)去年股價下跌了63%,嚐到了苦澀的苦果。當你考慮到市場下跌了22%時,這是令人失望的。更糟糕的是,三年來的回報也真的令人失望(股價比三年前低了53%)。股東們最近的表現更加艱難,股價在過去90天裏下跌了21%。但這可能與市場疲軟有關,同期市場下跌19%。
在過去一週下跌8.2%後,有必要調查該公司的基本面,看看我們可以從過去的表現中推斷出什麼。
查看我們對海螺創業控股的最新分析
不可否認,市場有時是有效的,但價格並不總是反映潛在的商業表現。通過比較每股收益(EPS)和股價隨時間的變化,我們可以感受到投資者對一家公司的態度隨着時間的推移發生了怎樣的變化。
不幸的是,海螺創業控股不得不報告去年每股收益下降了12%。每股收益的減少並不像63%的股價下跌那麼糟糕。因此,一年前,市場似乎對這項業務過於自信。這種不那麼有利的情緒反映在該公司目前3.66的市盈率上。
您可以在下圖中看到EPS是如何隨着時間的推移而變化的(單擊圖表可查看精確值)。
聯交所:每股盈利增長586 2022年9月28日
可能值得注意的是,首席執行官的薪酬低於類似規模公司的中位數。關注首席執行官的薪酬總是值得的,但更重要的問題是,該公司是否會在未來幾年實現盈利增長。在買賣股票之前,我們總是建議仔細檢查一下歷史增長趨勢,可在此處找到。
那股息呢?
在考察投資回報時,重要的是要考慮到股東總回報(TSR)和股價回報。雖然股價回報只反映股價的變動,但TSR包括股息的價值(假設股息再投資),以及任何折價集資或分拆所帶來的利益。公平地説,TSR為支付股息的股票提供了更完整的圖景。以海螺創業控股為例,其最近一年的總資產收益率為-47%。這超過了我們之前提到的它的股價回報。該公司支付的股息因此提振了總計股東回報。
不同的視角
雖然大盤在過去12個月裏下跌了約22%,但海螺創業控股的股東表現更糟,損失了47%(甚至包括股息)。話雖如此,在下跌的市場中,一些股票不可避免地會被超賣。關鍵是要密切關注基本面的發展。較長期的投資者不會如此沮喪,因為他們在五年內每年會獲得6%的收益。最近的拋售可能是一個機會,因此可能值得查看基本面數據,以尋找長期增長趨勢的跡象。我發現,把股價作為衡量企業業績的長期指標是非常有趣的。但為了真正獲得洞察力,我們還需要考慮其他信息。一個恰當的例子:我們發現了海螺創業控股的2個警告信號你應該意識到,其中有一個是不應該被忽視的。
但請注意:海螺創業控股可能不是最值得買入的股票。所以讓我們來看看這個免費過去有盈利增長(以及進一步增長預測)的有趣公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。