It's nice to see the Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU) share price up 13% in a week. The stock is actually down over the last year. But at least it bettered the loss of 24% in its market.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last year, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
See our latest analysis for Kaiser Aluminum
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Even though the Kaiser Aluminum share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past. Extraordinary items have impacted profits over the last twelve months.
It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.
We don't see any weakness in the Kaiser Aluminum's dividend so the steady payout can't really explain the share price drop. The revenue trend doesn't seem to explain why the share price is down. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
NasdaqGS:KALU Earnings and Revenue Growth October 21st 2022
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Kaiser Aluminum, it has a TSR of -23% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Kaiser Aluminum shareholders are down 23% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the market return of -24%. Unfortunately, last year's performance is a deterioration of an already poor long term track record, given the loss of 2% per year over the last five years. Weak performance over the long term usually destroys market confidence in a stock, but bargain hunters may want to take a closer look for signs of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Kaiser Aluminum , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
很高興能看到凱撒鋁業公司(納斯達克:KALU)股價在一週內上漲了13%。在過去的一年裏,該公司的股票實際上是下跌的。但至少它在其市場上損失了24%。
儘管過去一週對股東來説更令人放心,但他們在過去一年仍然處於虧損狀態,所以讓我們看看基礎業務是否對股價下跌負有責任。
查看我們對凱撒鋁業的最新分析
不可否認,市場有時是有效的,但價格並不總是反映潛在的商業表現。一種不完美但簡單的方法來考慮市場對一家公司的看法是如何改變的,那就是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。
儘管凱撒鋁業的股價在過去一年裏有所下降,但其每股收益實際上有所改善。過去的增長預期很有可能是不合理的。在過去的12個月裏,非常項目影響了利潤。
令人驚訝的是,儘管每股收益有所改善,但股價卻下跌了這麼多。因此,很容易證明看看其他一些指標是合理的。
我們沒有看到凱撒鋁業的股息有任何疲軟,因此穩定的派息並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。營收趨勢似乎無法解釋股價下跌的原因。當然,除非市場預期收入會上升。
該公司的收入和收益(隨着時間的推移)如下圖所示(點擊查看具體數字)。
NasdaqGS:KALU收益和收入增長2022年10月21日
資產負債表的強健至關重要。也許很值得一看我們的免費報告其財務狀況如何隨着時間的推移而發生變化。
那股息呢?
在考察投資回報時,重要的是要考慮到股東總回報(TSR)和股價回報。TSR包括任何剝離或貼現融資的價值,以及任何股息,基於股息再投資的假設。可以説,TSR更全面地描繪了一隻股票產生的回報。以凱撒鋁業為例,它在過去一年的總資產收益率為-23%。這超過了我們之前提到的它的股價回報。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種差異是沒有好處的!
不同的視角
凱撒鋁業的股東在過去12個月裏下跌了23%(甚至包括股息),距離-24%的市場回報率不遠。不幸的是,考慮到過去五年每年2%的虧損,去年的業績是對本已糟糕的長期記錄的惡化。長期表現疲軟通常會摧毀市場對一隻股票的信心,但逢低買入者可能希望更仔細地尋找好轉的跡象。我發現,把股價作為衡量企業業績的長期指標是非常有趣的。但為了真正獲得洞察力,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,考慮一下無處不在的投資風險幽靈。我們已經確定了兩個警告信號與凱撒鋁業合作,瞭解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。
當然了,如果你把目光投向別處,你可能會發現這是一筆很棒的投資。所以讓我們來看看這個免費我們預計收益將會增長的公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。