Supply Chain Silver Lining: Samsung's Production Cut to Benefit Micron and Restore Balance, Say Analysts
Supply Chain Silver Lining: Samsung's Production Cut to Benefit Micron and Restore Balance, Say Analysts
Mizuho analyst John Vinh reiterates an Overweight rating on $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ with a price target of $70.
$Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (SSNLF.US)$ reported during its preliminary 1Q23 earnings guidance on April 7, with 1Q revenue of 63 trillion KRW below consensus of 65.1 trillion KRW and EBIT of 0.6 trillion KRW below consensus of 1.41 trillion KRW.
With EBIT so negatively impacted, Samsung indicated it would cut memory chip production to a "meaningful level" and has reduced short-term production plans while continuing to invest in long-term infrastructure, e.g., cleanrooms, and to expand R&D.
Although near-term demand and pricing dynamics remain challenging, the analyst is encouraged by this long-awaited production cut as this will likely facilitate a quicker return to supply-demand balance and potential rebound.
It would also primarily remove investors' concern about irrational supply behavior and help regain confidence regarding disciplined Capex investments in memory.
Vinh views this announcement as positive for Micron.
Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri reiterates Outperform on Micron. The analyst's recent conversations in Asia suggested that Samsung previously targeted single-digit percent output reduction through line optimization.
The analyst writes that the new announcement brings production cuts to a 10-20% level in DRAM and NAND. While that is still smaller than some peer actions, it could have a more significant impact on near-term industry supply given Samsung's size (~45% share in DRAM, ~35% share in NAND).
In addition, Samsung's actions support his view that the company is not aggressively chasing market share (even though it appears to be maintaining its capex plans).
Pajjuri expects Samsung's cuts to accelerate Memory price recovery and is optimistic that the severity of the current downturn will lead to structurally better supply discipline in the industry.
Price Action: MU shares traded higher by 8.04% at $63.27 on the last check Monday.
瑞穗市 分析師約翰榮（John Vinh）重申了「超重」評級 $美光科技 (MU.US)$ 目標價格為 70 美元。
$三星電子 (SSNLF.US)$ 根據 4 月 7 日的第一季度第一季度收益指引初步報告，第一季度營收達 63 萬億韓元，低於 65.1 萬億韓元的共識，息稅前利潤為 0.6 萬億韓元低於 1.41 萬億韓元的共識。
由於 EBIT 受到負面影響，三星表示將會將記憶體晶片的產量減至「有意義的水平」，並減少短期生產計畫，同時繼續投資於長期的基礎設施，例如潔淨室，並擴大研發。
儘管短期的需求和價格動態仍然具有挑戰性，但這種期待已久的減產令分析師感到鼓舞，因為這可能有助於更快地恢復供需平衡和潛在反彈。
它還將主要消除投資者對非理性供應行為的擔憂，並幫助重新獲得有關紀律性資本支出投資於記憶體的信心。
Vinh 認為此公告對美光是正面的。
雷蒙德詹姆斯分析師斯里尼 Pajjuri 重申在美光的「跑贏大市」。這位分析師最近在亞洲進行的對話建議，三星以前通過線路優化針對單位輸出減少的百分比。
該分析師寫道，新的公告帶來了生產削減到 DRAM 和 NAND 的 10-20％ 水平。儘管這仍然比某些同行動要小，但鑑於三星的規模（DRAM 中約 45％ 的份額，在 NAND 中的份額約為 35％），它可能對近期行業供應產生更大的影響。
此外，三星的行動支持他認為該公司並沒有積極追逐市場份額（即使它似乎在維持其資本支出計劃）。
Pajjuri 預計三星的削減將加速內存價格復蘇，並且樂觀地認為，當前經濟衰退的嚴重程度將導致行業在結構上更好的供應紀律。
價格行動： MU 股票在上次檢查星期一上漲 8.04%，報 63.27 美元。