We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But along the way some stocks are going to perform badly. For example the Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Limited (HKG:563) share price dropped 71% over five years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 26% in the last three months. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 16% in the same period.
After losing 17% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
See our latest analysis for Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
While the share price declined over five years, Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 4.2% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, five years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SEHK:563 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 7th 2022
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group, it has a TSR of -63% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 17% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 24%. What is more upsetting is the 10% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. This sort of share price action isn't particularly encouraging, but at least the losses are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group (1 is significant) that you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
我們認為，明智的長期投資是一條可行的道路。但在此過程中，一些股票的表現將很糟糕。例如，上海工業城市發展集團有限公司(HKG：563)股價在五年內下跌了71%。至少可以説，這是非常不理想的。股價最近加速下跌，在過去三個月裏下跌了26%。但這可能與疲軟的市場有關，同期市場下跌了16%。
在過去一週下跌17%之後，有必要調查一下該公司的基本面，看看我們可以從過去的表現中推斷出什麼。
查看我們對上海工業城市發展集團的最新分析
用巴菲特的話説，“船隻將在世界各地航行，但平坦的地球協會將蓬勃發展。市場上的價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大的差異……”一種不完美但簡單的方法來考慮市場對一家公司的看法是如何改變的，那就是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。
儘管股價在五年內下跌，但上海工業城市發展集團實際上成功地增加每股收益平均每年增長4.2%。因此，每股收益似乎並不能很好地指導人們理解市場對股票的估值。或者，增長預期在過去可能是不合理的。
通過瀏覽這些數字，我們可以假設，五年前，市場曾預期會有更高的增長。看看其他指標可能更好地解釋了股價的變化。
我們注意到，股息一直保持健康，因此這並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。我們目前還不清楚為什麼股價會下跌，但進一步的研究可能會提供一些答案。
下圖顯示了收益和收入隨時間的變化情況(如果您點擊該圖，您可以看到更多詳細信息)。
聯交所：563盈利及收入增長2022年10月7日
資產負債表的強健至關重要。也許很值得一看我們的免費報告其財務狀況如何隨着時間的推移而發生變化。
那股息呢？
重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的總股東回報以及股價回報。TSR包括任何剝離或貼現融資的價值，以及任何股息，基於股息再投資的假設。因此，對於支付豐厚股息的公司來説，TSR往往比股價回報高得多。以上海工業城市發展集團為例，過去5年的總資產收益率為-63%。這超過了我們之前提到的它的股價回報。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果！
不同的視角
雖然虧損從來都不是好事，但上海工業城市發展集團的股東們可以感到欣慰的是，包括股息在內，他們過去12個月的17%的虧損並沒有市場上24%左右的虧損那麼糟糕。更令人沮喪的是，投資者在過去五年裏遭受了每年10%的損失。這種股價走勢並不特別鼓舞人心，但至少損失正在放緩。跟蹤股價的長期表現總是很有趣的。但要更好地理解上海工業城市發展集團，我們還需要考慮許多其他因素。例如，我們已經確定上海工業城市發展集團的三個警示標誌(1是重要的)，您應該知道。
如果你喜歡和管理層一起買股票，那麼你可能會喜歡這本書免費公司名單。(提示：內部人士一直在買入這些股票)。
請注意，本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎？擔心內容嗎？ 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者，也可以給編輯組發電子郵件，地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫，具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論，我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
